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Northern Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska 
336 PM akst Sat Nov 22 2008 


Discussion... 
a messy situation for northern Alaska as strong zonal flow across 
the Pacific and broad but weak low over most of Mainland Alaska breaks 
down and transitions into a much more meridional flow by late next 
week. 


Models continue to have difficultly with the evolution of 
the flow impacting northern Alaska. The troubles are extremes in 
the North Pacific in handling the many low centers. However...for 
northern Alaska...the basic pattern seems to be well handled. 
Overall...we prefer the European model (ecmwf)...especially in the Middle Range. 
However...confidence is low in the details. 


Closed low aloft near Kaltag rotating cyclonically to be near 
Bering Strait by Monday afternoon...with shortwave ridge building 
into interior. Shortwave trough will move into SW Alaska Wednesday and 
thence NE across the interior Wednesday night/Thu. Thereafter the 
intensity and orientation of major ridge in the eastern Pacific 
becomes the major question. Operation GFS has been near the 
warmest of naefs ensembles..with European model (ecmwf) consistently keeping high 
farther south with firehose of warm wet air into Southeast Alaska. HPC 
also favored European model (ecmwf) idea..which has decent ensemble support. 


North Slope...winds remaining brisk through tomorrow at least. 
Wind chills no where near cold enough for advisories...but given 
this is the first sub-zero/wind combo...these have been headlined. 
Western zones may pick up some snow by Monday night as flow aloft 
becomes more southerly. 


West Coast...pressure gradient relaxing a bit next 24 hours. As 
upper low rotates around...more southerly flow developing by 
Monday may allow some snow to break out even as temperatures warm. 


Interior....substantial warming most areas next 36 hours as flow 
aloft becomes S-swly. Precipitation mostly minimal. 


Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...none 


&& 


Afg watches/warnings/advisories... 
heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 


Small Craft Advisory for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225. 


Brisk Wind Advisory for pkz230-pkz240-pkz245. 
&& 


$$ 


Rt Nov 08 

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