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Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
1145 am akst Wednesday Nov 19 2008 


Analysis... 
eastern North Pacific under more of a meridional flow pattern. Strong 
jet off Asia splits around 170e driven by major upper low over 
northern Japan. Unusual upper ridge over Bering Sea with next major 
upper low centered near 50n 150w over weird surface complex. Tropical 
looking system centered near 41n 172w at 18z. At least 4 surface low 
centers in our eastern Pacific system including wild cold top cumulus 
cluster centered 41n 142w. Long S-SW fetch 35n to Panhandle. 


Short range...high amplitude trough over entire Gulf of Alaska and 
northern Pacific today...a very complex low pressure system 
with multiple low pressure centers continues to move north along 
the back side of western North America ridge. Northernmost low 
located near 55n 150w with occluded front wrapping around low and 
then east and southeast off of southeast Panhandle. Satellite imagery 
reveals approach of the occluded front and associated clouds. Any 
sunlight today will be filtered with high overcast that will 
continue to lower as the front and its associated light rain 
approaches the coast by late evening. 


Pressure gradient between the multiple Gulf lows (995mb) and and 
a 1042mb high in the northwest territories is setting up a significant 
400 in our northern zones. Inherited Wind Advisory for zone 18 
from noon today to 6pm akst Thursday still on track. Wind 
Advisory for zone 17 in effect from 3 PM this afternoon through 6 
PM akst Thursday looks solid in model data...but with few data 
observation will be hard to verify. 


Long term... 
all 12z Ops models and ensembles crash a lower 980s low into the 
Queen Charlottes between 18-23z on Friday. Prefer 12z UKMET on 
00z Sat forecast due to main old low more northwest toward pacv. By 00z sun 
the Ops models and ensemble spreads become large. One has to 
assume that the main surface low will be back around Kodiak Island 
but all bets are off about development toward the eastern Gulf. 
Will leave the grids alone after 00z Sat due to high uncertainty. 




Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...wind advection akz017 & 018. 
Marine...gale pkz012-013-022-041>043-051-052. 
Smcr pkz011-021-031>036. 
$$ 
Ccc/jcc 

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