469 
fxus64 klub 211129 
afdlub 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
629 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Aviation... 
VFR with high pressure dominating the region through the forecast 
period as upper level storm in NE Texas continues to push east. Only 
concern will be the potential for gusty winds around mid-day... 
particularly at Childress. 26 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 513 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Short term... 
upper level ridging will continue to build into the region from the 
northwest over the next day or so as northerly flow continues. Low 
level ridging...particularly evident at 700 mb...will assist warming 
temperatures quickly. At the surface...a weak north-S ridge is evident 
across the rolling plains this morning with a surface low across eastern 
nm. Early morning winds have backed to more of a downslope regime 
and will veer northerly and become breezy...particularly over the 
rolling plains...before going light and variable overnight. 850 mb 
thermal ridge skirts the northeastern zones this afternoon and will 
bump highs a degree or so in that region compared to the remainder 
of the area. Skies should remain mostly clear through the period 
with some high cloudiness moving in from the west Monday morning. 
Surface relative humidity values appear to remain well below values supportive of 
fog and so will keep the weather grid clear at this time. 26 


Long term... 
concerns in the long term portion of the forecast continue to 
center on precipitation chances associated with a middle week storm 
system. 


Low amplitude anticyclonic flow will take shape over West Texas 
Monday promoting benign weather which will persist into Tuesday. 
However a pattern change will begin as early as Tuesday when a 
vigorous upper air trough amplifies over the inter mountain west/Great 
Basin and a baroclinic zone settles into the Southern Plains 
beneath increasingly southwesterly flow. Models appear is 
relatively good agreement in ejecting the mentioned upper air feature 
eastward over the southern rockies/plains Wednesday and Wednesday 
night. This supports slight chance probability of precipitation Tuesday night through 
Wednesday night...with the best chances for precipitation 
occurring Post frontal late Wednesday. Precipitation type remains 
a challenge attp...but prognosticated weak instability suggest an 
isolated mention of thunder is warranted Wednesday before cold air advection 
stabilizes the atmosphere...and eventually allows for sufficient 
cooling to support a transition toward snow over the Llano 
Estacado after Thursday 06z. However...current forecast profiles 
suggest that deep cooling of the column may be large out of phase 
with the best lift which will already be translating eastward toward 
western Oklahoma/North Texas. Thus only a slight chance of snow has 
been depicted and no hazards have been highlighted. 


Benign weather again appears in store for the later half of the 
work week. A fast moving shortwave trough is prognosticated to propagate 
southeastward over the central rockies/Southern Plains skirting 
the West Texas area Saturday. At this time impacts from this system appear 
to breezy Post frontal winds. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 55 27 70 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Tulia 53 28 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Plainview 53 28 70 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Levelland 56 29 72 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Lubbock 55 29 71 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Denver City 59 29 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Brownfield 58 30 72 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 10 
Childress 55 30 70 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 
spur 57 32 71 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Aspermont 56 33 71 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


99/99/26