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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 100 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 75 °
• Clear

• Monday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 72 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
130 PM MST Sat may 25 2013 


Update...updated aviation discussion. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
dry and warm conditions will persist across the region through the 
Memorial Day Holiday weekend. A quick moving low pressure system is 
expected to affect the Desert Southwest next Tuesday and Wednesday 
bringing cooler than normal temperatures and breezy to windy 
conditions. A warming trend with continued dry air in place should 
move in for late next week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
visible/infrared satellite reveals a few high clouds drifting across the 
region this morning. Surface conditions remain warm and dry...dew 
point temperatures in the 20s across the southwest Arizona deserts...somewhat 
higher into the 30s across southeast California. The ktwc sounding 
profiles over the past several days do show a repeated shallow 
moisture seep in the 800-700mb layer due to a stronger nocturnal low 
level southerly flow...but other than that...not much in the way of 
atmospheric moisture for any cloud development to Mar the sunny 
forecast on tap for our area. Regional upper air plots over the past 
24 hours show a 20-30mb increase in 500mb heights...and with the 
dry conditions...sunshine and mixing potential...afternoon temperatures 
should heat up once again close to the century mark for some of our 
warmer desert sites. The inherited forecast grids capture the 
current observations and model trends...no changes needed to the 
forecast at this time. 


Previous discussion... 
a few more days of this blocking weather pattern is expected as 
southwesterly flow aloft dominates the Desert Southwest and 
shortwave energy pinwheels around the large stationary low over the 
Pacific northwest. The last couple days have been a degree or two 
warmer than forecast...most likely due to slightly higher heights 
across the region and efficient daytime mixing under the breezy 
conditions. Given this trend...have bumped up highs today a bit with 
most Lower Desert spots nearing the century mark. This should be the 
last day of above normal temperatures through middle next week as the 
next weather system will dive much further south. A couple minor 
shortwave impulses help to bring down heights and temperatures 
beginning Sunday and Monday...one tracking across the Great Basin on 
Sunday and another coming onshore in Southern California on Monday. 
This should allow for at least some high cloudiness and highs 2-5 
degrees cooler than normal with the coolest temperatures across our 
western zones. 


The track and strength of the main weather feature that we have been 
following over the past couple days is still somewhat 
uncertain...but overall...models are starting to come to a 
consensus. The European is slightly stronger...further south...and 
more moist than the GFS...but at least the operational run and each 
model/S ensemble members show less spread than the last couple days. 
The current forecast reflects a fairly even blend between the two 
solutions with the main shortwave trough tracking through the 
northern half of Arizona Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This 
track will definitely bring in cooler air...but not quite as much as 
models had been showing the past several runs. Moisture availability 
will still be on the fairly low side and with a track to our 
north...any precipitation chances will generally be confined to the 
northern half of the state. Forecast confidence in this solution is 
much better than the several days...but there is always still room 
for adjustments to be made. The system will also bring increased 
winds...but current thinking is speeds should remain well below 
advisory strength. 


For late next week...a northwest to westerly upper flow is likely 
across the Desert Southwest with a broad trough across the central 
United States. This should lead to a moderating of temperatures for 
Thursday and Friday with highs returning to around or slightly above 
seasonal normals. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona...including kphx...kiwa...ksdl...southeast 
California/southwest Arizona...including kipl and kblh... 


Few-scattered cirrus expected through Sunday at all taf sites. In the 
Phoenix area...wind gusts will reach 20 knots late this afternoon and 
early this evening before diminishing around 03z. Typical drainage 
flow less than 10 knots expected overnight...followed by a 
redevelopment of the upslope flow Sunday afternoon...though somewhat 
weaker. Typical southwest and west winds anticipated in southeast California as 
well. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Monday through Friday... 
low pressure along the West Coast will begin to push inland over the 
Desert Southwest late Monday...then slowly move eastward across the 
region on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result...temperatures are 
expected to fall from the middle and upper 90s on Monday into the upper 
80s and low 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower deserts. 
Although some increase in the wind speeds can also be expected on 
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon...slightly higher humidities will 
keep fire danger values from reaching critical levels. Temperatures 
will then recover to near-normal values on Thursday and 
Friday...with a return to single digit daytime humidities...and 
lighter winds as a dry westerly flow returns to the region. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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Discussion...Meyers/Kuhlman 
aviation...Hirsch 
fire weather...percha