730 
fxus63 kmkx 192007 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
307 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Short term... 


Tonight and Saturday...forecast confidence...medium 


Low pressure across the northern Great Lakes pushes northeast 
tonight...while an associated cold front slides to the southeast of 
Wisconsin. Current surface observation and radar shows light to moderate 
snow stretching from central NE into northeast Iowa. This is all 
associated with frontogenesis behind the cold front. Latest NAM 
continues with a drier solution...with only the southern part of 
the County Warning Area seeing measurable precipitation this evening and overnight. The 
GFS and European model (ecmwf) are still indicating higher quantitative precipitation forecast amounts with up to 
two tenths in the far south. Based on current observation...elected to go 
with a blend between the models. Initially...precipitation may start out 
as a rain and snow mix especially in the southeast...but will 
quickly transition to all snow as cold air advection works in from 
the northwest and due to some evaporational cooling. Snow amounts 
are expected to be up to an inch in the far south with lesser 
amounts north. As the cold front sags south and drier air works in 
from the northwest...snow will end Saturday morning in most 
locations and during the afternoon in the far southeast. 




Sunday and Monday...forecast confidence...medium 


High pressure and dry northwest flow will bring clearing skies and 
dry conditions. Should expect mostly sunny conditions both days with 
temperatures around normal Sunday. Ridging works into the region 
Sunday night into Monday with temperatures rebounding to above 
normal once again. Southwesterly low level flow returns Monday 
afternoon ahead of a weak low pressure system over the northern 
plains. 


Long term... 


Tuesday through Friday...forecast confidence...medium 


Ridging on Tuesday transitions to a west or northwest flow across 
the region by late Wednesday. Long range models in general 
agreement with upper level pattern through Friday. Weak cold front 
pushes through Wednesday with the GFS slightly earlier than the 
European model (ecmwf). Quantitative precipitation forecast is very limited with only the GFS hinting at any at all 
with frontal passage...so kept with slight chance for rain for northwest portions Tuesday 
night and County Warning Area wide Wednesday. A secondary low develops along the 
boundary in the Southern Plains Thursday...tracking into the Tennessee 
River valley Friday. All precipitation associated with this system is 
expected to stay south of County Warning Area...thus a dry Thursday and Friday. 
Temperatures during the extended look to be 5 to 10 degrees above 
normal...with slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan. 




&& 


Aviation...a cold front will exit far southeast Wisconsin by 
evening. A Post frontal band of clouds are expected with ceilings 
lowering to MVFR category from the west this evening and 
overnight. A band of precipitation is expected to extend from 
southwest to northeast along a tightening baroclinic zone. 
Conditions above the boundary layer look cold enough for generally 
all snow. However a brief mix is possible at onset due to the 
warmer air near the ground. A narrow band of IFR visibilities are 
possible with the precipitation. 


&& 


Marine...Small Craft Advisory level winds and waves are expected 
starting this evening and continuing into Saturday night. Brisk 
north to northeast winds to 25 knots are possible in the wake of a 
cold front and low pressure moving into the middle Mississippi Valley. 
High waves are expected with the onshore winds through Saturday 
night. 


&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short/long term...16/Kuhlman 
aviation/marine...06/hentz