568 
fxus63 kiwx 201922 
afdiwx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana 
322 PM EDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Short term... 
tonight through Sunday night. 


Cold front has worked through the County Warning Area for the most part today. 
However...lift and moisture associated with this has struggled to move 
south all day. As a result...areas in the far northwest have remained 
cloudy and in the 30s and 40s...but dry...so far. Outside the clouds 
temperatures have rebounded into the upper 40s to middle 50s. An area of 
stratus attempted to advect south and west in the NE flow but has 
struggled to also work south across the remainder of the area. This 
poses a challenging forecast for tonight in terms of precipitation 
chances...cloud cover and temperatures. Clouds continue to increase back 
across Illinois and locations SW and this is showing signs of moving 
towards the area tonight. However...models have shown that this moisture 
may be slow to move NE until the main low begins to approach Sunday 
and Sunday night. Am concerned that lows could be off by several 
degrees potentially tonight...but also a rather large bust factor 
looms. If clouds stay away in southeast half...expected fast drop in temperatures 
will occur and lows to go to forecast levels. If cloud cover moves 
in and dewpoints remain up then lows will end up closer to lamp 
guidance in the low to middle 40s southeast and 30s northwest. 


Cloud cover may break for a bit during the day Sunday. If this 
occurs then temperatures will be warmer than currently forecast as well. 
Considering low confidence in models right now will just let things 
ride and let overnight crew see how things are moving along. Probability of precipitation 
still look good for Sunday night as decent low draws closer. Exact 
timing and extent of the precipitation will be a challenge but southeast half or 
so look to be in best shape to see measurable precipitation. Will maintain 
likely probability of precipitation in these areas. 


&& 


Long term... 


Mainly minor tweaks to the forecast for the entire 
period. Models in fair agreement pushing low pressure east from the 
Ohio Valley and building weak high pressure for most of the week. 
Another weak low pressure system slides to our south late in the 
week that could bring a small chance of rain to the area. 


Highs will mainly be in the 50s for the week with a few upper 40s 
possible northern sections Friday and Saturday. Lows in the 30s with 
the coolest morning Tuesday and Saturday when a few upper 20s will 
be possible. 


&& 


Aviation.../18z tafs/ 


Main issue this taf period is timing of precipitation...that is if it ever 
reaches the terminals. Snow/rain showers currently to the west-northwest of ksbn 
are slowly moving into the forecast area this afternoon but have 
really only affected kbeh so far. 


MVFR ceilings that rolled into ksbn this morning are not going 
anywhere. Temperatures remain on the warmer side so expect any 
precipitation that does fall at ksbn to be in the form of rain...however...timing 
and confidence are on the low side. 


A totally different story at kfwa as they have remained VFR 
throughout the morning and into the afternoon hours. MVFR cloud 
deck that was moving southward earlier has now stalled and 
continues to stay north of the terminal. Expect that lower ceilings 
will eventually build in after 00z and possible rain chances late 
this evening...however...much like ksbn...confidence and timing 
are still on the low side. 


Winds this afternoon are in the 10-15kt range but will decrease to 
around 10kts overnight. 


&& 


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...none. 
Michigan...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Sunday for lmz043-046. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Fisher 
long term...sabones 
aviation...weisser