Surprise, Arizona Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 89°
  • Clear
  • Wind: SW 6 mph
  • Humidity: 28%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 53°
  • Pressure: 29.67 in. 0

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Next 12 Hours

11  pm
2  am
5  am
8  am
11  am
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
Clear
88°
82°
79°
84°
97°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Wednesday
  • Clear
  • High: 106 °
  • Low: 82 °
  • Clear
  • Thursday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 102 °
  • Low: 79 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Friday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 102 °
  • Low: 79 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 102 °
  • Low: 77 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Sunday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 99 °
  • Low: 73 °
  • Chance of T-Storms

Forecast for Surprise, Arizona

Updated: 8:00 PM MST on September 02, 2014

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 106F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the WSW in the afternoon.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 77F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 106F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 82F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy. High of 102F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 79F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the afternoon. High of 102F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Friday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. Low of 79F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Saturday

    Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy. High of 102F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain after midnight. Low of 77F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 99F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.

  • Monday

    Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

  • Monday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 72F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 97F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 77F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 97F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 91F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 75F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Kingswood Parke, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 83.7 °F Dew Point: 57 °F Humidity: 40% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Mountain Vista Ranch, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:42 PM MST

Temperature: 82.8 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Legacy Parc, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 85.8 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

Location: Legacy Parc, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:47 PM MST

Temperature: 84.9 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 84.8 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.64 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Sycamore Estates, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:56 PM MST

Temperature: 84.5 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: North at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City West, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 11:56 PM MST

Temperature: 80.4 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 21% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.53 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Sun Dial I, El Mirage, AZ

Updated: 11:56 PM MST

Temperature: 82.8 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 30% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.69 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 81 °F Graphs

Location: Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 83.6 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.63 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Arizona Traditions, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:47 PM MST

Temperature: 83.8 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Sarah Ann Ranch, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 11:47 PM MST

Temperature: 83.1 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City - Phase Two, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 86.5 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: NE at 3.8 mph Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Crossriver, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 11:56 PM MST

Temperature: 85.3 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 28% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: South West Weather, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 85.4 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.60 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest Perkins AZ US, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 10:40 PM MST

Temperature: 85 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 25% Wind: SSE at 2 mph Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 11:52 PM MST

Temperature: 84.0 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 29% Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: 115th and Olive, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 85.5 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 27% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.53 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 83 °F Graphs

Location: Apollo Village, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 85.6 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 31% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.64 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

Location: Fletcher Heights, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 10:16 PM MST

Temperature: 87.1 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 28% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Peoria AZ, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 89.6 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 29% Wind: West at 1.2 mph Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: 83rd Ave & Pinnacle Peak Rd, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 100.2 °F Dew Point: 34 °F Humidity: 10% Wind: North at 6.3 mph Pressure: 28.44 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 95 °F Graphs

Location: PebbleCreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 11:55 PM MST

Temperature: 79.0 °F Dew Point: 27 °F Humidity: 15% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Pebblecreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 86.9 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 28% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.55 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

Location: 107th and Campbell Ave, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 84.2 °F Dew Point: 44 °F Humidity: 25% Wind: West at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 82 °F Graphs

Location: Remmel's Acres, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 11:56 PM MST

Temperature: 78.5 °F Dew Point: 49 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Thunderbird Paseo, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 11:56 PM MST

Temperature: 83.3 °F Dew Point: 10 °F Humidity: 6% Wind: ENE at 1.6 mph Pressure: 28.38 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 81 °F Graphs

Location: Tuscany Falls, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 90.3 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 27% Wind: Calm Pressure: 22.12 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Santa Fe, Avondale, AZ

Updated: 11:57 PM MST

Temperature: 89.6 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 24% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
1035 PM MST Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Update...updated aviation discussion. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
moisture will gradually return to the region beginning 
Thursday...with a much more humid airmass overspreading the area by 
the weekend. Thunderstorm chances will first start over Southeast 
Arizona and the higher terrain to the north and east Thursday...but 
increase significantly over the remainder of the area by the 
weekend. With the increasing moisture...temperature will eventually 
fall back or slightly below average by early next week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
another very warm day is now ending across our County Warning Area...with both 
Phoenix Sky Harbor and Yuma reaching 109 this afternoon...which was 
6 degrees above the normal high of 103 for the date...under clear 
skies. Not much change in the weather is expected on Wednesday as 
high pressure remains over the region with a very dry airmass in 
place. However...there are already signs that a noticeable change to 
cooler and more humid weather is on the way for later this 
week...with the latest satellite imagery now showing ts activity 
just south of the international border as a weak inverted trough moves 
slowly across northern Mexico. Also...Tropical Storm Norbert...which 
is now centered about 320 miles southeast of the southern tip of 
Baja California...continues to slowly move north-northwest and it is now expected to become 
a hurricane by late Thursday as it passes to the south and west of 
Cabo San Lucas...with the potential that at least some of the 
moisture from this tropical system could eventually find its way 
into the Desert Southwest by this weekend. As far as the forecast 
for the rest of this evening and tonight is concerned...other than 
some minor adjustments to the temperature and dewpoint grids to better 
reflect hourly trends...inherited gridded and zone forecasts are 
looking quite good...and no updates are planned. 






