Scottsdale, Arizona Weather Conditions

Severe Weather Alerts

Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Current Conditions

  • 82°
  • Clear
  • Wind: ESE 6 mph
  • Humidity: 54%
  • Visibility: 10.0 miles
  • Dew Point: 64°
  • Pressure: 29.89 in. +
  • Heat Index: 83

Select a Section

Click a section below for more information.

Next 12 Hours

11  am
2  pm
5  pm
8  pm
11  pm
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
Chance of a Thunderstorm
Chance of T-storms
88°
93°
93°
88°
84°
Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

  • Wednesday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 95 °
  • Low: 77 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Thursday
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • High: 93 °
  • Low: 79 °
  • Chance of a Thunderstorm
  • Friday
  • Clear
  • High: 93 °
  • Low: 81 °
  • Clear
  • Saturday
  • Clear
  • High: 97 °
  • Low: 81 °
  • Clear
  • Sunday
  • Clear
  • High: 99 °
  • Low: 81 °
  • Clear

Forecast for Scottsdale, Arizona

Updated: 8:00 AM MST on August 19, 2014

  • Wednesday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 95F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Wednesday Night

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the evening, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 77F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Thursday

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain in the morning, then clear with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 93F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 79F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 93F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 81F with a heat index of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Saturday

    Clear. High of 97F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph shifting to the West in the afternoon.

  • Saturday Night

    Clear. Low of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Sunday

    Clear. High of 99F. Winds from the South at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Sunday Night

    Partly cloudy. Low of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday

    Clear. High of 100F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Monday Night

    Clear. Low of 82F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Tuesday

    Clear. High of 99F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph.

  • Tuesday Night

    Clear. Low of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday

    Clear. High of 95F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Wednesday Night

    Clear. Low of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday

    Clear. High of 95F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Thursday Night

    Clear. Low of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday

    Clear. High of 95F. Winds less than 5 mph.

  • Friday Night

    Clear. Low of 81F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Severe Weather Alert Descriptions

 Local Storm Report 



08/19/2014 0607 am

2 miles SW of Glendale spor, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            0.25 of rain estimated in 15 minutes. Street flooding.




08/19/2014 0621 am

2 miles NNE of Cashion, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.32 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 0.32 inch in 20 minutes




08/19/2014 0705 am

6 miles ENE of Peoria, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 0712 am

5 miles SW of Beardsley, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.38 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            1.38 inches of rain in 35 minutes. Significant ponding
            on roadways.




08/19/2014 0714 am

New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 0717 am

3 miles N of Metro center, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by broadcast media.


            Underpass flooded at Greenway and I-17




08/19/2014 0722 am

5 miles NNW of Desert Ridge center, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.93 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 0.93 inch on 30 minutes. Street flooding
            in area.




08/19/2014 0726 am

3 miles NNW of north mountaert ridge center, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Spotter reported via text message 3 feet of water in
            Cave Creek wash near intersection of 7th Ave and Coral
            Gables Dr.




08/19/2014 0729 am

5 miles ESE of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 0730 am

3 miles WSW of Desert Ridge river, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.32 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Measured rainfall between 0630 and 0730 MST.




08/19/2014 0731 am

5 miles WSW of desert ridgeert ridge river, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Low water crossings flooded.




08/19/2014 0731 am

2 miles SSE of Cave Creek, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 0632 am

3 miles WSW of desert ridgehion, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.30 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            0.30 inch of rain in 20 minutes. Currently raining at
            over 1 inch per hour.




08/19/2014 0734 am

3 miles NNE of north mountae creek, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            At least 0.75 inch of rain in 30 minutes.




08/19/2014 0739 am

5 miles W of Cave Creek, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 0752 am

3 miles NW of south mountaicreek, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by broadcast media.


            Braodcast media reports street flooding at intersection
            of 27th Ave and Dobbins.




08/19/2014 0813 am

4 miles NNW of desert ridgeh mountaicreek, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 1000 am

8 miles N of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Rockslide on I-17




08/19/2014 1000 am

4 miles N of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Interstate 17 totally inundated entire width. Cars
            stranded. Rescues underway.




08/19/2014 1119 am

2 miles SSE of Wittmann, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Phoenix Fire Department dispatched to assist with
            ongoing water Rescue.




08/19/2014 1131 am

4 miles N of Beardsley, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 1150 am

2 miles NNW of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 1213 PM

2 miles NW of anthem, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 0639 am

3 miles WNW of south mountaert ridgehion, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department




08/19/2014 1218 PM

4 miles S of Desert Ridge mem, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            51 and Bell Road reports 1 inch rainfall in 14 minutes.




