Surprise, Arizona Weather Conditions

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Current Conditions

  • 75°
  • Haze
  • Wind: South 2 mph
  • Humidity: 44%
  • Visibility: 2.5 miles
  • Dew Point: 52°
  • Pressure: 29.79 in. +

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Next 12 Hours

11  pm
2  am
5  am
8  am
11  am
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
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73°
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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Saturday
  • Partly Cloudy
  • High: 79 °
  • Low: 61 °
  • Partly Cloudy
  • Sunday
  • Chance of Rain
  • High: 70 °
  • Low: 50 °
  • Chance of Rain
  • Monday
  • Clear
  • High: 73 °
  • Low: 50 °
  • Clear
  • Tuesday
  • Clear
  • High: 77 °
  • Low: 54 °
  • Clear
  • Wednesday
  • Clear
  • High: 84 °
  • Low: 55 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Surprise, Arizona

Updated: 8:00 PM MST on October 31, 2014

  • Saturday

    Partly cloudy. High of 79F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 20 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 61F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Sunday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 70F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 50F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NNE after midnight.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 77F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the NW in the afternoon.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 54F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 15 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 84F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 55F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 86F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 57F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 75F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Low of 59F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 57F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 55F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 82F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Air Quality Alert  Statement as of 11:51 am MST on October 31, 2014


... High pollution advisory for Maricopa County including the greater
Phoenix area Saturday...

The Arizona department of environmental quality in Phoenix has issued
an airborne coarse particle high pollution advisory for the greater
Phoenix area for Saturday.

An episode of strong and gusty winds is forecast to generate
widespread blowing dust that may result in local coarse particle
concentrations that pose a health risk. Adverse health effects
increase as air quality deteriorates.

Coarse particulate matter - also known as PM-10 - is an air
contaminant that can aggravate heart and lung disease conditions...
especially in older adults... children... and those with asthma. A
decrease in physical activity is recommended.

Consolidate your travel... stabilize loose soils... slow down or avoid
travel on dirt roads... reduce or eliminate fireplace use... and avoid
using gas-powered lawn equipment.

For details on this high pollution advisory for Maricopa County...
visit the adeq internet site at www.Azdeq.Gov or call 602-771-2367
for recorded forecast information.





1151 am MST Fri Oct 31 2014

... High pollution advisory for Maricopa County including the greater
Phoenix area Saturday...

The Arizona department of environmental quality in Phoenix has issued
an airborne coarse particle high pollution advisory for the greater
Phoenix area for Saturday.

An episode of strong and gusty winds is forecast to generate
widespread blowing dust that may result in local coarse particle
concentrations that pose a health risk. Adverse health effects
increase as air quality deteriorates.

Coarse particulate matter - also known as PM-10 - is an air
contaminant that can aggravate heart and lung disease conditions...
especially in older adults... children... and those with asthma. A
decrease in physical activity is recommended.

Consolidate your travel... stabilize loose soils... slow down or avoid
travel on dirt roads... reduce or eliminate fireplace use... and avoid
using gas-powered lawn equipment.

For details on this high pollution advisory for Maricopa County...
visit the adeq internet site at www.Azdeq.Gov or call 602-771-2367
for recorded forecast information.





Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Kingswood Parke, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:16 AM MST

Temperature: 70.2 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: SE at 1.2 mph Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 76 °F Graphs

Location: Mountain Vista Ranch, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:04 AM MST

Temperature: 69.8 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.84 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Legacy Parc, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:12 AM MST

Temperature: 72.5 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Rancho Gabriela, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:16 AM MST

Temperature: 73.2 °F Dew Point: 54 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: East at 1.0 mph Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Sycamore Estates, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:16 AM MST

Temperature: 72.6 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: SE at 4.0 mph Pressure: 29.72 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City West, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 12:16 AM MST

Temperature: 66.0 °F Dew Point: 38 °F Humidity: 36% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Sun Dial I, El Mirage, AZ

Updated: 12:15 AM MST

Temperature: 72.9 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 47% Wind: NNE at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Surprise Farms, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:16 AM MST

Temperature: 69.0 °F Dew Point: 50 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.73 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Arizona Traditions, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:14 AM MST

Temperature: 68.0 °F Dew Point: 49 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.83 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Sarah Ann Ranch, Surprise, AZ

Updated: 12:11 AM MST

Temperature: 69.4 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Sun City - Phase Two, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 74.1 °F Dew Point: 55 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: East at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.75 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Crossriver, Sun City West, AZ

