Surprise, Arizona Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 68°
  • Clear
  • Wind: ENE 1 mph
  • Humidity: 29%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 35°
  • Pressure: 29.82 in. +

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Next 12 Hours

5  am
8  am
11  am
2  pm
5  pm
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
63°
70°
77°
79°
75°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Friday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 81 °
  • Low: 61 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 88 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Sunday
  • Clear
  • High: 90 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Clear
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 93 °
  • Low: 63 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 64 °
  • Partly Cloudy

Forecast for Surprise, Arizona

Updated: 2:00 AM MST on April 18, 2014

  • Friday

    Mostly cloudy in the morning, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 81F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Friday Night

    Overcast with a chance of rain in the evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 61F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 88F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear. Low of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 63F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 95F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 20 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 64F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy. High of 82F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 61F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 82F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 55F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 91F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 59F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 90F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 57F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 91F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 57F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Kingswood Parke, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 47% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.56 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Sun City Grand, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:22 AM MST

Temperature: 62.9 °F Dew Point: 39 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Legacy Parc, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Legacy Parc, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:13 AM MST

Temperature: 63.6 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 42% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Sycamore Estates, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 63.4 °F Dew Point: 39 °F Humidity: 40% Wind: ENE at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Sun City West, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 61.5 °F Dew Point: -9 °F Humidity: 5% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.65 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 62.9 °F Dew Point: 33 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: MSM Weather, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 6:13 AM MST

Temperature: 60.5 °F Dew Point: 33 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Arizona Traditions, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:13 AM MST

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 24 °F Humidity: 22% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.96 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Sarah Ann Ranch, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 6:14 AM MST

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 11 °F Humidity: 13% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Sun City - Phase Two, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 65.8 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Reems Ranch, Litchfield Park, AZ

Updated: 6:18 AM MST

Temperature: 62.7 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: SW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: South West Weather, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 65.9 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 35% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Sun City, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 6:17 AM MST

Temperature: 63.7 °F Dew Point: 35 °F Humidity: 34% Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: 115th and Olive, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 34 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Tierra del Rio, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 63.0 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 38% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.67 in Hourly Precipitation: - Graphs

Location: Fletcher Heights, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 64.0 °F Dew Point: 33 °F Humidity: 33% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Coventry Estates, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 64.9 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.11 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: PebbleCreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 64.9 °F Dew Point: 16 °F Humidity: 15% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Pebblecreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 6:00 AM MST

Temperature: 64.8 °F Dew Point: 39 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: PebbleCreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 64.6 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 41% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: 107th and Campbell Ave, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 63.9 °F Dew Point: 36 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: West Terra, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 64.2 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 37% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Thunderbird Paseo, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 6:24 AM MST

Temperature: 65.5 °F Dew Point: 3 °F Humidity: 8% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.50 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Tuscany Falls, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 68.7 °F Dew Point: 43 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: Calm Pressure: 17.16 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Marshall Ranch, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 65.8 °F Dew Point: 37 °F Humidity: 35% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.04 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Glendale Community College, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 6:24 AM MST

Temperature: 66.0 °F Dew Point: 40 °F Humidity: 39% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.52 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: WEST GLEN, GLENDALE, AZ

Updated: 6:18 AM MST

Temperature: 65.9 °F Dew Point: 35 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

Location: Eagle Ridge, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 6:25 AM MST

Temperature: 63.3 °F Dew Point: 25 °F Humidity: 23% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
611 am MST Friday Apr 18 2014 


Update...updated aviation and fire weather discussion. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
a Pacific storm system will move into the area starting today 
bringing extensive clouds...increasing moisture and localized 
chances for showers through Saturday afternoon. Through 
tonight...any rainfall will be focused mainly over higher terrain 
locations...with sprinkles more likely across the deserts. Better 
chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur on Saturday across 
central and eastern Arizona. Daytime temperatures today and Saturday 
will fall to more seasonal values...however quickly warm back well 
into the 90s early next week after the storm system has passed. 


&& 


Discussion... 
a seasonably vigorous shortwave trough has progressed to near the 
121w latitude early this morning...with the small pv anomaly core 
tucked in the basal portion of the wave around 25n. Objective 
analysis suggests a -16c to -18c 500 mb cold core remains situated in 
the upstream northerly flow quadrant...with the eastern section of the 
wave structure characterized by deep meridional warm moist 
advection. This configuration may mean further deepening and future 
negative tilt ejection of the wave into the forecast area. Jet 
difluence ahead of the wave looks impressive on WV imagery partially 
tapping a narrow plume of subtropical moisture and becoming 
manifested in a baroclinic Leaf type structure (further evidence of 
the potency of this system). 


