964 
fxus64 kbmx 231136 
afdbmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
535 am CST sun Nov 23 2008 


Update...aviation discussion. 


&& 


Short term...today and tonight. 


Middle layer cloud deck blanketing central Alabama and extending back 
into Texas will likely hang around most of the day as 850mb flow 
remains from the west. Patchy light has been falling across a good 
portion of the area overnight and will look at latest radar trends 
before deciding to introduce light rain into first part of today. 
Cloud cover will also mean cooler temperatures and lowered maximum temperatures 
most areas. Mostly cloudy conditions will continue into tonight but 
some clearing possible southern counties as dry slot works northward 
into Gulf Coast region ahead of surface front. 


Increased rain chances northwest counties tonight as models indicate 
some middle level lift passing through north Alabama ahead of primary 
forcing along front. Rainfall amounts will be light with stable air 
keeping precipitation in the form of showers. 


58/rose 


Long term...Monday through Saturday. 


As the surface low intensifies over the Great Lakes...a cold front 
will push through central Alabama Monday. Good agreement between NAM 
and GFS on timing of front...entering northwest central Alabama 
Monday midday...and exiting the southeast during the early evening. 
Rain activity will progress across the state during the day 
ahead...ahead of and along the frontal boundary. With upper level 
dynamics associated with the short wave remaining to our north...and 
better instabilities remaining to our south...do not expect thunder 
with this system. 


With the exit of the front...northwesterly flow develops as high 
pressure builds back in...keeping the area dry through Thanksgiving 
day. Will continue to undercut MOS daytime highs based on forecast 
thickness values. With center of high located over the area 
Wednesday and Thursday...will maintain lows in the upper 20s to 
lower 30s. 


As the high shifts to the east...return flow will develop Thursday 
night...ahead of a short wave moving into the Southern Plains. 
Latest run of the GFS is better organized...and in closer agreement 
with the European model (ecmwf). At this time....it looks like the short wave and 
associated surface features will bring rain to central Alabama 
Friday and early Saturday. Will maintain chance probability of precipitation for now...until 
more details are ironed out in future forecasts. 


14 


&& 


Aviation...12z taf discussion. 


Middle level clouds (5-6 thousand feet) will hang tough across the 
area as cloud layer wind flow will be from the west-northwest. 
Patchy light rain will also occur through 15z but pose no restrictions 
to visibilities. VFR flight category through the period. 


58/rose 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 53 37 55 36 52 / 0 20 60 10 0 
Anniston 53 36 58 37 53 / 10 10 60 10 0 
Birmingham 54 44 56 37 54 / 10 20 60 10 0 
Tuscaloosa 54 47 60 39 57 / 10 30 70 10 0 
Calera 54 44 55 41 55 / 10 10 60 10 0 
Auburn 52 39 54 41 55 / 10 10 60 20 0 
Montgomery 55 43 61 41 58 / 10 10 60 20 0 
Troy 55 41 61 40 58 / 10 10 50 20 0 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$