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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 64 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Monday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
905 PM MST Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis...a low pressure system over the Pacific northwest will 
maintain a dry southwesterly flow across Southeast Arizona through 
the Holiday weekend. Expect some increase in clouds with breezy 
to locally windy conditions Monday through Wednesday as a 
disturbance moves across the area. Slightly cooler daytime 
temperatures will occur by the middle of next week. 


&& 


Discussion...infrared satellite imagery and surface observations 
indicated a few-to-scattered cirriform clouds from the Tucson metropolitan 
area eastward to the New Mexico border at this time. Clear skies 
prevailed across western/central Pima County and south-central Pinal 
County. Surface winds had diminished to generally less than 10 miles per hour 
across much of Southeast Arizona. 


Have maintained mostly clear skies for the rest of tonight generally 
from Tucson eastward/southward with clear skies across western sections. Mostly 
sunny skies to then occur Saturday with some cirriform clouds to 
move across the area. High temperatures Saturday will average within a few 
degrees of normal. Please refer to the previous discussion section 
below for additional detail. 


&& 


Previous discussion /210 PM MST Friday may 24 2013/...persistent pattern 
continues through the Holiday weekend with southwest flow aloft 
bringing afternoon breezes and near normal high temperatures. After 
that the main forecast challenge concerns the amount of energy that 
will dive southward toward Arizona during the middle of next week. 


Comparison of 00z and 12z GFS model runs shows decent consistency 
with the latitude of the open trough crossing in the intermountain 
west. Meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) continues tracking a closed low across 
Arizona. The GFS ensemble members were fairly consistent with a high 
relative measure of probability value showing up for the 00z 
solution at 12z Wednesday. 


With the above in mind...not deviating from the more 
climatologically representative GFS solution of an open trough 
passing across Arizona next week although would not be surprised if 
later GFS versions deepen slightly. In any event...the trough should 
enhance winds Mon-Wed. Some cooling also expected with high 
temperatures around five degrees below normal by Wednesday. Whether 
it is any cooler than that will depend on the amount of cloud cover 
present or if low/trough drops farther south. It would not be out of 
the question to see light rain or sprinkles as this trough 
passes...and perhaps even thunderstorms. At this time the chances 
for measurable precipitation still too low to introduce into the 
forecast though. 


&& 


Aviation...skc-sct clouds above 20k feet above ground level through Saturday evening or 
26/06z. Surface wind late Saturday morning into early Saturday 
evening southwesterly 12-18 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Otherwise... 
surface wind mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not 
updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...a trough of low pressure over the Pacific northwest 
will result in a dry weather pattern for Southeast Arizona into 
early next week. Expect southwest winds with a few stronger gusts 
during the afternoon and early evening hours this weekend. 
Otherwise...expect some increase in clouds with breezy to locally 
windy conditions Monday through Wednesday as a disturbance moves 
across the region. Slightly cooler daytime temperatures will occur 
by the middle of next week. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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Discussion...bf 
previous discussion...kd 
aviation/fire weather...CR