751 
fxak67 pajk 222300 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
200 PM akst Sat Nov 22 2008 


Short term...the latest satellite imagery shows a low just 
south of precipitable waters  with an associated weather front over the eastern 
Gulf. There is another low over the North Pacific that will lift 
north-northeast tonight and deepen into the upper 980s as it moves west of 
Dixon Entrance. There is snow falling near paya this morning with 
minor accumulations...they may mix with some rain this afternoon 
but with a east wind think they will remain most frozen. There is 
a ridge of high pressure over the Panhandle at this time that is building 
in strength as the front moves over the area this has produced 
Wind Advisory wind near pagy. These winds may diminish late this 
afternoon as the pressure gradient orientation changes but there 
is a chance that these winds will remain strong into the evening. 
The majority of the Panhandle is seeing light rain with the 
exception to areas near interior valleys as with better access to 
colder air snow is falling. The far southern areas is not see 
much precipitation at this time but as the ridge axis pushes further east they 
will begin through the afternoon 


The upper ridge will continue to push to the east and increase 
the onshore flow to keep precipitation likely to categorical this 
evening. The exception to that will be the far northern Inner 
Channels as they will remain the driest with just a chance of 
some snow and rain. 


The developing low will lift into the southeast Gulf through sun and 
will increase the winds to Wind Advisory over the southern three 
zones through the afternoon and continue through the afternoon. 
The hdyer area winds will remain on the light side but the 
southwest coast will see the strongest winds. The marine areas 
will see winds increase to gales over southeast Gulf and Clarence 
Strait. The central Panhandle will see winds increase to 20kt 
from the north and places will see locally breezy conditions. 
Over the northern half winds will switch to the north through the 
day but for the most part will remain fairly weak. Precipitation 
wise...there is significant wwa with this system that will 
enhance precipitation rates to be heavy at times over the southern 
zones. There will colder temperatures near Hyder with an outflow NE wind 
so they will see snow developing in the late morning into the 
early afternoon with accumulations of 4 to 8 inches through the 
late Sun afternoon. The northern areas will see precipitation but 
amounts will vary as a deformation band from the system moving 
over the this morning will get hung up over the area. Temperatures will 
be near freezing but at this time with the warm air advection and not much cold air in 
the boundary layer it will be mainly liquid but the Haines 
area/Highway may see significant snow amounts. So with that said 
will put in a few inches of snow through Sun afternoon in the 
Haines area. 


Long term...started with a blend of the 12z UKMET and 00z European model (ecmwf) 
for Sun night as they seem to have best handle on low track across 
the area. Went with the European model (ecmwf) for Monday into Tuesday night...then went 
with the new HPC grids for the remainder of the period. This was 
best middle ground solution for systems for Monday Onward. 
Overall...pattern will be active with mean trough axis well west of the 
area and ridge just east of area...keeping any significant cold air 
well west of the area through the end of the week. 


For Sun night...as low cuts across the central Panhandle...looks 
like advisory level winds will continue through the evening over the 
southern area. Over the north...ptype will be tricky especially northwest of a 
pajn-paoh axis. At this time...am leaning toward going with mainly rain in 
that area...although the far north should see a mix or snow. If precipitation 
is heavier and winds become rather light in the lower 2k feet 
however...a period of wet snow would occur along the pajn-paoh corridor. 
Any snow in the Hyder area should turn to rain as flow becomes 
more south-southwest there during the evening...but they could get a few more 
inches of snow there before changing over. 


Another system will be moving into the area by late Monday. This will 
bring more precipitation to the area. Given the amount of southeast flow in lower 
levels even in the far north...ptype should be mainly rain. 


For the remainder of the period...systems will be coming in fairly 
quickly. However...upper ridge will be building to the east of the 
area so the main low track should shift a bit more to the west. This 
should diminish the precipitation threat overall to the far southeastern area 
especially late in the week. 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...Wind Advisory from 6 am to 9 PM akst Sunday for akz027. 
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM akst Sunday 
for akz019. 
Wind Advisory until 6 PM akst this afternoon for akz018. 
Wind Advisory from 6 am Sunday to midnight akst Sunday night for 
akz028-029. 
Marine...Gale Warning for pkz035-036-041>043-051-052. 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-031>034. 


$$ 


Abj/rwt 

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