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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1244 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Discussion... 
see aviation section below for 18z tafs. 


&& 


Aviation... 
ceilings 3 thousand broken occasional 3 thousand scattered ceilings near 10 thousand broken will 
continue through 00z. Isolated showers are possible along and 
NE of a kbmq to k3t5 line this afternoon. 5 thousand scattered with 
scattered clouds above 10 thousand feet is expected to develop 
tonight becoming mostly clear Sunday...with a few clouds 
around 5 thousand to 9 thousand scattered along and NE of a kbmq to 
k3t5 line. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots will diminish to 
around 15 knots by 01z and to 5 to 10 knots tonight. 
Northwest winds will increase again Sunday...as surface winds mix with 
stronger winds aloft...becoming northwest at 15 to 25 knots with 
higher gusts. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 711 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Aviation... 
the main story will be winds from 290-340 degrees at 25g35kt for all 
taf sites today...and to a lesser extent repeated on Sunday. 
Expect thunderstorms and rain to end by 14 UTC at the I-35 sites and all precipitation to 
end by 15-16 UTC. Ceilings should improve to MVFR by midday. 


Previous discussion... /issued 349 am CDT Sat Mar 20 2010/ 


Discussion... 
strong convection skirting the northwestern County Warning Area along the leading edge of 
the cold front this morning. Expect the convection to rapidly 
progress eastward across the County Warning Area this morning with some locally 
heavy rainfall east of i35 before noon. Although not expecting any 
severe...a few storms along the leading edge will be strong with 
possible wind gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour...along with some small hail. 
Convection to end from the west late morning/afternoon with a few 
wrap-around showers across the eastern counties into the late 
afternoon. Have already posted a Wind Advisory for gusty north 
winds behind the front for today...and winds will stay up tonight 
and help keep temperatures up through mixing. However cold air advection 
will still result in lows around freezing in parts of The Hill 
Country and have already posted a freeze warning for The Hill 
Country tonight. 


With the deep upper low over the la/Arkansas on Sunday....will continue 
to have a strong northwesterly flow aloft across Texas...which will also keep 
dry surface winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour across the area. By Sunday 
evening however...winds will quickly diminish and more widespread 
freezing temperatures are likely as the cold dry surface ridge 
sits over S Texas. By Monday the surface ridge slides east and return 
flow resumes by the afternoon with warmer temperatures as a the 
short wave ridge pushes in from the west. 


Gulf moisture returns late Tuesday into Wednesday with rain chances 
increasing as a series of disturbances lift out of NE Mexico and 
across S Texas Wednesday and Thursday. The main upper trough pushes east of the 
area late Thursday/Friday with a Pacific cold front bringing drier air to 
the region Thursday night/Fri. 


Fire weather... 
combination of wetting rains and cold air advection should keep 
fire weather conditions below critical levels...but will mention 
near elevated across the southwestern counties where wetting rains will 
be minimal. Sunday is still looking very dry with northwesterly winds 
increasing again and therefore will issue a Fire Weather Watch for 
all of the area. By Monday winds will be much light although 
humidities will again be quite low into the teens and 20s. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 45 34 62 35 74 / 80 - 0 0 0 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 48 33 62 29 72 / 80 - 0 0 0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 34 65 31 76 / 80 0 0 0 0 
Burnet Muni Airport 40 33 59 31 72 / 70 - 0 0 0 
del Rio International Airport 46 34 69 34 78 / 20 0 0 0 0 
Georgetown Muni Airport 42 34 59 30 71 / 80 - 0 0 0 
Hondo Muni Airport 51 34 67 31 78 / 60 0 0 0 0 
San Marcos Muni Airport 50 34 64 32 74 / 80 0 0 0 0 
La Grange - Fayette regional 59 35 60 33 70 / 80 10 0 0 0 
San Antonio International Airport 50 34 66 32 77 / 70 0 0 0 0 
Stinson Muni Airport 52 35 67 33 77 / 70 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for 
the following counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar... 
blanco...Burnet...Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards... 
Fayette...frio...Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes... 
Kendall...Kerr...Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick... 
Medina...real...Travis...Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson... 
Zavala. 


Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following 
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...blanco...Burnet... 
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...frio... 
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr... 
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...real...Travis... 
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala. 


Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am CDT Sunday for the following 
counties: Bandera...blanco...Burnet...Edwards...Gillespie... 
Kendall...Kerr...Llano...real...Val Verde. 


&& 


$$ 


17/08/01/26