08/19/2014 0130 PM

5 miles N of Desert Ridge Mt ridge mem, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.99 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Measured from 600am to 130pm




08/19/2014 0638 PM

5 miles W of Luke AFB, Maricopa County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m48 mph, reported by trained spotter.


            Vsby. 1 mi. Towards the west due to a wall of rain
            approaching from the west.





08/19/2014 0647 am

2 miles NNE of Sun City westh mountaert ridgehio, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain e1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Very heavy rain. Over 1 inch in an hour estimated.




08/19/2014 0649 am

2 miles E of Peoria, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.09 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 1.09 inch in 40 minutes... now tapering
            off.




08/19/2014 0653 am

3 miles WSW of desert ridgea, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            1.00 inch of rain since 630 am




08/19/2014 0658 am

1 miles ENE of Laveen, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            One eighth to one quarter inch of water on I-17 at
            durago curve




08/19/2014 0703 am

3 miles ESE of Peoria, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 1.75 inch in 45 minutes.




08/19/2014 0704 am

1 miles ENE of north mountaria, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Curb-to-curb flooding on I-17 and Daisy.




08/19/2014 0638 PM

5 miles W of Luke AFB, Maricopa County.

Thunderstorm wind gust m48 mph, reported by trained spotter.


            Vsby. 1 mi. Towards the west due to a wall of rain
            approaching from the west.





08/19/2014 1150 am

2 miles NNW of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0130 PM

5 miles N of Desert Ridge M, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.99 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Measured from 600am to 130pm





08/19/2014 1213 PM

2 miles NW of anthem, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 1218 PM

4 miles S of Desert Ridge M, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            51 and Bell Road reports 1 inch rainfall in 14 minutes.





08/19/2014 1119 am

2 miles SSE of Wittmann, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Phoenix Fire Department dispatched to assist with
            ongoing water Rescue.





08/19/2014 1131 am

4 miles N of Beardsley, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0813 am

4 miles NNW of Desert Ridge, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0705 am

6 miles ENE of Peoria, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 1000 am

4 miles N of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Interstate 17 totally inundated entire width. Cars
            stranded. Rescues underway.





08/19/2014 1000 am

8 miles N of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Rockslide on I-17





08/19/2014 0739 am

5 miles W of Cave Creek, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0729 am

5 miles ESE of New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0714 am

New River, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0731 am

2 miles SSE of Cave Creek, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0731 am

2 miles SSE of Cave Creek, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0639 am

3 miles WNW of south mounta, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


            Water Rescue conducted by Phoenix Fire Department





08/19/2014 0730 am

3 miles WSW of Desert Ridge, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.32 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Measured rainfall between 0630 and 0730 MST.





08/19/2014 0752 am

3 miles NW of south mountai, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by broadcast media.


            Braodcast media reports street flooding at intersection
            of 27th Ave and Dobbins.





08/19/2014 0752 am

3 miles NW of south mountai, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by broadcast media.


            Braodcast media reports street flooding at intersection
            of 27th Ave and Dobbins.





08/19/2014 0734 am

3 miles NNE of north mounta, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            At least 0.75 inch of rain in 30 minutes.





08/19/2014 0731 am

5 miles WSW of Desert Ridge, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Low water crossings flooded.





08/19/2014 0726 am

3 miles NNW of north mounta, Maricopa County.

Flash flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Spotter reported via text message 3 feet of water in
            Cave Creek wash near intersection of 7th Ave and Coral
            Gables Dr.





08/19/2014 0722 am

5 miles NNW of Desert Ridge, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.93 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 0.93 inch on 30 minutes. Street flooding
            in area.





08/19/2014 0717 am

3 miles N of Metro center, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by broadcast media.


            Underpass flooded at Greenway and I-17





08/19/2014 0712 am

5 miles SW of Beardsley, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.38 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            1.38 inches of rain in 35 minutes. Significant ponding
            on roadways.





08/19/2014 0704 am

1 miles ENE of north mounta, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            Curb-to-curb flooding on I-17 and Daisy.





08/19/2014 0703 am

3 miles ESE of Peoria, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 1.75 inch in 45 minutes.





08/19/2014 0658 am

1 miles ENE of Laveen, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            1 8 - 1 4 inch of water on I-17 at durago curve





08/19/2014 0658 am

1 miles ENE of Laveen, Maricopa County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


            1 8 - 1 4 inch of water on I-17 at durago curve





08/19/2014 0653 am

3 miles WSW of Desert Ridge, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            1.00 inch of rain since 6... 30 am





08/19/2014 0649 am

2 miles E of Peoria, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m1.09 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 1.09 inch in 40 minutes... now tapering
            off.





