Surprise, Arizona Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 77°
  • Mostly Cloudy
  • Wind: NNW 2 mph
  • Humidity: 65%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 64°
  • Pressure: 29.78 in. +

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Click a section below for more information.

Next 12 Hours

6  am
9  am
12  pm
3  pm
6  pm
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Clear
Clear
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
76°
83°
89°
93°
91°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Friday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 76 °
  • Chance of T-Storms
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 97 °
  • Low: 76 °
  • Clear
  • Sunday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 100 °
  • Low: 77 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 102 °
  • Low: 78 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Clear
  • High: 101 °
  • Low: 80 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Surprise, Arizona

Updated: 2:02 AM MST on January 04, 2015

  • Friday

    Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. High around 95F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Friday Night

    Partly to mostly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. Low 76F. Winds ESE at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Saturday

    Sunshine. High 97F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear skies. Low 76F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy. High around 100F. Winds light and variable.

  • Sunday Night

    Scattered clouds with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm developing overnight. Low 77F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

  • Monday

    Mostly sunny skies. High 102F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Mostly clear. Low 78F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Sunny skies. High 101F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    A few clouds from time to time. Low near 80F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday

    A few clouds from time to time. High 104F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear skies with a few passing clouds. Low 79F. Winds light and variable.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy skies. High 103F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    A few clouds from time to time. Low 79F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Mostly sunny. High around 105F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear skies. Low 79F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday

    Sunny. High 104F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear skies. Low 78F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday

    Sunny. High 103F. Winds light and variable.

  • Sunday Night

    Clear skies. Low 77F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Monday

    A mainly sunny sky. High 102F. Winds light and variable.

  • Monday Night

    Clear skies. Low 76F. Winds light and variable.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Local Storm Report 



08/31/2015 0750 PM

Papago Park, Maricopa County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


            Numerous large trees down at Phoenix Zoo... zoo closed
            for three days.





08/31/2015 0750 PM

Papago Park, Maricopa County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


            Numerous large trees down at Phoenix Zoo... zoo closed
            for three days.





08/31/2015 0750 PM

Papago Park, Maricopa County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


            Numerous large trees down at Phoenix Zoo... zoo closed
            for three days.




Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Kingswood Parke, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:19 AM MST

Temperature: 75.6 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: kingswood park, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 72.9 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City Grand, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:15 AM MST

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City Grand, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:15 AM MST

Temperature: 76.8 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.90 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:15 AM MST

Temperature: 79.2 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 81 °F Graphs

Location: Palm Ridge, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 74.3 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City Grand, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:19 AM MST

Temperature: 72.7 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 71% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:15 AM MST

Temperature: 77.4 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.65 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Copper Canyon Ranch, Waddell, AZ

Updated: 5:15 AM MST

Temperature: 77.9 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City Grand, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:15 AM MST

Temperature: 78.4 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 57% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 80 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 74.9 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.76 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Sycamore Estates, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 74.0 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 72% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 4:44 AM MST

Temperature: 77 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 68% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 79 °F Graphs

Location: Sun Dial I, El Mirage, AZ

Updated: 5:18 AM MST

Temperature: 73.4 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 69% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Arizona Traditions, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:19 AM MST

Temperature: 74.5 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 74% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: SUN CITY WEST, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 73.0 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.89 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:19 AM MST

Temperature: 73.3 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 73% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Arizona Traditions, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:13 AM MST

Temperature: 73.4 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Sarah Ann Ranch, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:12 AM MST

Temperature: 73.2 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 69% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.86 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 75 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City - Phase Two, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 75.7 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 77% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Crossriver, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 5:19 AM MST

Temperature: 74.9 °F Dew Point: 61 °F Humidity: 61% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: South West Weather, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 5:13 AM MST

Temperature: 74.9 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: 115th and Olive, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 74.2 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 65% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City - W Pineridge / Kings Mtn, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 74.6 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.61 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Wildlife World Zoo Area, Litchfield Park, AZ

Updated: 5:11 AM MST

Temperature: 74.7 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 70% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.79 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: WTF Pulte, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 76.5 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: WNW at 1.8 mph Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Saguaro Manor,Luke AFB, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 5:07 AM MST

Temperature: 74.3 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 69% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.68 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Apollo Village, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 5:20 AM MST

Temperature: 75.3 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 67% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Desert Oasis at Surprise, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:15 AM MST

Temperature: 76.1 °F Dew Point: 62 °F Humidity: 60% Wind: North at - Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: Saguaro View, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 5:13 AM MST

Temperature: 71.1 °F Dew Point: 63 °F Humidity: 76% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 73 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
305 am MST Friday Sep 4 2015 


