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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 54 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 48 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
330 am MST Sat may 25 2013 


Synopsis...a broad low pressure system will remain over the Pacific 
northwest through Memorial Day. This will produce periods of gusty 
southwest winds and dry conditions across northern Arizona. A low 
pressure system is forecast to affect the southwest by Tuesday and 
Wednesday of next week...with cooler temperatures and a chance of 
showers or thunderstorms. 
&& 




Discussion...a persistent closed low pressure system residing over 
the northwest U.S. Will continue to bring dry conditions and breezy 
southwest winds to northern Arizona through Memorial Day. High 
temperatures will be within a degree or two of normal. 


Tuesday into Wednesday...the northwest U.S. Low digs a trough of low 
pressure southward into the southwest states. This weather 
disturbance will bring an increase in the southwest flow...below 
normal high temperatures...and an increase in moisture and 
instability which will lead to isolated to widely scattered showers 
and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. The European model (ecmwf) has been 
consistently deeper with moving a low pressure trough through 
Arizona...with colder temperatures windy conditions and greater 
chances for precipitation. The GFS has been trending closer to the 
European model (ecmwf) solutions. For now the forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday 
cover a blend between both the GFS and the European model (ecmwf). 


Thursday and Friday...the closed low is forecast to move east over 
portions of the Great Basin and Wyoming. This pattern will continue 
to bring a southwest to westerly flow with breezy to windy 
conditions if the afternoon. Relative humidity values will be falling into the 
single digits to lower teens by Friday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are very 
different by next Friday...the GFS has a building ridge where the 
European model (ecmwf) has the strong closed low over the upper High Plains states. 
The GFS solution would bring lighter winds and warmer 
temperatures...meanwhile the European model (ecmwf) would bring much cooler 
conditions on northwest flow. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 12z package...expect VFR conditions...breezy 
winds and occasional high clouds through the 24 hour period. 
Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...a broad low pressure system will remain anchored 
over the Pacific northwest...bringing more breezy and dry conditions 
to the region through Sunday. Wind speeds are expected to approach 
but not exceed critical fire weather thresholds for our fire zones. 
However...a few of the windier locations may briefly exceed these 
critical thresholds. 


Monday through Wednesday...on Monday...the low pressure trough will 
remain in place along the West Coast keeping Arizona in a dry and 
breezy weather pattern. By Tuesday...a cold front pushes east 
bringing stronger winds and cooler temperatures to Arizona with a 
good chance for warning conditions for fire zones below 5000 feet 
elevation north of the Mogollon Rim. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.........Tc 
aviation.......bohlin 
fire weather...bohlin 


For northern Arizona weather information visit 
weather.Gov/Flagstaff