317 
fxus63 kmkx 142042 
afdmkx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 
342 PM CDT sun Mar 14 2010 


Short term...MDT to high forecast confidence through Wednesday. The western 
periphery of the large low pressure area over the eastern portion of 
the USA will move east of WI on Monday with shortwave ridging then 
taking hold into Monday nt. Scattered-broken cloud cover will prevail in southeast 
WI with few- scattered clouds in south central WI for tonight into Monday. A 
Canadian shortwave trough will then track through Minnesota and into Iowa 
on Tuesday and continue to the lower MS River Valley by 00z Thursday. Will 
maintain previous forecasts in keeping majority of clouds and small 
threat of precipitation to the west of the County Warning Area. Thus with partly to MO clear 
conditions expected within an already mild airmass...should see 
upper 50s well inland of Lake Michigan with isolated 60 degree temperatures 
possible. This is based on 925 mb temperatures of 7-9 c and warm temperatures 
currently observed over western and central WI this afternoon. 


Long term...MDT forecast confidence in extended. Will continue to 
follow European model (ecmwf) which HPC gives the most weight. High pressure over 
Iowa and MO on Wednesday will shift to the southeast USA on Thursday while a shortwave 
trough and low pressure move eastward across southern Canada. Southwesterly winds 
will result with high temperatures in the lower 60s...no lake breeze 
expected. An upper trough will dig into the western USA and Great 
Plains Thursday nt and Friday with a NE to SW pressure trough/cold front 
to move into WI Friday after. Cyclogenesis will then occur along the 
boundary with the low moving northeastward through Michigan and into Ontario on 
Sat. Good chances of rain are expected with this system along with 
rain or snow showers after frontal passage on Sat with the upper wave aloft. 
A cooler and drier airmass will return for Sunday. 




&& 


Aviation...current area of clouds is shrinking over southern WI...with 
mainly scattered to broken VFR expected this evening. Main concern over the 
next day is the possibility for some low clouds to return 
tonight...as models are indicating a very weak impulse rotating 
around low to the southeast. This could bring some broken VFR/MVFR ceilings 
to areas Madison and eastward. Models are a split some...with the NAM a 
little drier and further east with llrh. Will stay on the optimistic 
side for now and keep things VFR...keeping an eye on upstream 
observations this evening. Regardless...expect clearing skies then 
late Monday morning and into the afternoon as high pressure slowly 
builds in from the west. 


&& 


Marine...winds currently still gusting to 25 knots or so across the 
near shore waters. Given that the Small Craft Advisory was set to 
expire this afternoon for lingering waves...and the winds have not 
settled down yet...will be extending the advisory through the 
evening. Winds should being to ease a little late this afternoon and 
into the evening...with waves subsiding some by early tonight. 




&& 


Mkx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WI...none. 
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 1 am CDT Monday for lmz643>646. 


&& 


$$ 


Short/long term...20 
aviation/marine...07