161 
fxus65 kpih 231041 
afdpih 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
341 am MST sun Nov 23 2008 


Short term...today through Tuesday night 
some lingering snow showers in eastern Highlands early this 
morning and expect to move east by noon. Stratus has become 
widespread in the Snake River Plain at 3 am as well and upped 
morning cloud cover extensively in this area through noon. Could 
affect high temperatures today as persistence of the stratus will 
lower snake plain high temperatures considerably. Strong upper 
ridge moves east and will be over the state by this afternoon. 
With this pattern setting up could be ripe for valley inversions 
to set up and high temperatures in the valleys may be too high 
Monday and Tuesday but with no snow cover did not really cut high 
temperatures all that much those Days. Ridge moves east Tuesday 
setting up southerly flow aloft which will allow more moisture 
into the state by Tuesday night and have isolated showers in the 
mountains returning then. Pretty dry short term period for the 
most part however. 
Gk 


Long term...Wednesday through Sunday. Models inconsistency is once 
again a problem. GFS and European model (ecmwf) now bring in the next low pressure 
system into Southern California and track it over southern Nevada 
and either southern Utah (ecmwf) or northern Arizona (gfs). Both of 
these tracks would produce limited precipitation for Idaho...perhaps 
the southern Highlands could see some. Given the drastic change from 
last nights model run...have made little changes to the forecast. 
Have lowered precipitation chances about 10 percent in respect of 
this latest change. Otherwise...did not adjust temperatures or snow levels. 
It should be noted that if the models revert to previous runs...that 
this system could be a significant snow producer for the high 
country. The two models differ wildly over next weekend as the GFS 
digs a secondary low into the West Coast and cuts it off over 
Southern California while the European model (ecmwf) maintains a ridge in the west 
with a trough in the east. Once again...no changes to next weekends 
forecast due to the run to run and model to model inconsistency. 


&& 


Aviation...a low stratus deck of 500-1500ft is moving across the 
snake plain this morning. Low ceilings will be possible at all taf 
sites until this deck breaks up later this morning. Ksun is the 
least likely to maintain a low deck due to the downslope winds that 
should push the moisture out of that location. Winds are expected to 
remain relatively light today. 


&& 




Pih watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$