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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 102 °
• Low: 75 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 68 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
834 PM MST Tuesday may 21 2013 


Synopsis... 
a low pressure system will become centered near the Pacific 
northwest. This will lead to dry southwesterly flow aloft and breezy 
to windy conditions at times the rest of the week and into early 
next week. Temperatures will be seasonably warm. 


&& 


Discussion... 
dynamic pattern stretched across the northern American continent 
with an Omega block across the northern tier of the U.S. And into 
the Canadian provinces this evening. Further to the south...the 
upper level features are somewhat less defined with ridging 
stretching down into the southwest. Large area of low pressure 
continues to sink into the Pacific northwest...quickly ushering the 
southern portion of the larger ridge axis to our east. Healthy plume 
of Pacific moisture also drifted south into the area in coordination 
with the low leading to scattered to broken cirrus across the area 
of much of the day. For tonight...skies will gradually clear from 
the northwest as drier air associated with the Pacific northwest low and upper 
level jet moves into the area. Most sites across the region avoided 
triple digit readings today...locales such as Gila Bend and Yuma 
were a few of the exceptions. With the Pacific northwest low keeping greater 
thickness and ridge heights lowered...near normal temperatures /mostly 
upper 90s across the southwest deserts/ will persist for the week. 
No updates planned for the forecast grids this evening. 


&& 


Previous discussion /issued at 225 PM MST/PDT/... 
as the southern end of the trough begins to make its presence 
felt...afternoon temperatures Wednesday will be a little bit cooler over 
southeast California while some residual warming occurs over 
south-central Arizona. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft will 
also translate to stronger surface winds. The upper low/trough will 
have various vorticity lobes rotating through the system over the next 
few days which will lead to day to day fluctuations in winds and 
temperatures. The position of the low will keep a strong ridge from 
developing which in turn will keep things from getting excessively 
warm. Overall...look for breezy to windy conditions at times with 
very dry air. 


Saturday through Tuesday...over the weekend...there continues to be 
some difference of opinion between the GFS and ecwmf. The latter 
depicts some northward retreat of the trough while the former shows 
some digging. The gefs mean suggests that the GFS is a bit over 
done. Taking a blended approach...weighting toward the European model (ecmwf) based 
guidance...temperatures over the weekend and early next week dont change 
much with perhaps a very subtle cooling trend. Conditions will 
remain dry. 




&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona...including kphx...kiwa...ksdl... 
southeast California/southwest Arizona...including kipl and kblh... 


High pressure aloft will support light diurnally driven winds...with 
enhanced overnight breeziness expected for kipl and kblh. Stream of 
high Pacific moisture and associated cirrus will continue to clear 
to the southeast...with mostly clear skies expected near sunrise. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Friday through Tuesday... 
a large and nearly stationary Pacific low pressure system will 
remain in place along the West Coast through the period...keeping 
Arizona and southeast California under a dry southwest flow aloft. 
Breezy conditions will develop during the afternoon and evening 
hours each day over the area with peak wind gusts in excess of 25 
miles per hour possible. Single digit minimum humidities will continue. 
Overnight recovery will be poor over south-central Arizona and poor 
to fair over southwest Arizona and southeast California. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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Discussion...Nolte 
previous discussion...aj 
aviation...Nolte 
fire weather...cumulonimbus