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afdama 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
342 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Discussion... 
current winter weather system has mostly left the region with the 
exception of some lingering very light snow showers across the far 
southeastern Texas Panhandle. Therefore...the Winter Storm Warning 
has been cancelled across the Ama County Warning Area. The center of the upper level 
low has moved southeast of the Panhandle region and is only now 
starting to intensify and develop into a cutoff low. As this low 
continues to move east...the pressure gradient at the surface...and 
height gradient in the lower to middle levels...should decrease. As a 
result...expect decreasing winds through the evening. 


Upper level shortwave ridge is still expected to bring a quick warmup 
to the region tomorrow through Tuesday. Since much of the region did 
not get as much snow as previously expected...and since the snow is 
melting quickly across the western and northern 
panhandles...increased the temperatures for tomorrow from previous 
forecast...going close to the mav guidance for all but the 
southeastern Texas Panhandle. By Monday...a dry surface trough will 
develop. As a result...expect breezy southwesterly winds to develop 
Monday into early Tuesday. Only enhancing the warming trend. 


The next surface cold front and upper level low pressure system 
should affect the panhandles Tuesday night into Wednesday night. At 
this time...expect most precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday to 
be in the form of rain...since the polar jet remains over the 
northern tier...and the upper level trough is rather shallow. 
However...model soundings show there may be enough cold air in the 
low levels to support some snow Wednesday night if there is still 
precipitation ongoing. 


The GFS indicates that an upper level trough could dig along the Lee 
side of The Rockies leading to a Lee side surface low developing on 
Saturday. If this solution holds true...there may be some 
thunderstorms on Saturday across the region...especially if a dry 
line develops. However...the latest run of the European model (ecmwf) shows the upper 
level trough staying well north and east of the region. Considering 
the uncertainty...have kept the forecast dry through this period. 


Sjohnson 
&& 


Fire weather... 
the recent precipitation...colder weather...and lighter winds should 
keep fire weather conditions low to moderate on Sunday. By Monday 
breezy southwesterly winds...increasing temperatures leading to 
relative humidity values near 15 percent could create elevated fire 
weather concerns. Fire weather concerns should decrease for Tuesday 
through Saturday with lighter winds...and colder weather after Tuesday. 


Sjohnson 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Amarillo Texas 32 23 56 29 71 / 70 0 0 0 0 
Beaver OK 33 21 54 21 70 / 50 5 0 0 0 
Boise City OK 35 20 56 30 70 / 20 0 0 0 0 
Borger Texas 33 27 59 32 70 / 60 0 0 0 0 
Boys Ranch Texas 37 24 58 27 73 / 40 0 0 0 0 
canyon Texas 33 21 56 26 72 / 70 0 0 0 0 
Clarendon Texas 33 26 52 30 69 / 70 0 0 0 0 
Dalhart Texas 36 19 58 25 71 / 30 0 0 0 0 
Guymon OK 36 20 59 24 71 / 30 0 0 0 0 
Hereford Texas 34 22 56 27 72 / 50 0 0 0 0 
Lipscomb Texas 32 25 51 20 70 / 70 5 0 0 0 
Pampa Texas 31 25 53 31 68 / 70 0 0 0 0 
Shamrock Texas 32 26 47 25 68 / 80 5 0 0 0 
Wellington Texas 33 27 47 27 69 / 80 5 0 0 0 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


09/16