Updated: 12:15 AM MST

Temperature: 69.5 °F Dew Point: 45 °F Humidity: 42% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.83 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: South West Weather, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 74.2 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 47% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.71 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Sun City, Sun City, AZ

Updated: 12:15 AM MST

Temperature: 73.0 °F Dew Point: 41 °F Humidity: 32% Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: 115th and Olive, Youngtown, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 74.7 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 43% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.62 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: WTF Pulte, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 72.4 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 47% Wind: ENE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 28.41 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Apollo Village, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 74.1 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 45% Wind: WSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.74 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: Fletcher Heights, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 68.5 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.91 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Peoria AZ, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 75.2 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 43% Wind: SSW at 1.2 mph Pressure: 29.78 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

Location: 83rd Ave & Pinnacle Peak Rd, Peoria, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 63.5 °F Dew Point: 32 °F Humidity: 16% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.38 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: 67th Ave & Union Hills Drive, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 11:59 PM MST

Temperature: 64.4 °F Dew Point: 51 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: PebbleCreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 71.8 °F Dew Point: 23 °F Humidity: 16% Wind: Calm Pressure: 28.79 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 74 °F Graphs

Location: Pebblecreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 71.1 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.66 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: PebbleCreek, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 71.4 °F Dew Point: 53 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: 107th and Campbell Ave, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 74.3 °F Dew Point: 52 °F Humidity: 45% Wind: WSW at 1.6 mph Pressure: 29.77 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 77 °F Graphs

Location: APRSWXNET Phoenix AZ US, Glendale, AZ

Updated: 11:38 PM MST

Temperature: 69 °F Dew Point: 48 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.80 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: - Graphs

Location: Tuscany Falls, Goodyear, AZ

Updated: 12:17 AM MST

Temperature: 75.6 °F Dew Point: 56 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.70 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 78 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
825 PM MST Friday Oct 31 2014 


Synopsis... 
significantly cooler temperatures will arrive the weekend as a low 
pressure system and cold front push through the Desert Southwest. 
Highs will drop into the upper 70s and low 80s on Saturday...falling 
further to the upper 60s and lower 70s on Sunday. In addition to the 
cooler temperatures...occasionally breezy conditions can be expected 
throughout the weekend. Rain chances will be slight...confined 
mostly to higher terrain north and east of Phoenix...and amounts 
very light. A gradual warming trend will begin during the middle of 
next week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
a very weak shortwave can be seen in evening WV imagery across southern 
Arizona ejecting ahead of the larger full latitudinal trough 
crashing into the western Continental U.S.. 00z ktwc sounding data depicted a 
subtle backing of winds around the 700 mb layer in conjunction with 
midlevel cooling supporting the presence of this shortwave and 
focused ascent...which has led to extensive altocumulus castellanus and an isolated 
thunderstorm (which has since dissipated). Recent hrrr iterations as well as 
other arw and nmm high resolution cores captured this feature and 
attendant convection...which may continue to percolate through the 
evening...however largely remain just east of the forecast area. 


Other than accounting for some short term trends in this evenings 
update...overnight low temperatures were selectively bumped up a few 
degrees (particularly though southeastern california) as the combination of 
increasingly thick high clouds and lack of decoupled winds due to 
the increased pressure gradient should hold readings up more than 
anticipated. Also...investigation of numerous high resolution models 
and early 00z model output strongly suggests notable low/middle level 
frontogenetical forcing through parts of central/western Arizona Saturday 
morning. While most actual precipitation reaching the ground will 
likely be tied with orographic enhancement north of the County Warning Area...a few 
isolated sprinkles/showers look more possible during the middle morning 
hours. Have modestly increased some probability of precipitation (as well as cloud cover) in 
the 12-18z time frame though impacts should be minimal to none. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
/315 PM MST Friday Oct 31 2014/ 
forecast area is situated between an upper level ridge to the east 
and a trough off the West Coast. Veering profile is also evident 
with east winds in the lower levels and a stronger southerly flow at 
700 mb. Downslope component to the flow has persisted this 
afternoon...resulting in well above average temperatures due to warm 
advection and the effects of compression. Current high temperature 
of 95 degrees in Phoenix is only one degree shy of the daily record 
last set in 1988. 


Hrrr continues to suggest that isolated convection will develop this 
afternoon...though consensus among the hi-res and global guidance is 
that this will be well to our south and east...where instability and 
deep layer shear will be maximized. Across the lower 
deserts...mainly clear skies will persist followed by increasing 
high clouds this evening. 


