989 
fxus64 kcrp 202000 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
300 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...cold front is now 
completely through the County warning forecast area...with strong northwest flow ushering 
cool dry air into the region. Low clouds have been slow to clear 
out...but satellite imagery shows erosion and thinning across the 
coastal Bend...and expect that to continue through the evening. 


Winds still significantly elevated...so will continue the Wind 
Advisory until expiration at 21/02z. Also seeing dewpoints fall 
rapidly out west...so the red flag warning should verify 
easily...and will also continue through 02z. 


A cool night is in store for tonight as skies clear and cold air 
advection continues. Models now keep up winds a bit more overnight 
than on previous runs...and that combined with wet ground should 
keep overnight lows a few degrees higher than previous forecasts. 
Still...most areas should drop down into the 30s on the first 
night of Spring. 


Fire Weather Watch continues in effect for the entire County warning forecast area for 
Sunday. The only mitigating factor might be the duration of wind 
speeds above criteria...but otherwise very dry conditions will 
lead to an elevated fire danger. 


Temperatures will drop once again Sunday night with the same cold 
air in place and less wind. 


On the water...Gale Warning will continue offshore with small 
craft advisories everywhere else. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to 
persist at least through the day on Sunday. 


&& 


Long term (monday through saturday)...at the start of the period 
the deep closed middle/upper level low will be exiting the region and a 
dry subsident airmass will fill in across south Texas in its wake. 
The ridge flatens out Tuesday as the next trough aproaches from the 
Desert Southwest allowing low level moisture to return to the area. 
Clouds thicken up Tuesday night and Wednesday as this trough begins to move 
across the state. The combination of increasing instability and 
forcing from a leading short wave will result in isolated-scattered showers over the 
northeast three-quarters of the forecast area Wednesday. The main short wave and 
associated Pacific front will move across the state Thursday. 
However the amount of forcing remains in question as the European model (ecmwf) 
brings the dynamics farther south across our forecast area than the 
GFS. For now will grade probability of precipitation from 20% out west to 40% over the 
northeast coastal Bend. The European model (ecmwf) takes the front well into the Gulf 
of Mexico Thursday ngt/Fri...while the GFS stalls it near the Texas coast. 
For this package trended closer to the GFS as the European model (ecmwf) looked 
overdone. But will have to see how models handle this in future 
runs. Temperatures will moderate back to near seasonable levels for 
the remainder of the week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 39 68 39 74 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Victoria 35 63 34 72 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Laredo 40 73 44 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alice 39 69 37 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Rockport 42 65 42 70 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Cotulla 33 71 35 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Kingsville 39 69 37 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Navy corpus 44 65 46 70 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...red flag warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: Duval...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen... 
Webb. 


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening 
for the following zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval... 
Goliad...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak... 
McMullen...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria... 
Webb. 


Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following 
zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim 
Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces... 
Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...Webb. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 am to 7 PM CDT Sunday for the 
following zones: waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm. 


Gale Warning until 5 am CDT Sunday for the following zones: 
waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 nm... 
waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 
to 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory until 5 am CDT Sunday for the following 
zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas... 
bays and waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor. 


Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following 
zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 
20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
Channel out 20 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Jv/71...short term 
jm/75...long term