913 
fxus64 kcrp 141128 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
628 am CDT sun Mar 14 2010 


Discussion...updated for 12z aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conds through the taf period. High cirrus will be 
streaming through S Texas today and tonight. Southeast winds will gust between 
15-25 kts this afternoon across the region. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 418 am CDT sun Mar 14 2010/ 


Short term (today through monday)...high clouds will stream 
across south Texas today and tonight in advance of an upper level 
low digging from The Four Corners into West Texas. Southeast flow 
will resume today...then back east Monday and strengthen. 850 mb-700 mb 
moisture will increase up the Rio Grande plains on Monday... 
resulting in mostly cloudy conditions developing in the afternoon 
across the far western County Warning Area and possibly patchy sprinkles or light 
rain. 


Long term (monday night through saturday)...the GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS 
forecast an upper disturbance to move across the County warning forecast area/msa Monday 
night/early Tuesday. Anticipate isolated/scattered convection in response. 
Showers are more likely than thunderstorms based on GFS soundings. 
Expect activity to end by Tuesday afternoon as the system moves 
east/dissipates and subsidence develops. The foregoing models forecast a 
disturbance/cold air to move southward along the Mississippi Valley. 
As a result...quasi-steady north wind anticipated for the Tuesday 
afternoon/Wednesday period. The European model (ecmwf)/GFS forecast another upper system to 
move across/just north of the County warning forecast area/msa late Friday/Saturday. 
Increasing onshore flow expected Thursday in advance of this system. 
Anticipate isolated convection Friday/early Saturday in response to 
this system. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 77 58 76 56 69 / 0 0 10 40 20 
Victoria 79 52 75 52 68 / 0 0 10 30 20 
Laredo 85 61 80 57 69 / 0 0 10 50 20 
Alice 81 55 79 56 71 / 0 0 10 40 20 
Rockport 76 59 74 57 66 / 0 0 10 30 20 
Cotulla 84 54 77 53 69 / 0 0 10 50 20 
Kingsville 82 58 80 57 71 / 0 0 10 40 20 
Navy corpus 76 61 73 58 67 / 0 0 10 30 20 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Jr/76...short term/aviation