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Area forecast discussion 
southcentral and southwest Alaska 
415 am akst sun Nov 23 2008 


Model discussion... 
models are trending toward each other at least in the short term. 
However differences at the surface become more apparent in the by Monday 
night. Forecast leaned toward the GFS in the middle term but confidence 
is low. European model (ecmwf) was the more consistent on a run to run basis but 
remains the outlier in the Gulf Monday night through Tuesday. Main 
difference is that the ec wants to swing the upper level trough 
farther north than the GFS which really wants to dig the cold air 
toward the Alaska Penn. Believe that for this time of year the ec 
solution is probably the best. 


Analysis and upper levels... 
southwest flow in the Gulf and across Bristol Bay continues around a 
weakening surface low in the western Copper River valley and an upper 
level low near Norton Sound. This is producing snow showers across 
the northeastern Gulf Coast and eastern Prince William Sound as well 
as through Bristol Bay and into King Salmon and the Aleutian Range. 
Radar is showing pretty good flow up the Kenai Peninsula but it is 
just starting to be reported at the surface. Snow is mixing with rain 
on southern Kodiak Island as warmer air pushes in at the upper levels 
from the south. 


A 970s low in the western Bering will move eastward today hugging the 
Aleutians. The low and the associated front which currently stretches 
from north of Shemya through the eastern Aleutians and is moving 
toward the Alaska Penn will bring gale force winds and a mix of rain and 
snow to the Aleutians and blizzard conditions to the pribilofs. 
Models are indicating the front will stay just south of the pribilofs 
today. However there is the chance that Saint George will mix with 
rain while Saint Paul remains cold enough for blizzard conditions 
through the day. 


As the low out west moves east and the two upper level lows merge 
over western Alaska..this will push the current surface low out of 
southcentral. 


Short term forecast... 
southcentral..the continued southerly flow will help the showers and 
light snowfall remain across the area through this afternoon. There 
will be a brief break in precipitation for eastern Prince William Sound in 
between the two air masses..transitioning from the surface low to the 
north to the approaching frontal system and Bristol Bay low. 


Out west..expect strong southeast to east flow for the Bering and 
Aleutians with the approaching front. Snow will mix with rain along 
the Alaska Penn and Aleutians while the Mainland will stay cold enough 
for all snow today. However as warm southeast flow moves over Bristol 
Bay tonight they may mix with freezing rain and/or sleet before 
changing to rain and snow on Monday. There is also the potential for 
blowing snow and reduced visible on Monday along the y-k Delta coast. 


Long term forecast... 
the longwave trough is expected to remain in its current position 
through the middle of this week. This will result in a continuing 
train of lows moving through the forecast area one right after the 
other. 




Aer/alu...watch/warning summary 
public...Blizzard Warning 195 
marine...storms 170 172 175 
gales 120 150 155 160 165 171 176 179 180 185 
freezing spray 180 185 
fire weather...none 


Rain shower Nov 08 

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