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afdilx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lincoln Illinois 
528 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Discussion... 
issued 136 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Though the weather is pretty benign...there are still several 
systems that will be affecting the area. The first will be a a cold 
front moving through today...as upper level low short wave on 
Saturday...and another cold front on Sunday evening. 


Short term...tonight though Friday night. 
Msas surface data shows cold front moving through the forecast 
area this afternoon...and will clear rest of forecast area overnight. Morning 
soundings along and behind the front are very dry...hence the lack 
of cloudiness with passage of the system. Moisture channel 
satellite data and morning upper air analysis charts show 
predomainate northwest flow aloft with a minor short wave moving 
southeast over south central Canada. Expect the current cold front 
to move through region tonight...ushering in cold airmass. Cold 
air SC currently seen in northern Iowa and central WI will be 
advecting south into Illinois by late tonight...as the colder air flows 
into the region behind the initial cold front. Therefore...clouds 
to increase later tonight and remain through day of Friday with 
temperatures only in the 30s. On Friday afternoon...the Canadian minor 
upper wave will bring in some additional upper level 
moisture...but no precipitation expected. 


Long term...Saturday through Wednesday. 
Models are overall pretty similar until you get to the extended 
periods. The eur model appears to be more realistic and so it is 
being used. Another short wave moves down through the northwest flow 
aloft on Saturday...it still should come through dry. 


A more significant upper system moves into the northern plains and 
the Great Lakes on Sunday to Monday. The upper low system closes 
off and drives a cold front through Illinois on Sunday into Monday. 
The guld will be a little more open and so there is the potential 
for a little more moisture. We therefore will continue the minor 
probability of precipitation. Therefore few significant changes made. 






&& 


Aviation... 
issued 525 PM CST Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Cold front about ready to push through cmi this evening followed by 
northwest winds and MVFR ceilings...first in pia and bmi between 03z and 05z 
and points south and east aftr 06z. Large band of stratocu with 
bases of 1500 to 2500 feet extends from near Ottumwa Iowa NE through 
southern Wisconsin tracking southeast at 15 kts. Models suggest some 
break up in the leading edge this evening but all agree clouds 
should fill back in during the day on Thursday as low level cold 
advection settles south across the Midwest. May be a few flurries 
around during the day but will not carry as coverage will be widely 
scattered at best. Northwest winds will continue on Thursday with occasional 
gusts around 25 kts. Winds should gradually diminish aftr 22z Thursday with 
a decrease in clouds from northwest to southeast Thursday evening. 


Smith 
&& 


Ilx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$