457 
fxus63 kabr 202002 
afdabr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota 
302 PM CDT Sat Mar 20 2010 


Short term...tonight through Monday night 
the models all show good agreement through the short term with the 
surface and upper level flow. Through Monday afternoon...the 
region will be dominated by westerly flow aloft with Pacific air 
coming across the region. The surface flow should be generally 
from the south to southwest through Monday. The models were all 
showing the 850 mb temperatures rising over the next few days. The 
deep layer relative humidity will also be low over the next few days with only 
some westerly jet stream cirrus moving over the region. Visible 
satellite still showing quite a bit of snow cover still across 
central South Dakota along with the Sisseton hills. This is not 
expected to have much affect on temperatures. The issue with the 
snow cover will be the additional water from it as it melts and 
the runoff for the high flowing/flooded streams...rivers...and 
lakes. Overall...increased highs for both Sunday and Monday across 
the County Warning Area. Should see middle 60s in central South Dakota by Monday. The models 
then show a cold front sweeping through the County Warning Area on Monday night. 
There could be some light rain/light snow with it and dont expect 
much to fall. Kept the probability of precipitation low at this point in the slight chance 
range. 




Long term...Tuesday through Friday 
Tuesday begins with a cold front and weak shortwave departing the 
region as cooler air moves in. Still perhaps a few lingering light 
rain showers behind this front so left in the 20 probability of precipitation from 
previous forecast. Surface high builds in behind this cold front. Weak 
upper ridging also occurs so the rest of the forecast after 
Tuesday appears dry at this time. Given the 850mb temperatures models are 
showing over the region...temperatures look to be near or even a 
bit above normal next week. 






&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected at all taf sites through the next 24 hours. 






&& 


Abr watches/warnings/advisories... 
South Dakota...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Short term...mohr 
long term...tmt 
aviation...tmt 


Weather.Gov/Aberdeen