Model guidance...including GFS ensemble members...remain consistent 
in calling for the deep and cold trough to push across Arizona this 
weekend...bringing much cooler temperatures...a slight chance for showers 
across south central Arizona...and breezy/locally windy weather on 
Saturday. The trough will move through as a series of waves...with the 
first wave quickly racing northeastward and across the state 
Saturday. The first cold front Saturday will lead to about 10 
degrees of cooling to go along with breezy or locally windy 
southwest winds. Moisture and dynamics will be somewhat limited so 
precipitation will be confined to areas mainly north and east of 
Phoenix...across the higher terrain...and probability of precipitation will stay mostly 
below 15 percent. The second...and stronger...wave moves across the 
state Sunday into Sunday night...and the GFS actually develops a 
closed upper low that treks across northern Arizona during the day. Stronger 
dynamics are being advertised...as the 300 mb jet dives further to the 
south putting south central Arizona under the favored front left quadrant of 
the jet. Also...an impressive bullseye of middle level q convergence is 
forecast to push across much of central and northern Arizona. With temperatures 
being much cooler relative humidity values will be higher...and it will be easier 
to wring smaller amounts of quantitative precipitation forecast out of the atmosphere. As such we 
raised probability of precipitation into the 15-20 percent ballpark over south central Arizona on 
Sunday...including the Lower Desert areas. High temperatures are expected 
to drop another 10 degrees or so with highs in the greater Phoenix 
area to fall to near 70 degrees. Those numbers would represent highs 
more than 10 degrees below seasonal normals. 


By Monday morning the trough axis will have shifted southeast of the 
greater Phoenix area...putting most of the County Warning Area under a subsident 
northwest flow aloft. Moisture will continue to thin...with skies to 
become mostly sunny by early afternoon over all but the high terrain 
of southern Gila County. Little change in high temperatures is expected...as 
cooler air continues to filter over the lower deserts. The forecast 
high for Phoenix Monday will be just 72 degrees. 


Dry north to northeast flow aloft continues across the area in the 
wake of the departed upper trough on Tuesday...for generally sunny 
skies. High temperatures will rise a few degrees as heights/thicknesses 
start to climb...but overall temperatures will stay below seasonal normals 
with Phoenix sitting in the middle to upper 70s. 


Quite a bit of model uncertainly developing for the latter portion 
of the extended period. GFS keeps high pressure aloft in place 
across the Desert Southwest...and develops a closed low well off to 
the southeast...over portions of Texas and northern Mexico. On the other 
hand...the European model (ecmwf) develops that same upper low much further to the 
west...and actually moves the low center into southeastern Arizona by Wednesday 
afternoon. The low starts to advect quite a bit of moisture into 
southeastern Arizona...some of that moisture tropical in nature. Very low 
confidence in the European model (ecmwf) solution as model run to run consistency has 
been very low. For now...will keep a dry forecast in place across Arizona 
for Wednesday and Thursday...but will keep some single digit probability of precipitation in 
place from Phoenix eastward...and add in some cloud cover as 
well...in a nod to the model uncertainty. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona including kphx...kiwa and ksdl... 
aviation impacts will be tied to both the possibility of lower ceilings 
and shifting and gusty winds Saturday. Increasing moisture will lead 
to eventual development of lower ceilings Saturday after sunrise...with 
both bufr soundings and statistical guidance support ceilings in the 
4k-6k level. While confidence is moderate regarding the presence of 
lower clouds...the persistence of clouds and timing of development 
and subsequent scattering later in the day carry much lower 
confidence. Scattered virga will be likely... and a few 
sprinkles/showers may also be briefly possible. While some higher 
wind gusts may be possible with the wind shift to the southwest late 
Saturday morning...speeds should remain below 25kt. 


Southeast California and southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh... 
gusty winds and timing of wind shifts will be the primary aviation 
impacts through Saturday afternoon. A cold front will pass through 
terminal sites Saturday morning with the possibility of variably 
shifting winds around frontal passage. During the afternoon hours...stronger 
west and southwest wind gusts approaching 30kt may be possible 
before decoupling around sunset. Forecast confidence is moderate. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Monday through Friday... 
a cooler airmass will settle over the region Monday through 
Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly below normal... 
but warming in the week. Breezy north to northeast winds are 
expected both day and night Monday through Wednesday...generally in 
the 10 to 15 miles per hour range with gusts to 20 miles per hour possible. Lighter wind 
will develop late in the week. Minimum relative humidities will 
generally range from 15 to 20 percent. Overnight recovery will be 
poor Monday through Wednesday with the breezes. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...MO 
previous discussion...Hirsch/cb 
aviation...MO 
fire weather...vasquez 



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