With moist meridional flow and upward vertical velocity in the 600-400mb layer already 
established ahead of the wave...thicker cloud cover will hold over 
the region today. Both GOES and AMSU total precipitable water analysis show a 
corridor of 1.0 inch amounts advecting towards the forecast area 
originating west of the Baja California corridor. Forecast soundings suggest 
much of this moisture is either aloft above the 700 mb layer...or very 
shallow below the h9 layer with notable dry air trapped between. In 
addition...with the introduction of this moisture...midlevel lapse 
rates will suffer limiting any instability based aid towards deeper 
vertical motions. Thus...despite the robust synoptic scale ascent 
throughout the day in association with vorticity advection...much of 
the hydrometeors may be lost as virga. Exceptions to this analysis 
may be across southeastern California where the cold core aloft will begin 
to interact with the heated surface allowing better instability late in 
the afternoon...and over high terrain northeast of Phoenix where the 
subcloud dry layer will be naturally reduced by elevation. 
Regardless...with the presence of extensive virga and vertical 
motions throughout the column...gusty outflow winds remain a concern 
throughout the area during the daylight hours. 


Friday night though Saturday afternoon...the cold core aloft pulls 
to the east of the shortwave and becomes better aligned with the pv 
anomaly as the bulk of the entire wave lifts and ejects over 
Arizona. During this transition...renewed vorticity advection and 
ascent will rotate through the trough while lapse rates steepen in 
the presence of residual moisture. A few high resolution models and 
sref probabilities suggest the first wave of upward vertical velocity/showers rotating 
north into central Arizona as early as sunrise Saturday. Surface heating 
under the cold core during the day may very well lead to substantial 
instability (sbcape at or above 250 j/kg and Li/S at or below -2)...especially over 
higher terrain. Conceptually and evidentially through model 
output...probability of precipitation were increased significantly for points east of 
Phoenix Saturday afternoon. 


The aforementioned wave will rapidly weaken and lift into the central 
rockies/plains on Sunday...allowing ridging to quickly rebuild over 
the forecast area. 500 mb heights at or above 582dm will become maximized on 
Monday afternoon yielding highs in the middle/upper 90s for lower 
elevation locations. The next progressive Pacific wave will move 
onshore Tuesday afternoon...though model output and trends keep the 
vast majority of jet energy and moisture from central California 
northward. If anything...the forward speed and arrival into the western 
Continental U.S. May be a bit slower...and have delayed the local onset of 
frontal passage and cooling to beyond Tuesday. The greatest impact of this 
system for Arizona may be gusty winds along and immediately behind 
the frontal boundary as the pressure gradient tightens Tuesday 
afternoon and evening. Southeast California and the lower Colorado 
River valley would likely experience the most prolonged and frequent 
higher gusts. 


While heights aloft will be tempered back into a 570-576dm range for 
the remainder of the week under quasi-zonal flow...feel the net 
effect on temperatures will only be limited to keeping daily 
readings near climatology. Ensemble spread is relatively low in the 
day 5-8 range...so forecast confidence is somewhat higher than 
average. At this time...precipitation chances appear almost 
non-existent for pretty much the entirety of next week. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona including kphx...kiwa...and ksdl... 
southeast California/southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh... 


Increasing clouds...moisture and instability across the area with 
the approach of a Pacific low pressure system off the Southern 
California coast. Winds become south-southwest and increase with 
gusts up to 20kts after 17z...along with broken cloud decks 
generally at or below 12kft and local ceilings down to 10kft at times. Drier 
nature of the atmosphere will lead to virga/isolated thunderstorms 
with strong gusty downdrafts possible later this afternoon...mainly 
after 23z near kphx/kiwa/ksdl. Outflow has potential to generate 
blowing dust across lower deserts and lower visibility down to 
4sm...but not placing any reductions in tafs this time. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity tapers off over western taf sites kblh/kipl 
overnight...but will linger across south-central Arizona into 
Saturday morning. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Sunday through Thursday... 
westerly flow will bring a warming and drying trend to the region 
through Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure establishes over the 
intermountain west. A cooling trend is expected Wednesday and 
Thursday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Basin and 
Pacific northwest. The biggest impact with this system will be an 
increase in wind area-wide on Wednesday...with gusts up to 35 miles per hour 
possible...especially across southeast California. Minimum humidity 
levels also bottom out in the single digits...presenting an 
increased fire danger threat. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...MO 
aviation...Meyers 
fire weather...Meyers 



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