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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 68 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 66 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
810 PM MST Tuesday Jun 18 2013 


Synopsis...expect hot and dry weather conditions to continue 
through the weekend with breezy winds each day. There will be a 
slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two in the White 
Mountains on Friday and Saturday. 


&& 


Discussion...winds decreasing but light breezes continuing this 
evening as pressure gradients increase with a low pressure trough 
approaching from the northwest. Expect nocturnal wind decoupling to 
be less pronounced tonight compared with the past few nights due to 
increased gradients...which will lead to areas of light southwest 
breezes overnight...and milder overnight temperatures in general. 
Current forecast package is on track with these short term trends 
and no updates are planned this evening. 


&& 


Previous discussion/315 PM MST/...the smoke plume from the doce 
wildfire near Prescott Arizona is clearly shown moving northward in 
the afternoon visible satellite imagery. Expect this plume to spread 
smoke across northern Arizona over the next few days. 


A low pressure system over the Pacific northwest and a high pressure 
ridge over the central states will produce breezy to windy 
southwesterly winds each day through Friday. Stronger wind speeds on 
Wednesday and Thursday will produce critical fire weather conditions 
for most areas in northern Arizona. A red flag warning remains in 
effect for Wednesday and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for 
Thursday...see product rfwfgz for details. A slight chance for high 
based thunderstorms are forecast on Friday and Saturday along the 
New Mexico border. 


Over the weekend...the Pacific northwest low will slowly move 
eastward through the Montana weakening the pressure gradients and 
producing a slight decrease in wind speeds over Arizona. 


For next week...long range forecast models are in good agreement 
that a large high pressure center will build in across New Mexico 
and Colorado. Southeasterly flow will develop increasing moisture 
levels in southern Arizona from Monday Onward. For northern Arizona 
this may bring high based cloud cover and slight chances for a 
thunderstorm or two over the Yavapai County mountains eastward along 
the Mogollon Rim to the White Mountains. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 06z package...expect VFR conditions for the next 
24 hours...except in the vicinity of a wildfire west of kprc where 
local visibility reductions are possible. The kprc terminal may be 
affected overnight. Winds S-SW up to around 10kt 
overnight...increasing to 15-25kt with gusts near 30kt after 
15z...decreasing again after 03z Thursday. Aviation discussion not 
updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...very dry southwest flow aloft will persist for the 
next several days. Wednesday and Thursday...critical fire weather 
conditions are expected across most of the area with southwest wind 
gusts 30 to 40 miles per hour...warm temperatures and single digit minimum 
humidity. A red flag warning is in effect Wednesday and a Fire 
Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday. Haines indices of 5 and 6 
are also expected. 


Friday through Sunday...expect breezy southwest winds each 
afternoon. Wind gusts approach critical values in the Little 
Colorado River valley Friday afternoon. On Friday and 
Saturday...slight chances for high based thunderstorms are forecast 
for areas along the New Mexico border. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories... 
red flag warning on Wednesday from noon to 7 PM MST for 
azz104>108-111>117-139-140. 


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
evening for azz104>107-111>117-139-140. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.........Bohlin 
aviation.......jj 
fire weather...jj 


For northern Arizona weather information visit 
weather.Gov/Flagstaff