182 
fxus64 kmob 231041 aaa 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
445 am CST sun Nov 23 2008 


Update...have updated to account for rainshowers moving over the 
area from the northeast due to slower than expected shortwave. 


16 


&& 


Short term...(today and tonight)onshore flow will continue over the 
area through the short term ahead of a system moving over the 
northern rockies and plains. GFS moves precipitation in quicker than 
NAM...with scattered probability of precipitation moving over the northwestern forecast area late 
tonight. With no precipitation showing upstream on radar...have bumped mav 
numbers down...leaning towards a mav/met blend...to slow things 
down. 


16 


(monday through Tuesday night)by Monday morning the cold front 
should be coming out of the Ozarks and into northwest Mississippi on 
track to be near Interstate 65 from Mobile to Greenville around 
sunset Monday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the 
area in advance of the front with the better coverage in the late 
morning and afternoon spreading from west to east. Will have 
isolated thunderstorms in the forecast but mainly along the coast 
and east of I-65 in the afternoon. Frontal convergence and convective available potential energy up 
to near 500 j/kg in the warmer air of the afternoon may be just 
enough for a few storms to develop. Higher helicity values are to 
the north where cape is almost non-existent on Monday but with the 
right rear quadrant of an upper jet passing over in the afternoon 
decided to extend the chance for isolated storms to the northeast. 
Post frontal light rain will linger for a bit Monday night but 
expect rain to be out of area by sunrise Tuesday with skies 
clearing. This air mass is not as cold as last front and expect 
temperatures in the 60s on Tuesday with around freezing over the 
north and east by Wednesday morning. /11 


Long term...(wednesday through saturday)high pressure moves east 
across the Tennessee Valley Wednesday and Thursday with cool/cold 
temperatures confined to the east Thursday morning. A slight 
possibility of some light over running type rain to spread into 
southeast Mississippi on Thanksgiving day as an upper trough 
approaches and some isentropic wrings out some rain. A better chance 
for rain Thanksgiving night through Friday as precipitable water 
values increase to over 1.50 inches and the synoptic scale lift in 
advance of the front continues to destabilize the atmosphere. 
Temperatures close to normal for this time of year...generally middle 
40s to upper 60s. /11 


&& 


Aviation...(for 12z forecast)general VFR conditions through the 
period ahead of a frontal passage Monday night. Overcast deck is 
expected to remain well overhead. 


/16 


&& 


Marine...an approaching upper system will push a moderate front 
over Alabama/northwest Florida coastal waters Monday night...moderate offshore flow 
will settle into middle week as surface high pressure moves over the 
southeastern Continental U.S.. onshore flow will return by the end of the week 
as the surface high moves over...then off the eastern Seaboard. 


/16 


&& 


Fire weather...surface humidity drops into the 30s over the east 
and northern sections this afternoon but short term trend is for 
increasing humidity as next front turns the winds more to the south. 
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon...following the next front...will 
see afternoon humidity below 35 percent once again. /11 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 61 52 66 46 / 05 10 80 40 
Pensacola 60 52 67 48 / 00 05 60 50 
Destin 62 52 65 53 / 00 05 60 50 
Evergreen 57 43 62 40 / 05 10 70 30 
Waynesboro 60 44 65 39 / 10 30 80 20 
Camden 57 43 63 40 / 05 10 80 20 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$