Surprise, Arizona Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 100°
  • Clear
  • Wind: Variable 5 mph
  • Humidity: 21%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 54°
  • Pressure: 29.78 in. -
  • Heat Index: 98

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Next 12 Hours

4  pm
7  pm
10  pm
1  am
4  am
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Overcast
Overcast
105°
103°
96°
92°
89°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 106 °
  • Low: 85 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Wednesday
  • Overcast
  • High: 103 °
  • Low: 83 °
  • Overcast
  • Thursday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 106 °
  • Low: 86 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Friday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 108 °
  • Low: 85 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 110 °
  • Low: 85 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Surprise, Arizona

Updated: 11:03 AM MST on January 28, 2015

  • Tuesday

    Sun and clouds mixed. High 106F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Partly cloudy this evening, then becoming cloudy after midnight. Low near 85F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Overcast. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 103F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 83F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly to mostly cloudy. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 106F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    A few clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Low 86F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 108F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Friday Night

    A few clouds. Low near 85F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy skies. High near 110F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    A few clouds. Low around 85F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy skies. High around 110F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low around 85F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday

    Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 109F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Mostly clear skies. Low near 85F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Mostly sunny skies. High 109F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    A few clouds from time to time. Low around 85F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy. High 109F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    A few clouds. Low around 85F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy skies. High 107F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy skies. Low 83F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Friday

    Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 104F. Winds SSW at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy skies. Low 82F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Kingswood Parke, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 104.0 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 25% Wind: East at 3.5 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City Grand, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:42 PM MST

Temperature: 106.3 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 26% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 111 °F Graphs

Location: Legacy Parc, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 105.1 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 24% Wind: SW at 4.0 mph Pressure: 30.12 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 107 °F Graphs

Location: Legacy Parc, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:39 PM MST

Temperature: 106.1 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 21% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 107 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:42 PM MST

Temperature: 109.0 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 21% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 111 °F Graphs

Location: Palm Ridge, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 106.2 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 19% Wind: WNW at 3.0 mph Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 105 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:41 PM MST

Temperature: 106.2 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 21% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.63 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 107 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela - Trevi, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:37 PM MST

Temperature: 106.3 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 20% Wind: South at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: Copper Canyon Ranch, Waddell, AZ

Updated: 2:42 PM MST

Temperature: 105.4 °F Dew Point: 60 °F Humidity: 22% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 106.5 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 19% Wind: SE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City Grand The Manors, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:41 PM MST

Temperature: 112.6 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 20% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 116 °F Graphs

Location: Sycamore Estates, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:40 PM MST

Temperature: 104.2 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 22% Wind: WSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City West, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 112.8 °F Dew Point: 5 °F Humidity: 2% Wind: SW at 4.7 mph Pressure: 28.59 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 103 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 2:14 PM MST

Temperature: 105 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 20% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Sun Dial I, El Mirage, AZ

Updated: 2:39 PM MST

Temperature: 107.2 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 19% Wind: SE at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 107 °F Graphs

Location: Arizona Traditions, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 104.2 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 10% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 99 °F Graphs

Location: SUN CITY WEST, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 105.1 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 21% Wind: East at 1.1 mph Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 105 °F Graphs

Location: Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 103.1 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 24% Wind: NNE at 7.0 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Arizona Traditions, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:36 PM MST

Temperature: 104.5 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 22% Wind: NE at 4.7 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 105 °F Graphs

Location: Sarah Ann Ranch, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:38 PM MST

Temperature: 106.7 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 19% Wind: East at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 106 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City - Phase Two, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 106.9 °F Dew Point: 59 °F Humidity: 21% Wind: SE at 3.8 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 108 °F Graphs

Location: Crossriver, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 2:41 PM MST

Temperature: 105.7 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 20% Wind: East at 3.1 mph Pressure: 28.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 105 °F Graphs

Location: South West Weather, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 105.9 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 19% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 105 °F Graphs

Location: 115th and Olive, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 106.2 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 16% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City - W Pineridge / Kings Mtn, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 105.0 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 18% Wind: West at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.57 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 103 °F Graphs

Location: Wildlife World Zoo Area, Litchfield Park, AZ

Updated: 2:34 PM MST

Temperature: 108.0 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 18% Wind: SSE at 6.7 mph Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 107 °F Graphs

Location: WTF Pulte, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 103.7 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 23% Wind: East at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Apollo Village, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 2:43 PM MST

Temperature: 104.4 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 18% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 102 °F Graphs

Location: Desert Oasis at Surprise, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:42 PM MST

Temperature: 104.4 °F Dew Point: 58 °F Humidity: 21% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

Location: Saguaro View, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 2:36 PM MST

Temperature: 107.6 °F Dew Point: 46 °F Humidity: 13% Wind: West at 7.8 mph Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 104 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
228 PM MST Tuesday Jul 28 2015 


Update...updated aviation and fire weather discussions. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
a return to southeasterly flow will bring a gradual increase in 
moisture...allowing shower and thunderstorm chances to slowly 
increase through Thursday. High pressure building over the region 
will then reduce rain chances somewhat into the upcoming 
weekend...but at least slight chances will remain over south-central 
Arizona. Temperatures will remain near normals overall with a slight 
dip below normal for Wednesday and Thursday due to widespread cloud 
coverage. 