08/19/2014 0647 am

2 miles NNE of Sun City Wes, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain e1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Very heavy rain. Over 1 inch in an hour estimated.





08/19/2014 0632 am

3 miles WSW of Desert Ridge, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.30 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            0.30 inch of rain in 20 minutes. Currently raining at
            over 1 inch per hour.





08/19/2014 0621 am

2 miles NNE of Cashion, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain m0.32 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            Heavy rain... 0.32 inch in 20 minutes





08/19/2014 0607 am

2 miles SW of Glendale spor, Maricopa County.

Heavy rain e0.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


            0.25 of rain estimated in 15 minutes. Street flooding.




Personal Weather Stations

Personal Weather Stations [Add your weather station!]

Location: Central Scottsdale, AZ, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 10:31 AM MDT

Temperature: 84.1 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.81 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Scottsdale - Old Town, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:30 AM MST

Temperature: 86.2 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: SSW at 1.7 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 90 °F Graphs

Location: Spur Circle, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 86.2 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 52% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: - Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: AZCC, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 82.1 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 62% Wind: ESE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 29.85 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: 74th Street and McDowell Road, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 85.6 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.14 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest Pera AZ US, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 8:40 AM MST

Temperature: 83 °F Dew Point: 65 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: NE at 5 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Dateland Palms, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 87.3 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 49% Wind: SSE at 1.1 mph Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 90 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest Arcadia AZ US, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 8:40 AM MST

Temperature: 82 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 55% Wind: SSE at 5 mph Pressure: 29.94 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

Location: DDMET Tempe, AZ, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 9:00 AM MST

Temperature: 89 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: Calm Pressure: - Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 92 °F Graphs

Location: Paper Street, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 82.4 °F Dew Point: 69 °F Humidity: 64% Wind: Calm Pressure: 30.03 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: MesoWest SRP AZ US, Tempe, AZ

Updated: 8:40 AM MST

Temperature: 84 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 53% Wind: ENE at 5 mph Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 86 °F Graphs

Location: Shea Estates North, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 84.2 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 58% Wind: SSE at 2.7 mph Pressure: 28.86 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 87 °F Graphs

Location: Down Stream Dam, Tempe, AZ

Updated: 9:30 AM PDT

Temperature: 83.8 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: NNE at 3.0 mph Pressure: 30.01 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: D'Amore Engineering, Tempe, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 89.0 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 47% Wind: East at 1.0 mph Pressure: 28.02 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 92 °F Graphs

Location: Beeline, Mesa, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 86.5 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: East at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.87 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: Vista Del Rincon, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 87.7 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 91 °F Graphs

Location: Main and Dobson, Mesa, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 89.5 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 48% Wind: SSW at 2.0 mph Pressure: 29.95 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 93 °F Graphs

Location: Northeast Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 85.3 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: SSW at 2.9 mph Pressure: 29.98 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 89 °F Graphs

Location: Kierland, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 84.9 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.82 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 88 °F Graphs

Location: W 1st St.@ Date St., Mesa, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 82.9 °F Dew Point: 66 °F Humidity: 56% Wind: ESE at 6.9 mph Pressure: 29.92 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 85 °F Graphs

Location: Mesa, AZ, Mesa, AZ

Updated: 9:30 AM MST

Temperature: 87.7 °F Dew Point: 67 °F Humidity: 50% Wind: Calm Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 91 °F Graphs

Location: Cheery Lynn Historical District, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 90.5 °F Dew Point: 70 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: ESE at 5.6 mph Pressure: 29.93 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 96 °F Graphs

Location: McDowell Mtn Ranch, Scottsdale, AZ

Updated: 9:27 AM MST

Temperature: 88.2 °F Dew Point: 68 °F Humidity: 51% Wind: South at 3.1 mph Pressure: 29.97 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 92 °F Graphs

Location: Shea Heights 85028, Phoenix, AZ

Updated: 9:31 AM MST

Temperature: 82.6 °F Dew Point: 64 °F Humidity: 54% Wind: NE at 4.6 mph Pressure: 29.88 in Hourly Precipitation: 0.00 in Heat Index: 84 °F Graphs

MSN Maps of:

Temp: Dew Point: Humidity Wind Pressure Hr Precip -

NWS Forecaster Discussion




Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
920 am MST Wednesday Aug 20 2014 


Synopsis... 
there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today. 
Chances of storm activity increase on Thursday as an upper low 
pressure system along the California coast moves towards the Desert 
Southwest. Drier air spreading in from the west will reduce 
thunderstorm activity from this weekend into early next week. Below 
normal temperatures are forecast from today through Friday...warming 
this weekend. 


