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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
102 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Update...aviation discussion. 


&& 


Discussion... 


Temperatures have already fallen into the upper 30s and lower 40s area wide 
this morning...and will continue to fall another degree or two by 
sunrise. Clear skies will continue through the day today...allowing 
temperatures to warm into the lower 70s by this afternoon. Cloud cover will 
begin to increase on Saturday ahead of the next weather system. 


Models remain fairly consistent with the timing and track of the 
system coming through Saturday night and into Sunday. The rain 
should hold off until after 00z Sunday...with showers and 
thunderstorms spreading from west to east through the morning hours. 
Shear values are still rather high and the Euro is still trying to 
bring middle 50s dew points into the southern half of central Alabama 
ahead of the cold front Sunday morning. However...cape values are 
almost nonexistent with this event. The bulk of the moisture and the 
instabilities will remain well to our south. Decided to go ahead and 
take the severe wording out of the severe weather potential statement for now and go with a chance 
of strong storms...but an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. 
One thing that we will have to watch closely is the development of a 
rain shield across the Gulf Coast that could potentially cut off the 
moisture stream into the central portions of the state. If that 
happens...then our chances of getting dew points up into the middle 50s 
will be very low and our chance of strong to severe weather will 
decrease as well. 


The cold front exits the area Sunday evening but skies will remain 
cloudy. Will keep slight chance to chance of rain showers in the 
forecast through Monday due to the wrap around moisture behind the 
system. Temperatures will fall into the 50s for highs on Monday with lows 
in the middle and upper 30s. Skies will finally begin to clear by 
Monday evening and should remain mostly clear through Wednesday. 
Temperatures will rebound with highs back up into the 70s by Wednesday. 


A second system will bring another round of showers and 
thunderstorms to the region late in the week. 


19 


&& 


Aviation...18z taf discussion. 


No aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours. 


10/arm 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


19/10