&& 


Discussion... 
under southeasterly flow aloft...moisture continues to spread into 
southeast and south-central Arizona with satellite estimated precipitable waters  
between 1.25 and 1.50 inches. Quite a bit of dry air remains below 
650mb with surface dew points early this afternoon still hovering in 
the middle 50s in most locations. Should expect surface dew points to 
lower through this afternoon due to mixing with values dipping to 
between 50-55. Am seeing some showers and thunderstorms forming over 
higher terrain areas of Southeast Arizona and expect this activity to 
increase in coverage...but stay over higher terrain at least through 
early evening. Current steering flow is very light and out of the 
south...so most storms today will remain fairly stationary. The 
biggest concern through the rest of today will be the potential for 
some storm outflows and blowing dust across southern Maricopa and 
northern Pinal counties. 


Attention after this evening then turns toward an inverted trough 
both the GFS and European have been advertising over the past couple 
model runs. As the inverted trough moves into southern Arizona by 
12z Wednesday...the bulk of the deep moisture will be accompanying 
the trough. Hi-res models...especially the hrrr...are currently 
showing some light convective activity moving into south-central 
Arizona late tonight. Have spread slight chance probability of precipitation further to the 
west and north for this time period...but think any rain activity 
will be on the light side. 


Both Wednesday and Thursday still look like the best potential for 
showers and thunderstorms...but confidence in how widespread rainfall 
will be is still on the low side. During the day Wednesday...showers 
and thunderstorms will likely be focused near the inverted trough 
that moves through southern Arizona during the day Wednesday and into 
southeast California Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Typical 
high terrain monsoon activity may be somewhat limited due to the 
potential for extensive cloudiness...but with expected cape values 
near 500 j/kg and some breaks in the clouds...we should still see at 
least isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and 
evening. Threats of blowing dust and localized flooding will be 
possible during this event. Conditions Thursday will be similar to 
Wednesday likely minus the inverted trough. Instability will be 
somewhat limited due to cloud cover and warmer mid-levels...but 
moisture will be plentiful with precipitable waters  remaining near 1.5-1.7 inches. 
Probability of precipitation for Thursday are more broad-brushed due to a lack of a trigger 
but favoring higher terrain areas. High temperatures both Wednesday 
and Thursday will likely fall a bit below normal due to the increased 
moisture and cloud cover. 


Beyond Friday...although there will still be enough monsoon 
moisture to keep up some activity through the weekend and into early 
next week ... combination of less available moisture (pwats only 
in the 1.3-1.4 inch range across south-central az) and warmer middle- 
level temperatures...as the main the upper high positions itself 
pretty much overhead during this entire period...will likely limit 
thunderstorm activity...with pretty much near-climatology probability of precipitation loaded into 
the grids at this time. 


&& 


Aviation... south-central Arizona including kphx...kiwa...and 
ksdl... 


Latest guidance continues to indicate that convection will generally 
remain most concentrated south of the Phoenix area late this 
afternoon and this evening. However...there is a high probability of 
an outflow boundary reaching kiwa/kphx between 04z and 07z...likely 
bringing an abrupt increase in wind with perhaps some reduction in 
visibility due to blowing dust. Looking ahead...a higher likelihood of 
thunderstorm related impacts is anticipated Wednesday. 


Southeast California/southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh... 


Winds will generally remain light and somewhat variable through 
tonight. An outflow boundary may bring an increase in wind and 
moisture late tonight...bringing higher chances of thunderstorms 
Wednesday. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather...Friday through Tuesday... low-level moisture should 
decline somewhat through the weekend...though conditions will remain 
favorable for at least isolated thunderstorm activity across much of 
the region. Less activity is then anticipated early next week as the 
monsoon high shifts westward over Arizona. Winds will remain fairly light 
each day aside from afternoon breeziness and the potential for 
stronger thunderstorm outflow winds. 


&& 


Spotter information statement... 
spotters are encouraged to report conditions according to Standard 
operating procedures. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arizona...none. 
California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...Kuhlman/percha 
aviation...Hirsch 
fire weather...Hirsch 



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