628 
fxus61 kctp 150034 
afdctp 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA 
834 PM EDT sun Mar 14 2010 


Synopsis... 
a strong low pressure system along the coast will dominate our 
weather through at least Monday. Winds and rains will diminish as 
the low slides slowly southeast of Cape Cod Sunday into early 
Monday. A ridge should build in providing a quiet period of 
weather through most of the coming week before another storm 
system approaches next weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/... 
the region remains under the deep moist easterly flow which is 
producing upslope enhanced clouds and areas of mist...drizzle and 
light rain. Radar shows some organized north-S bands of showers moving 
eastward across the state. One band was passing over Harrisburg 
around 130 PM. Another was along a line from near Altoona to 
Clearfield. Both bands are moving westward. 


The surface cyclone along the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia will slowly work its way to 
the northeast over the next 24 to 36 hours. Thus the deep moist 
easterly flow will persist beyond this forecast period. Easterly 
winds...low clouds and drizzle are the rule. Temperatures will 
mainly remain relatively steady in the 40s with some middle to upper 
30s reading in the northern tier counties. 


Higher elevations in the northwest will see snow or rain and snow 
showers. Above about 2kft an inch of snow is possible. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 PM Monday/... 
the upper level low still be over the region with the low an 
surface low south of Long Island. This will weaken the easterly 
flow over the region. The weaker flow may allow the sun to break 
through the clouds in eastern areas toward evening. 


Overall...the deep easterly flow...though weaker...should keep the 
region in clouds with areas of light rain/rain showers. In the northwest 
there could be some rain/snow showers. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Sunday/... 
upper low will be pulling away east of the region by Tuesday...but 
last lingering band of weak instability slips across PA Monday 
night. Kept slight chance mention of light rain/drizzle across the 
south with mention of light snow poss in higher elevations. 


On Tuesday...ridge builds in and skies begin to clear out as light northwest 
flow from Canada brings cool and dry air to the region. There will 
be an upper low located over the southeast U.S. But the ridge axis over 
US will keep that feature to our south. This run of dry weather 
will last until the weekend...with temperatures initially near normal 
which will gradually rise by late week as heights build with 
amplifying ridge axis. Highs late week will be mainly in the 50s 
with lows in the 30s. 


Next chance for precipitation looks to be next Sat night through sun as 
potentially potent trough approaches from the west. Models coming 
together on timing but system beginning to look more like it will 
be lifting NE as it slides through...or may even slip by to our 
west keeping US on the warmer side. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/... 
stationary low pressure off of the middle Atlantic coast will 
continue to produce scattered -shra over central PA tonight and Monday. 
Northerly flow upsloping the Allegheny Mountains should result in the 
lowest /IFR/ ceilings at kjst and kbfd overnight...while ceilings mostly 
between 1-2kft expected elsewhere. Model temperatures become cold enough for 
occasional -shra to change to -shsn at kbfd and kjst Monday morning. 


Diurnal heating/mixing should cause ceilings to rise a bit by midday 
on Monday. However...ceilings blw 1kft likely to persist at kjst 
throughout the day. 


Outlook... 
Tuesday...IFR ceilings poss early at kjst. Otherwise...VFR. 
Wed-Fri...no sig weather expected. 


&& 




Ctp watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...devoir 
near term...grumm 
short term...grumm 
long term...rxr 
aviation...Fitzgerald