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fxus64 kohx 200212 aac 
afdohx 


Area forecast discussion...corrected for format 
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 
911 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Update... 
as of 910 PM...mainly scattered cirrus beginning to spread west to east across the 
middle state. Expect this trend to continue through the overnight hours. 
Made a slight adjustment to overnight lows...raising them by at 
least a degree across locations along and east of I-65 and by a 
few degrees west of I-65 due to this increased cloudiness per southwesterly 
flow development aloft. Otherwise...rest of forecast and below 
forecast reasoning in good shape. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 627 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Update...for 00z tafs. 


Aviation.../00z/ 


VFR conditions expected under high pressure at bna and csv through 
the next 24 hours. Skies will feature some thin cirrus 
tonight...then increasing clouds after 12z. Light south winds will 
increase around 8 knots by 15z as the surface high moves east. 


Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT Friday Mar 19 2010/ 


Short term...by 200 PM this afternoon, light southerly flow had 
managed to send temperatures soaring from early morning lows in 
the 30s, to readings in the middle and upper 60s. 


Expect near calm winds and clear skies tonight, which should 
allow late night temperatures to slip a few degrees below MOS values. 


Saturday looks like another award-winning day, with only an 
increase in some scattered to broken cirrus. Expect afternoon 
temperatures to top out mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 


Models continue a consistent trend of digging a closed low into the 
dfw area by 00z Sunday, then sweeping an occluded front northeastward 
out of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley late 
Saturday night. Expect elevated convection to push into southwestern 
middle Tennessee by sunrise Sunday, then push northeastward across 
our entire forecast area during the day. Southerly winds will pick up 
ahead of the band of convection, sustained at 15 to 20 miles per hour. It's a 
good thing the front comes in occluded, so that surface-based 
convection is eclipsed and the high helicity/Low Cape environment is 
not allowed to work its full magic. Nevertheless, believe some 
storms will still be strong, with gusty winds, heavy downpours and 
possibly hail. 


There may actually be some breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon, 
behind the rain band, especially in areas between the Cumberland 
Plateau and I-65. Thus, temperatures could easily push at least 
into the 60s over a large part of northern and eastern middle 
Tennessee, before the cooler air pushes in from the southwest 
Sunday night. 


Models still differ a little on the movement of the closed low 
across middle Tennessee on Monday. However, no matter how you 
slice it, expect damp and cool weather to prevail area-wide, with 
highs mainly in the 40s. During the afternoon and evening hours 
the upper low passes traverses the Cumberland Plateau, with surface 
temperatures likely falling a few degrees as light rain showers 
mix with possible snow showers. Wouldn't be surprised if some 
grassy areas at the highest elevations turn white. However, ground 
temperatures should be warm enough to prevent anything more than 
a light dusting. 


Long term...skies clear on Tuesday and we quickly get back into a 
mild weather pattern, with highs pushing into the 65 to 70 degree 
range by Wednesday. Next cold front drops into our area next Friday, 
bringing along another chance for showers and isolated thunder. 


&& 


Ohx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 
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