622 
fxus63 kdlh 230927 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
327 am CST sun Nov 23 2008 


Discussion...patchy freezing drizzle moving through the forecast area at this time 
in warm air advection pattern ahead of approaching surface cold front. Weak pieces of 
short wave energy also responsible for freezing drizzle affecting 
the area. Cold front will move through NE Minnesota this afternoon and northwest 
WI this evening exiting the area by 06z/24. Moisture is lacking 
and condensation pressure deficits are high. Bulk of the lift 
needed for precipitation will be south of the forecast area in the vicinity of potent 
energy moving into Nebraska. Have removed mention of precipitation today as 
a result. The freezing drizzle mentioned above will have 
exited/ended early this morning and will handle with short term 
forecasts. 


Condensation pressure deficits lower over northwest WI this evening 
ahead of the cold front as moisture rides up along the front. 
Enough low level convergence to squeeze out some light snow. Even 
though there is more moisture available...amounts will be very 
light. Cold core upper level cut off low drops south from northern 
Canada late tonight. Have added some flurries to the far northwest 
portion of the forecast area in the vicinity of this low. 


The upper low crosses the forecast area on Monday. Shot of cold air and 
vigorous piece of energy prognosticated to deposit some light snow. May 
see some one inch accumulations as this low will act like a 
clipper. Wind direction will become favorable for lake effect snow 
along the South Shore with cold air/fetch and lowering lake index 
and increasing lake induced cape. Les will not reach full 
potential until the afternoon. 


Ridging arrives Monday night with drier air and onset of warm air advection 
shutting off the les potential. The ridging will persist into 
Friday. 


&& 


Aviation...widespread IFR/MVFR conditions will areas of -fzdzsn 
will continue across the forecast area today...as southerly winds 
continue to advect low level moisture into the region. A trough will 
push west to east through the area this evening and tonight. 
Conditions should improve to VFR behind the trough...however MVFR 
conditions with areas of -sn will accompany the trofpa...especially 
across northwest Wisconsin overnight. Colder air will push into the 
region from the north late tonight into Monday...possibly bringing 
MVFR ceilings with -sn to the kinl taf site late in the period. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 36 22 30 17 / 10 10 40 10 
inl 34 21 24 9 / 10 10 30 10 
brd 37 26 32 14 / 10 10 30 10 
hyr 37 23 32 17 / 10 30 40 30 
asx 37 25 32 18 / 10 30 40 50 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this afternoon for lsz140- 
lsz141-lsz142. 




$$ 


Gsf/liles