marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean

NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC

745 PM PDT sun 21 Mar 2010

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant

.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Do not plan on making any sig changes to the fcst attm.

Seas...wwiii looks reasonable across the cstl/offshr waters when

compared to latest sfc obs.

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Previous discussion...

The NE pac will continue to be influenced by the stg progressive

flow currently organizing over the wrn pac. Assocd with the

progressive flow moving through the NE pac tngt through this

coming week need to watch for a number a active shortwaves and

resulting dwnstrm ridging. Through the nxt 48 hours most of the

mdls in fairly good agreement...except ECMWF a little fast. Also

concern about the interaction of the shrtwave currently near

30n137w as it lifts out to the NE over srn calif. After 48 hours

need to blend GFS/ECMWF mdls towards the their ensemble means

with the stg progressive flow.

At the sfc...fntl bndry over cntrl calif ofshr will dsipt tngt

as increasing ridging bldg twd the ofshr into Mon and Tue. In

looking at the 06z and 12z runs in particular over the cntl into

srn calif ofshr have shwn a tight pres gradient near and W of

Point Conception for late Mon into early Tue...due to strgr high

pres ridging bldg twd the ofshr combined with stgr low pres

troughing just E of the coast. Therefore will add an area of

gale winds over the NE ptn of the srn calif ofshr late Mon into

Tue arnd 35 kt.

Then the major concern will switch to the WA/OR ofshr given the

blend noted above...with a significant low with front moving

through the wtrs with area of gale winds to 35 kt Wed into early

Thu. Later on Thu into Fri...a weaking cold front will move E

over the srn calif ofshr...as a Sharp Ridge moves into the ofshr

ahd of a stg frontal bndry.

As of seas...will go with nww3 wave mdl.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are

subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS

12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...

.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale late Wed into Thu...low to

MDT confdc.

.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale late Wed into Thu...MDT

confdc.

.Pz6 California waters...

.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.

.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.

.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...NE ptn...gale late Mon into

Tue...low to MDT confdc.

.Forecaster achorn/mcrandal. Ocean forecast branch.