730 
fxus64 kcrp 211125 aaa 
afdcrp 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
625 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Discussion...updated to for 12z aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions prevail areawide today. Early data from 
kcrp sounding indicates 35 to 40 knot northwesterly winds at about 
2000ft. Therefore have kept low level wind shear in forecast with the exception of 
klrd. Winds will mix down after about 16z and surface winds 
increase and become gusty. Winds relax by 02z Monday as high 
pressure settles into the region. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 426 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Short term (today through monday)...only minor changes to the ongoing 
forecast as surface high pressure builds in on the back side of 
the exiting storm system. An unseasonably cold start to 
the morning with lows in the middle 30s to middle 40s areawide. 
North/northwest winds will again increase today as elevated 925mb 
winds mix to the surface this afternoon. Winds again will be gusty 
today but will remain below advisory conditions. Afternoon 
temperatures will nicely rebound under sunny skies before 
dropping overnight into Sunday Monday morning. With less wind on 
tap for Monday morning and plenty of cold air in 
place...temperatures will again drop into the 30s and 40s. For 
Monday afternoon...winds will continue to relax and temperatures 
will continue a warming trend...especially out west. 


Long term (monday night through saturday)...a slow amplification to 
the synoptic flow is expected through Wednesday as two southern stream S/waves 
approach from the west. The net result will be the development of 
moderate return flow along with warmer temperatures. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) 
solutions forecast the initial shortwave moving from the Baja California region and then curve 
it well north of the County Warning Area on Wednesday. With a more northerly track of this 
initial shortwave...limited moisture depth and shallow isentropic 
lift...probability of precipitation will be kept in the slight chance category for Wednesday. Precipitation 
chances are expected to increase on Wednesday night and Thursday morning as the 
second strong shortwave trough axis and assctd cold fnt approach from the 
west. Instability will also increase to at least marginal levels due to 
the approaching middle level cold air. As a result...will include the 
mention of thunderstorms for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A drying 
trend and increasing subsidence will begin by Thursday afternoon as the fnt 
clears the County Warning Area and the trough axis swings through the County Warning Area. A weak ridge 
axis both aloft and at the surface will then build into the County Warning Area through 
the remainder of the week. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler behind 
this fnt given its Pacific origins. 


Marine...observations continue to show a slow downward trend in 
the winds across the offshore waters this morning. Therefore...the 
Gale Warning will be allowed to expire at 10z. However...strong 
offshore flow continues for all marine zones and will continue 
small craft advisories through at least this afternoon. Seas of 9 
to 11 feet offshore will also slowly subside today through tonight. 


Fire weather...will cancel the Fire Weather Watch for this 
afternoon as winds will be marginal and fuels have greened-up due 
to above normal rainfall and recent warm temperatures. 
However...relative humidity values will drop to critical levels 
this afternoon as surface temperatures rise and dewpoint continue 
to be extremely low. Have issued a Fire Danger Statement due to 
elevated fire weather conditions. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 68 39 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Victoria 63 34 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Laredo 73 44 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alice 69 38 76 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Rockport 65 43 69 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cotulla 71 35 78 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Kingsville 70 38 75 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Navy corpus 65 46 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the 
following zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port 
Aransas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to 
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters from Baffin Bay 
to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas 
to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the 
following zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port 
Aransas...bays and waterways from Port Aransas to Port 
O'Connor. 


&& 


$$ 


Rg/82...short term/aviation 
mb/80...long term