628 
fxus63 kind 141435 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
1035 am EDT sun Mar 14 2010 


Update... 


Based on curret observation and what is upstream...early forecast is working 
very well. However will need minor update to remove wording for 
morning. 
&& 


Aviation...discussion for 141200z taf issuance. Disturbance 
rotating around upper low expected to drop south of the local area 
by the late morning hours...so rain affecting mainly the eastern 
terminals should taper off by 141500z. Little in the way of 
visibility restrictions noted in the rain areas. IFR ceilings 
006-009 above ground level becoming less widespread with time as 
boundary level becomes more mixed and some drier air begins to 
advect in from the north. IFR ceilings should affect kind/kbmg for 
the most part this morning in the precipitation areas...with these 
conditions dissipating as the precipitation ends. Based on upstream 
observations...ceilings should settle to around 015 for the rest of 
the day. 


Model wind fields suggests surface wind gusts 15-20kts probable from 
360-020 headings...especially after 141500z as pressure gradient 
tightens up in the wake of surface trough. 


&& 


Discussion... 
main challenge will be how long to keep rain chances as upper low 
currently centered over the Carolina's moves off the Atlantic coast. 


Radar shows another band of light showers over Northern Ohio and 
Northeast Indiana is poised to rotate south across our region and it 
should by middle morning. Most areas should receive light rain 
through 8 am and mainly across our southeast sections after that. 
With a broad cyclonic flow across our region and quite a bit of low 
level moisture will continue scattered light showers rest of today 
and will mention low chances tonight across our eastern two thirds. 


Models show some subsidence tonight...but low clouds will continue. 
NAM soundings indicate drier air should move in from the north late 
Monday and Monday night. 


As far as temperatures are concerned will go with a MOS blend today 
and slightly above warmer met temperatures tonight as clouds 
continue. There could be partial sunshine late Monday which may 
allow some areas to reach 50. 


Weak upper ridge temporarily builds across our region Tuesday and 
airmass is much drier so will increase diurnal temperature range a 
little. 


GFS and Gem models brings another weak upper low southeast into the 
middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will add more 
clouds and slight chance of showers across our far west and 
southwest. 


The rest of the extended will be quiet until day 7 as an upper ridge 
builds east across our region. GFS and European still indicate a 
cold front may bring a chance of showers across our region by next 
weekend. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...kwiatkowski/jh 
aviation...jas