003 
fxus64 kewx 200456 
afdewx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1156 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Discussion... 
see aviation for 06z taf discussion. 


&& 


Aviation... 
cold front should pull into drt and The Hill Country by around 
11z...then into the I-35 terminals from 13-15z. Ceilings continue to 
lower late tonight as light sprinkles stream northward. IFR 
conditions expected to precede the front toward daybreak with some 
patchy drizzle possible along the Escarpment. Rain and showers 
are likely once the front reaches the area...with most of the 
precipitation occurring behind the front. Timing of the front and storms 
should help minimize the strength of the thunderstorms as they 
roll with the front across the I-35 terminals late Saturday 
morning. Meanwhile...only a small period of low cloudiness is 
expected over drt...but a brief period of IFR or lower conditions 
may develop prior to frontal passage. Strong winds behind the front should 
not reach peak intensity until the early afternoon when the 
elongated middle-level upper low axis cuts across central Texas. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 915 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Update... 
National Weather Service radars show light showers were developing 
across south central Texas due to increasing lift ahead of upper 
low over western New Mexico. Have updated to include probability of precipitation for this 
evening across central and northeastern areas of south central 
Texas. Have removed mention of thunder across much of south 
central Texas during the overnight due to an impressive cap. A 
strong cold front was along an Abilene to Wink line with a dryline 
from Abilene to The Big Bend. These surface features will continue 
to move southeast overnight with the front eventually overtaking 
the dryline as it nears The Hill Country. Have adjusted sensible 
weather grids to reflect updated timing for overnight into 
Saturday. Otherwise, remainder of south central Texas forecast was 
on track. 


Previous discussion... /issued 245 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Discussion... 
the calendar will say its Spring tomorrow but the weather may 
say otherwise. Considerable changes are in the offing for south 
central Texas in the next 24 hours. A storm system will dig across 
New Mexico into northwest Texas tonight with an associated strong 
cold front pushing rapidly into central Texas overnight. The front 
will sweep into south central Texas towards dawn and move rapidly 
through the area by noon. With the intensification of the upper 
system and jet dynamics..expect convection to line the front 
(squall line) as its makes its move through south central Texas. 
Main threat will be from convective wind gusts along the line but 
the activity should remain below severe limits as instabilities 
will be limited. Behind the front..strong north to northwest winds 
of 25 to 35 miles per hour will be felt with gusts to near 40 miles per hour possible. 
This will likely prompt the issuance of a Wind Advisory overnight. 
Rains should end from the west early tomorrow evening as the 
strong Dry Ridge builds into the region. Winds should maintain 
advisory levels (25-35 mph) into the early evening hours and 
diminish to below threshold levels by midnight Sunday. Skies will 
be clearing late Saturday night/early Sunday morning with lows 
plummeting to near freezing over The Hill Country. Winds and wet 
grounds should keep readings from lowering to the freezing mark 
along and east of the Escarpment (i-35 corridor). Clearing late 
Saturday night becoming sunny and cool on Sunday. Another freeze 
is possible Sunday with a dry clear cp airmass and light winds. 
Again freezing temperatures will likely be limited to The Hill 
Country but the I-35 corridor may also get near freezing in spots. 
Southerly flow will return Monday as a warming trend ensues. 
Temperatures Monday will be near or slightly below seasonal norms. 
Warmer still Tuesday with increasing clouds on moisture return. By 
Wednesday and Thursday scattered showers and a few storms are 
possible as weak disturbances traverse the region. Another upper 
low will stay north of our region moving across the Panhandle into 
Oklahoma on Thursday with a weak front entering the area late 
Thursday and Friday. 


Fire weather...near critical fire weather conditions generally 
west of a Mountain Home..Dilley line Sunday afternoon with 
northwest winds of 15-20 miles per hour and humidities lowering into the 
teens to near 20 percent range. Elevated conditions elsewhere. 
Humidities will again lower into the teens to near 20 over 
much of the region Monday afternoon but winds will be light. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 51 54 37 63 37 / 40 80 - 0 0 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 54 54 34 63 32 / 40 80 - 0 0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 55 56 33 65 33 / 40 80 - 0 0 
Burnet Muni Airport 45 52 32 60 35 / 60 80 - 0 0 
del Rio International Airport 51 61 38 70 36 / 30 20 0 0 0 
Georgetown Muni Airport 47 52 35 60 36 / 50 80 - 0 0 
Hondo Muni Airport 50 55 31 67 28 / 50 40 0 0 0 
San Marcos Muni Airport 54 55 36 64 34 / 40 80 - 0 0 
La Grange - Fayette regional 54 56 37 60 36 / 30 90 - 0 0 
San Antonio International Airport 54 56 36 66 33 / 40 70 0 0 0 
Stinson Muni Airport 56 58 37 67 32 / 40 70 0 0 0 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


04/18