&& 


Discussion... 
upper low continues to drift southeastward down the Southern California 
coast with a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the vorticity 
maximum. Isolated showers have made their way into jtnp...though the 
strongest activity generally remains further west across western 
Riverside County. Further east across Arizona...conditions are 
considerably drier than they were 24 hours ago. Latest GPS-ipw at 
Tempe was measured at 1.3 inches. 


Upper level convergence associated with the front right quadrant of 
an approaching jet streak will inhibit convection somewhat this 
afternoon. Global and convective-allowing models are in good 
agreement that showers and thunderstorms will generally be isolated 
in coverage. This is depicted well in the current forecast and only 
minor short-term adjustments are needed this morning. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
today through Friday... 
an upper low centered near Catalina Island has produced a band of 
showers and isolated thunderstorms over southwest California early 
this morning ahead of an approaching vorticity lobe rotating around the 
bottom of the trough and with it a strengthening jet streak. There 
may also be a remnant frontal boundary involved as well...rap 
analysis depicts a thermal gradient extending southwestward from the 
l.A.To San Diego coast. Introduced slight chance probability of precipitation for this 
morning to our southeast California zones in acknowledgment of this 
features as they brush our western areas. Overall though...models 
are not enthusiastic about storm activity today as the coastal low 
sags southward and the aforementioned vorticity lobe mostly misses 
US...plus the precipitable water values are significantly lower than 
yesterday. Still enough potential to keep slight chances going for 
today. With less moisture available and southwesterly steering 
flow...anticipate that the storms will not be nearly as capable of 
producing flooding but brief heavy rain potential is there plus 
better strong wind potential. 


Thursday is looking more active as the models agree on the low 
shifting far enough eastward to bring a vorticity lobe through our area. 
They also indicate a separate perturbation moving in from the 
southwest at the same time. This has been the case for at least a 
few runs. Jet dynamics come into play as well. Thus...the best 
dynamical forcing of the week looks to be Thursday. As a 
result...raised probability of precipitation. Would have gone higher if prognosticated moisture 
availability was more impressive. Vertical wind shear will be better 
on Thursday as well and that will aid the longevity and potency of 
any storms that manage to form. Models generally keeping the cape 
below 1000 j/kg...below 500 per sref. On Friday the low tracks 
across Arizona and weakens in the process with drier air moving in 
behind it. Thus probability of precipitation trend downward Friday. Temperatures will be 
near or somewhat below normal through Friday. 


Saturday through Tuesday... 
models show an increase in moisture behind the departing low with 
possibly some tangential influence from what is now T.S. Lowell. GFS 
shows more broad troughing over the western states than does the 
ecwmf which has the ridge axis further a bit further north through 
Monday. As a result...ecwmf has more moisture around. On Tuesday and 
Wednesday...both models bring a northeast Pacific Ridge 
inland...European model (ecmwf) is more amplified. Meanwhile...both models continue 
to depict yet another tropical storm off southern Baja California and deeper 
moisture over our forecast area. It remains to be seen just how the 
moisture plays out. Held on to low grade monsoon scenario...slight 
chance probability of precipitation limited to south-central Arizona...with subtle westward 
expansion of probability of precipitation for Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona including kphx...kiwa...and ksdl... 
compared to Tuesday...it should be much less active across the 
region today with only some isolated storms to contend with mainly 
east of the terminals. Confidence too low to introduce into the 
tafs...but some of the storms could put out outflows which would 
result in an earlier than usual easterly wind shift. Otherwise winds 
will follow typical diurnal patterns. 


Southwest Arizona and southeast California including kipl and kblh... 
isolated storms beginning to creep over the coastal mountains this 
morning but the heaviest precipitation should remain west of the terminals. 
Blh stands the best shot at seeing a shower/storm and I introduced a 
few hours of vcsh through late morning. Looks to be too dry at ipl 
for any storms today. Storms should dissipate and re-position 
themselves over eastern Arizona by this afternoon and both terminals 
should see improving conditions this afternoon/evening. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Friday through Tuesday... 
storm chances begin trending downward Friday through early next week 
as westerly flow aloft takes hold across the area. Slightly drier 
air will move into the region from the west which should result in 
storms in the more climatologically favored areas east of Phoenix. 
Looks to be a low-grade monsoon through early next week. Humidities 
will remain somewhat elevated with fair to good overnight recoveries 
expected. Winds will favor typical diurnal directions. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...Hirsch 
previous discussion...aj 
aviation...leins 
fire weather...leins 










National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations

Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Powered by the Weather Underground, Inc.