Synopsis... 
sufficient moisture will remain over much of Arizona today providing 
good shower and thunderstorm chances...particularly across the 
eastern half of the state. Somewhat drier air will move into the 
region over the weekend...reducing rainfall chances very slightly. 
While some thunderstorm chances will persist during the first half 
of next week...a substantially warmer and drier airmass will spread 
into the area for the latter half of the week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
early morning WV imagery shows a seasonably deep cold core low over 
the Pacific northwest...with the longitudinal trough axis extending all the 
way south to 20n. This scenario is creating an unusually strong 
meridional jet throughout the southwestern Continental U.S. With embedded shortwaves 
streaming north from the outer fringes of Tropical Storm Kevin (west 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula). Meanwhile...infrared satellite 
loops showed numerous Gravity waves pulsing outwards from convection 
earlier Thursday...with resultant temporary subsidence in their wake 
over much of Arizona. Interestingly...00z/03z regional sounding data 
sampled a distinct layer of drier air (7-8 g/kg) in the 800 mb-700 mb levels 
hovering above more impressive shallow surface moisture. 
However...objective analysis and forecast soundings indicate mixing 
and advective processes modifying this boundary layer this morning 
closer to 12 g/kg. 


Very interesting and tricky forecast for the next 24-48 hours as 
numerous subtle features and processes will make or break the 
forecast. During the morning hours...an overwhelming amount of high 
resolution models initiate elevated convection through much of central 
Arizona in association with a speed maximum and jet divergence field. 
There is some evidence in model forecasts of Theta-E advection and 
weak isentropic ascent...albeit focused more north towards 
Flagstaff. Within the mesoanalysis fields...there is hints of a 
vorticity center and -10c 500 mb cold pocket propagating north with the 
jet segment...and indeed recent satellite images show a 
corresponding cirrus streak and altocumulus castellanus field blossoming through 
southwestern/central Arizona. Thus...feel model output does lend credence to 
showers this morning lifting from the Phoenix vicinity into northern 
Arizona. 


Amount and scope of afternoon thunderstorm development may hinge on 
any atmospheric contamination (or lack thereof) and potential 
limited insolation from morning showers and cloud cover. However 
given the stronger than normal winds aloft...any debris clouds and 
showers will likely be advected into northern Arizona quickly 
allowing for rapid airmass recovery and boundary layer warming. With 
the boundary layer conservatively holding 11 g/kg moisture 
levels...cooler temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft...and 
decent surface warming...MLCAPES around 1000 j/kg will be attainable. 
Deep layer bulk shear 25-30kt and adequate forward storm motion may 
be able to translate higher momentum air to the surface in more robust 
convection...however dcape values below 1000 j/kg may preclude a 
more substantial widespread severe threat. 


Convective potential for the weekend and early next week may be 
somewhat more muted than recent days as deep layer winds veer 
somewhat more westerly as troughing translates into the Great Basin 
and northern rockies. Still...boundary layer moisture will be difficult 
to completely scour out and some modest infusion of midlevel 
moisture peeling off the remnants of Kevin may be possible. 
However...there remains some disconnect with the more quality 
tropical moisture to the south...and the best WV transport may be 
deflected around the forecast area. In addition...with middle latitude 
troughing lifting to the north and heights aloft rising ahead of the 
remnant tropical system...models depict substantial midlevel warming 
and increased convective inhibition. Kept some modest near 
climatology probability of precipitation through Tuesday...however measurable rainfall at 
Lower Desert elevations may be difficult to come by. 


Some minor uncertainty still exists for the latter half of next week 
as subtle differences in the subtropical ridge position will dictate 
if and how quickly moisture is completely scoured south of the 
forecast area. Mesoscale processes and outflow from sonoran mesoscale convective system/S 
may allow for Gulf surges and boundary layer moisture 
advection...but definitively forecasting and timing such events 
would prove fruitless at this time. Regardless...500 mb height rises at or above 
590dm will result in temperatures peaking back above normal under 
gradually more compressional subsident flow. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona including kphx...kiwa...and ksdl... 
could see a lingering shower or two for the rest of the evening into 
the overnight hours while scattered to broken clouds bases remain around 10k 
feet. Another shot at some showers and thunderstorms will be possible 
Friday afternoon and evening. Wind directions will eventually shift 
toward downsloping easterlies by around midnight and generally stay 
southerly during much of the daytime hours Friday. 


Southeast California/southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh... 
aside from high clouds...expect minimal weather-related aviation 
impacts through Friday evening. Diurnal winds with occasional late- 
afternoon gustiness anticipated. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Saturday through Wednesday... 
elevated moisture will remain in place across Arizona this weekend 
through the middle of next week...whereas drier than normal air will 
reside west of the Colorado River. Humidities will fall into the 20-30 
percent range each afternoon across Arizona and into the 10-20 
percent range to the west. Overnight recoveries at all sites will be 
good/excellent. Winds will follow typical upslope/downvalley patterns 
outside of thunderstorm induced outflows. 


&& 


Spotter information statement... 
spotters are encouraged to report conditions according to Standard 
operating procedures. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arizona...none. 
California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...MO 
aviation...Kuhlman 
fire weather...leins 



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