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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 104 °
• Low: 77 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 102 °
• Low: 77 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 102 °
• Low: 77 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 102 °
• Low: 77 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 102 °
• Low: 79 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
750 am MST Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
above normal temperatures are expected across the region through the 
middle of next week. Limited moisture across the area will result in 
dry weather and mostly clear skies across all of southeast 
California...southwest and south central Arizona. 


&& 


Discussion... 
a rather large and energetic low pressure system will continue to 
move slowly into the Pacific northwest through Friday. Far removed 
at our latitude...dry west-southwesterly flow will dominate with a 
few degrees of cooling throughout the week. 


Analysis of regional morning balloon soundings showed a sharp but 
dry cold front stretching from northeast Nevada...trailing southwest 
to near Vandenberg AFB along the Southern California coast. Observed 700 mb 
west and southwesterly winds on the San Diego and Flagstaff 
soundings...ahead of the front...were at least 10 knots stronger 
than the models had forecast for 12z Wednesday. A breezy afternoon is 
forecast to develop across parts of southwest and south central Arizona 
with gusts in the 20 to 25 miles per hour range...stronger winds in northern 
Arizona. 


Otherwise our current dry forecasts for the remainder of the week 
look OK. No updates planned. Previous discussion below still 
applies. 


Previous discussion... 
quiet weather across the region this morning...as weak shortwave 
ridging remains in place across Arizona and southeast California. A 
large upper low was moving through the Pacific northwest...meanwhile 
the 592dm 500 mb ridge remains centered over western Mexico. Temperatures have 
dropped off quickly since midnight and are generally in the middle 70s 
across the deserts as of 09z. 


Forecast for the next several days will be one of mostly sunny skies 
and dry conditions. Dry southwesterly flow aloft is well established 
across the area...this was evident on Tuesday when there was little 
to no cloud cover across the entire state of Arizona...Southern 
California...or southern Utah. I am expecting much of the same today 
as weak ridging and southwesterly flow aloft should keep any 
moisture well to the east of the forecast area. 500 mb heights are 
forecast to fall slightly today and consequently...temperatures should be a 
degree or two cooler than Tuesday. Still looking at normal highs 
around 105-107 across the deserts. Pretty much a persistence 
forecast and a blend of the best performing temperature guidance 
through Sunday. 


Model solutions differ slightly for next week. Both the European and 
GFS indicate the upper high will shift eastward next week with the 
GFS showing a slight suggestion of a monsoon-type southeasterly 
flow. European places the high over Colorado and brings in very dry 
northeasterly winds. Hard to put much stock in either solution this 
far in advance but the GFS ensemble mean and naefs mean agree with 
the idea of weak moisture advection out of Mexico. I inserted 
climatology-like probability of precipitation mainly for areas east of Phoenix for the middle of 
next week to account for this possibility. That being said...the 
models have been hinting at increasing moisture on the last day of 
the forecast for a few days now. Moisture was initially suggested 
for Sunday...then Monday...then Tuesday...etc. Will wait to see 
better run to run consistency before inserting anything above climatology. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona...including kphx...kiwa and ksdl... 
southeast California and southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh... 


Clear skies and overall light winds expected at all taf sites. 
Occasional gusts 15-20 knots will be possible at metropolitan Phoenix sites 
this afternoon. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Friday through Tuesday... 
very dry southwesterly flow aloft will prevail through early next 
week...with only a slight increase in moisture working into portions 
of southern Arizona over the weekend. Indications are only far 
Southeast Arizona and New Mexico would be affected by this moisture. 
Therefore...dry weather...clear skies...lighter winds can be 
expected through the entire period. Minimum afternoon humidity 
values will fall into the single digits...with fair to poor 
overnight recovery. Some higher wind gusts may be possible Thursday 
and Friday afternoon...though still well below critical thresholds. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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Discussion...vasquez/leins 
aviation...Kuhlman 
fire weather...MO/Meyers