034 
fxus62 kcae 220817 
afdcae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
317 am EST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Synopsis... 
cold...dry high pressure will build down into our region through 
Sunday. A front will bring a chance of showers Monday afternoon and 
Monday night...followed by cool but dry weather. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
WV shows middle/upper flow from the northwest across the area. At the 
surface...high pressure will dominate the weather today. Time 
section show airmass to remain dry through the day. Cold air advection will 
gradually weaken through the day. Guidance and local numbers 
indicate that 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday night/... 
tricky temperature forecast on tap for tonight. Models indicate 
that short wave currently over the northern plains will quickly move southeastward across 
the area overnight. WV/satellite shows cloudiness associated with 
system and time sections indicate some middle level cloudiness to 
move into the area late tonight. Except for approaching short wave...area 
would be under very good radiational conditions. Guidance temperatures in 
the low/middle 20s...local radiational equation in the upper teens/lower 
20s for cae/ags. Record lows for ton...20 at cae and 21 at ags. Will 
continue with current lows of lower 20s for most areas...although 
potential exist for temperatures to be slightly lower. Will also add 
headline for near record lows tonight. Otherwise...high pressure 
will dominate the weather tonight through Sunday. Models in good 
agreement that the cold front/associated moisture will approach on 
Monday and move across the area Monday night. Guidance and local 
numbers very close through the period and will stay close to 
consensus. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
continued cool and dry weather is expected through much of the 
extended periods. Models indicate that a deep closed low will 
develop and continue over the Great Lakes/New England states from 
Tuesday through Friday. This will produce a general northwest flow 
aloft...becoming more westerly by the end of the period. 


High pressure will be in control at the surface over much of the 
upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley and southeastern states through 
the extended. Temperatures should remain slightly below normal to 
near normal in the lower 60s. 


A digging trough in the western United States will push into the 
Southern Plains by Friday as a warm front develops to the east into 
the Tennessee Valley and southeastern states. This will bring a 
chance for precipitation to the area on Friday...as a warm advection 
pattern develops. There remains some uncertainty with the details 
among the medium range models concerning the timing and exact 
location of the front and best warm advection. Therefore will opt to 
keep minimal probability of precipitation...slight chance...for day 7. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
expect VFR sky and visibility conditions to continue through the taf 
period. Northwest winds 5 to 10 kts...then becoming variable 5 kts 
or less after 10z. 


Extended outlook...a cold front will move through the area Monday 
into Monday night...with possible showers and ceiling/visibility 
restrictions. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...77 
near term...77 
short term...77 
long term...77 
aviation...