247 
fxus65 ktwc 141623 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
923 am MST sun Mar 14 2010 


Synopsis...a low pressure system will move across northeast Arizona 
today. This system will bring a few rain and snow showers to areas 
mainly in the White Mountains along with gusty winds at times 
across the area. Dry conditions with a strong warming trend next 
week as broader high pressure builds over the area. 


&& 


Discussion...the upper low was centered over northeast Arizona this 
morning with very limited moisture available for precipitation or 
cloudiness this far south. The best large scale forcing needed for 
cloudiness and precipitation will remain northeast through east of 
the area today and tonight. However...still cannot rule out a few 
showers mainly in the White Mountains as the low drops farther south 
today and tonight. That said...will be updating the forecast to 
lower some of the cloud coverage depicted in the gridded forecast 
and adjust high temperatures up a degree or two. Please refer to the 
additional sections below for more details. 


&& 


Aviation...a cold front will drop in from the north today and bring 
scattered to locally broken decks in the 5-8kft above ground level...mainly NE of 
Tucson. Wind speeds will increase out of the west to SW in the 12-20 knots 
range with gusts to 25 kts...before turning northwest behind the 
front later. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...there are no significant fire weather concerns at 
this time. Some gusty winds are expected today as a low pressure 
system moves across The Four Corners region. A few rain and snow 
showers expected with this system...mainly east and north of Safford. 


&& 


Climate...with stronger high pressure forecast to build over the 
area next week...Tucson will be flirting with 80 degrees for the 
first time in 2010 by middle week. The historical average 1st date is 
February 12th. A special webpage has been posted on our website 
http://weather.Gov/Tucson 


&& 


Previous discussion...no surprises as the low pushes into the 4 corners 
region. Front now draping down into central Arizona and appears to 
be through Phoenix. Not much moisture associated with it this far 
south. Main chance of showers still looks to be northeast our our 
area...with a couple inches of snow possible in the mountains of 
Greenlee and Graham counties. Cooling still expected today along 
with some gusty winds...but nothing like advisory levels. 


Large pattern broad based ridge building in from the coast over the 
next 48 to 72 hours behind this system. Expect dry conditions with a 
rapid warming trend most of the week. Current forecast handles all 
of this pretty well. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Tucson