275 
fxus64 klub 210004 
afdlub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
704 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Aviation... 
strong upper low edging east through North Texas with enough gradient 
on back side to maintain modest breezes through the night...though 
winds will back off from the stronger gusts during the day. Skies 
also will tend to clear...but may see a period of middle clouds to 
the southwest of klbb later this evening as all solutions indicate 
lift moving through. Breezes will increase with mixing again on 
Sunday. Rmcqueen 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Short term... 
quieter weather in store for the region tonight and Sunday. The storm 
system that brought the widespread 1-3 inch snowfall to the County Warning Area was 
now shifting east into North Texas. Some very light snow was 
persisting across the eastern most zones on the back side of the 
system as of 1930z...but it continues to diminish with little or no 
additional accumulations expected before it completely shuts off 
over the next couple hours. Coupled with the fact that temperatures 
have climbed to near the freezing mark and surface winds will be on the 
decrease...think any additional winter weather impacts will be 
rather minimal at best and have let the remainder of the Winter 
Weather Advisory expire at 20z. 


Skies will clear tonight and winds will drop off considerably as the 
upper level storm shifts steadily eastward...to the arklatex region 
by 12z sun and west-central MS by 00z Monday. It will be another 
chilly night tonight with lows in the lower and middle 20s common. 
Plenty of sun will return to the region for your Sunday...and 
temperatures will rebound...though still remaining some 10 to 15 
degrees below climatology...thanks to surface ridging and northwesterly winds 
persisting. Did undercut MOS guidance across the northeast zones 
where a little insolation may go to melt any leftover snow. Even 
though the upper level system is pulling away...it will continue to 
strengthen...which will keep the lower and middle-level height 
gradient rather tight. This means that breezy northwesterly winds 
will develop by late morning and persist through the afternoon 
/especially central and east/ as we mix into 25-35 knots 850mb winds. 


Long term... 
a return to Spring-like weather is expected for the beginning of 
the work week as a ridge of high pressure will build back into the 
southern rockies/plains on Sunday. Mostly sunny conditions and a 
return to a prevailing southerly flow will help bump daytime highs 
back up into the lower 70s in most areas on Monday...and potentially 
the middle to upper 70s by Tuesday. 


However...a change in the pattern is expected to occur during the 
middle of the week as another storm system is expected to approach 
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday...giving the area another 
shot of precipitation. Have trended probability of precipitation down slightly Tuesday night 
to account for latest model guidance which suggests a bulk of the 
precipitation impacting the area Wednesday afternoon through 
Thursday morning. Models are showing that showers will begin to work 
their way into the South Plains region on Wednesday...with the 
southern Panhandle and northern South Plains being the favored 
areas for the higher precipitation amounts at this time. Behind the frontal 
passage...colder air will begin to work its way into the area 
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If enough cold air is in 
place...rain could transition to a rain/snow mix and perhaps 
briefly transition to all snow late Wednesday night across higher 
elevations on The Caprock...particularly in the far northwestern 
zones. This thinking is supported by model sounding data at Clovis 
nm...which supports a change over to snow after 06z on Thursday. 
By late Thursday morning...precipitation should begin to taper 
off as the system shifts east. As mentioned earlier...there is 
still quite a bit of uncertainty with the exact track and 
evolution of this system. Thus...will continue to watch latest 
model runs and trends and adjust as necessary. 


By Friday...Spring-like weather will return again to the South 
Plains region as mostly sunny conditions and daytime highs in the 
upper 60s to lower 70s are expected. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 21 56 29 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Tulia 23 54 30 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Plainview 22 52 31 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Levelland 24 56 30 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lubbock 24 55 32 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Denver City 24 60 30 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Brownfield 25 58 32 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Childress 25 52 32 71 41 / 10 0 0 0 0 
spur 26 57 34 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Aspermont 26 57 34 71 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


99/99/05