&& 


Previous discussion... 
a sprawling high pressure ridge with 500 mb heights near 592dm continues 
to envelop an area from the Southern Plains through southwestern Continental U.S. This 
afternoon (as has been the case for the past several days). 
Subtropical moisture remains trapped through central/southern 
Sonora/Chihuahua with 12z ktwc/kpsr sounding data sampling precipitable waters  
under 0.75 inches and surface-700 mb mixing ratios only in the 5-6 g/kg 
range. Meanwhile...a progressive wave across the Pacific northwest 
and northern/central rockies will actually become the impetus to shift the 
center of the aforementioned subtropical high eastward...allowing a 
deeper southerly monsoon wind component and moisture surge back into 
the southwest late this week into early next week. 


Though tomorrow night...there will be little change in the 
thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere over the entire forecast 
area...and have continued to follow a near persistence forecast. The 
first inklings of moisture return will commence Thursday 
morning...primarily in the midlevels and potentially loosely tied to 
distant outflows from northern Mexico/far southeastern Arizona. Have almost 
completely discounted the recent overzealous GFS quantitative precipitation forecast fields forecast 
for Thursday morning given good agreement of substantial dry air 
still residing in the surface-700 mb layer. Thus while virga and some higher 
elevation sprinkles are possible during the morning hours...have 
hedged closer to a sref/European model (ecmwf) blend focusing far better convective 
initiation chances during afternoon peak heating over higher terrain 
features. Lower elevations may still be a tad too dry Thursday 
evening with boundary layer mixing ratios only sniffing 10 
g/kg...however stronger outflows with blowing dust will still be a 
threat given deep inverted-v sounding profiles. 


The forecast for Friday is a bit trickier...as better low level 
moisture profiles should spread north but the magnitude and 
positioning of upper level support remains in question. One larger 
wild card is the circulation remnants of tropical system Dolly from 
the Gulf of Mexico crossing west over the Mexican peninsula. While 
global models start losing any defined circulation over the 
mountains...there is some evidence of a lingering inverted troughing 
and difluence heading into Chihuahua/Sonora late Friday. Made some 
modest increases to probability of precipitation Friday evening...though holding off the 
more appreciable rainfall chances until the weekend. 


Saturday into early next week...some measure of tropical influence 
is looking more possible as the combination of stronger upper 
difluence (some input from ts dolly) and deeper tropical moisture 
influx from east Pacific tropical system Norbert may meet over the 
forecast area. However...the latest 12z and 18z hurricane center 
consensus model tracks keep the center of Norbert well to the 
southwest of the Baja California peninsula...and moisture influence may be more 
limited or secondary than previous global scale models may have 
presumed. Regardless...precipitation chances were further increased given 
overwhelming operational and ensemble model consensus on moisture 
and cape/Omega fields Sunday and Monday. However given the time 
frame 5 to 6 days out...kept probability of precipitation capped around 50 percent feeling 
one of these days will be very convective active and other 
potentially not so active. 


Some discrepancies remain in moisture placement and influence of dry 
air intruding from a trough to our northwest by the middle of next week. 
Many 12z operational models depict rather rapid drying in northwesterly flow 
as early as Tuesday...though certainly not all ensemble members 
support such an idea of stronger troughing and northwest flow. 
Nevertheless...with the uptick in storm activity and expectation of 
mostly to considerably cloudy skies...a cool down of welcome 
proportions will result for the weekend...with several best 
performing and consensus temperature forecasts cooling much of the 
forecast area below 100f by Monday and beyond. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona including kphx...kiwa...and ksdl...and 
southwest Arizona and southeast California including kipl and kblh... 


High pressure over the region will keep skies mostly clear and winds 
on the light side through Wednesday morning. Increasing southerly 
flow aloft is then expected to push some high cloudiness into the 
region on Wednesday afternoon and evening...with few-scattered cirrus 
cloud layers passing over the terminals from time-to-time. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Friday through Tuesday... 
monsoon moisture will continue to increase and spread westward 
reaching the lower deserts of southeast California by Saturday. 
Storm chances continue through Monday before trending downward 
Tuesday. Humidities will follow a similar trend. 
Meanwhile...temperatures trend downward. Winds will follow familiar 
summertime slope-valley patterns but with significant disruptions 
due to thunderstorm activity. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...percha/MO/Nolte 
aviation...percha 
fire weather...aj 










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