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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 46 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 46 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 43 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 43 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
845 PM MST Wednesday may 22 2013 


Synopsis... 
a broad low pressure system will settle over the Pacific northwest 
through Memorial Day. This will produce periods of gusty southwest 
winds and dry conditions across northern Arizona. 


&& 


Discussion... 
red flag warnings for Wednesday verified well with surface observations. 
Wind speeds have fallen below the critical fire weather thresholds 
this evening and the warnings for tonight have expired. Stronger 
winds and critical fire weather conditions will return tomorrow by 
middle morning as a short wave trough moves through the Great Basin. A 
red flag warning and Wind Advisory are in effect for Thursday over 
much of northern Arizona. 


Looking at the larger scale pressure pattern through Memorial 
Day...a broad low pressure system will remain in place over the 
Pacific northwest and a high pressure ridge will persist over the 
Great Plains region. This weather pattern will produce a warm and 
dry weather conditions over northern Arizona with periods of gusty 
winds. The latest model projections are in good agreement that the 
Pacific northwest low will weaken slightly from Thursday to Friday. 
This pressure change will weaken the surface pressure gradients in 
Arizona and reduce our wind speeds. These lower wind speeds may be 
enough to keep most areas just below red flag conditions from Friday 
Onward. However...we will need to closely monitor the weather 
situation through the weekend as subtle changes in the upper level 
pattern could increase our wind speeds above red flag thresholds. 


&& 


Aviation... 
for the 06z package...VFR for most for the next 24 hours. After 16z 
Thursday...winds southwest 15-30 kts gusts to 40 kts...areas of bldu 
possible across Navajo and Apache counties. Aviation discussion not 
updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a broad trough of low pressure will settle over the western states 
through Sunday...bringing warm and dry southwest flow across 
Arizona. 


The red flag warning remains in effect for Thursday for much of 
northern Arizona. Conditions should improve tonight as relative 
humidity increases and winds decrease. Some locations downwind of 
higher terrain may experience breezy overnight winds. On Thursday 
..very low relative humidity and strong winds will get an earlier 
start across much of northern Arizona and Thursday red flag 
warning start time was advanced to 10 am MST. 


Friday through Sunday...southwest flow will continue but slow with 
time. The latest forecast data indicate a chance for critical fire 
weather conditions on Friday for mainly Navajo and Apache counties. 
Borderline conditions are expected across the Northland Saturday 
and Sunday afternoons. 




&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories... 


Red flag warning from 10 am to 8 PM MST 
Thursday for azz104>117-137>140. 


Wind Advisory from 10 am to 8 PM MST Thursday for 
azz004>007-009>017-039-040. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.........Bohlin 
aviation.......bohlin 
fire weather...dl 


For northern Arizona weather information visit 
weather.Gov/Flagstaff