263 
fxus61 kbgm 220738 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
238 am EST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Synopsis... 
winter-like conditions will continue through the weekend...with 
temperatures well below normal for late November. Lake-effect 
snows will affect portions of central New York and the northern 
tier of Pennsylvania into Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
as of 935 PM EDT... 
lake effect continues over upstate New York tonight. Band that has been 
plaguing Oneida County is finally shifting south and not a moment to 
soon. Had unconfirmed report of 4 inches in Camden in 2 hours 
earlier this evening...although would have expected most intense snow to 
be over Syracuse. In general have seen a solid 2-4 inches over 
portions of Oneida County which remains under advisory criteria. Area 
of concern is just downwind of Oneida Lake which seems to have been 
enhancing snowfall for a time tonight. The precipitation has now shifted 
into Madison County for the most part...pretty much as expected. 


BUFKIT profiles indicate locations in Cayuga/Onondaga/Madison 
counties closest to the thruway will be under the gun tonight. 
Flow aligns from 310-320 with extreme instability indicated 
according to NAM BUFKIT. Expect an addn/l 3-6 inches overnight across 
northern sections of these counties with total snow acc/S of 5-10 inches. Most 
intense band this evening was dropping 1 in/hour amnts across syr area 
and see no reason why this will not re-organize tonight. Will be 
dangerous driving conds along the New York thruway through morning. Further 
south...expect an addn/l 1-3 inches across northern Cortland/Chenango 
counties and 1 to possibly 2 inches over northern sections of the southern tier. 


Dewpoints across southern sections of the forecast area have dropped into the single digits. 
Have kept temperatures up along Lake Shore counties/Finger Lakes where cloud cover 
will keep them from dropping too much. However...did lower them across 
parts of the southern tier where a few locales may appch 10 degrees by 
morning. 


Updated grids and text products have been sent. 


Previous discussion... 
snow showers and squalls dot the area late this afternoon...owing 
to the passage of an upper-level trough. During the 
evening...we're still expecting a lake snow band to organize near 
the South Shore of Lake Ontario...extending into 
Cayuga...Onondaga...and Madison counties. Later tonight...squalls 
should drift down into northern portions of the Susquehanna region 
(cortland/Chenango/otsego)...as the low-level flow veers a bit 
towards 310-320. Most of the accumulating snow overnight is still 
expected to occur near and somewhat south of the thruway 
corridor...impacting the Syracuse metropolitan area this evening. 


It now appears that the flow will have too much of a northerly 
component to significantly affect Oneida County in the near 
term...thus we've dropped the advisory for now. 
Otherwise...current configuration of warnings/advisories will stay 
in tact. 


Further south...a few squalls should also make it into the twin 
tiers...so we've mentioned localized accumulations of an inch or 
two down to Elmira...Owego...and Binghamton. Mainly just flurries 
are anticipated down to the Wyoming/Lackawanna valleys and the Poconos. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through Monday night/... 
somewhat of a tough call on lake-effect potential this 
period...with the flow now looking to be somewhat transitional in 
nature. During the day Saturday...a general 310-320 vector should 
continue to steer snow showers and squalls across at least 
portions of the warning area...although they may become a little 
more disorganized by afternoon with terrestrial instability 
increasing. 


Saturday night and Sunday morning...the flow is prognosticated by all 
short-range guidance to back with time...indicating that lake snow 
bands should begin migrating northward. Low-level Omega and 
convergence data from the nam12 and superensemble models don't 
show lake snows completely clearing Onondaga and Madison until 
after daybreak Sunday. By this time...weekend storm totals could 
approach a foot in parts of this area. Oneida County is 
tricky...as lake snows should become established for at least a 
time...but exactly how long is unclear. If any flags are needed 
for Oneida...they will be issued by later shifts...which will have 
the benefit of additional guidance to peruse and time to see how 
things evolve. 


For the twin tiers...Scranton/Wilkes-Barre...and the 
Poconos...after snow showers and isolated squalls on 
Saturday....Sunday should see a return to some sunshine and 
slightly milder temperatures. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
updated as of 235 am...hi amplitude noam blocking starts setting 
up through the period...and exactly where the ridges and troughs 
become established is anyone/S guess. Most model suites/ensembles 
do seem to suggest that the northeast will be troffy and 
unsettled...and I/ll play the favorable long term odds that will 
be the case. 


Based on the latest guidance from HPC and the global models...we 
had to make a couple adjustments to the medium range forecast tonight... 
especially for the closer day 4. With both GFS/European model (ecmwf) suggesting 
deep low pressure cutting off in the vicinity...we bumped probability of precipitation up 
to likely on Tuesday...as something should be falling from the sky. 
Believe it will be snow showers for the most part...but some 
guidance suggests lower elevations nudge closer to 40...for a chance 
at rain on Tuesday. 


Snow showers beneath the closed...and filling upper low appear as 
though they will be scattered about cny/nepa Wednesday into Thursday 
before flow takes on a more northwesterly component with the possibility at 
a return to lake effect bands for late next week and the weekend. 
Bottom line is that much is up in the air during this period so 
stay tuned during this upcoming Holiday week. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
lake effect snow machine continues to function on northwesterly 310-320 
flow...although it is not looking quite as intensely impressive as 
thought for this time of night. Still...the snow bands are 
producing IFR restrictions at ksyr-kith-kbgm...mainly in the visibility 
category with ceilings prevailing MVFR with scattered-broken IFR fluctuations. 
We see essentially no change in conditions through 12z...and 
probably a few hours beyond that too. A little surface warming later 
this morning will tend to disrupt the intensity of snow showers 
through the afternoon...so hoping for some improvement to MVFR 
visibility and VFR ceilings. For the fringe terminals...kelm may experience 
brief MVFR snow showers with a passing flurry possible at kavp 
remaining VFR. Krme will be a close call given the west-east fluctuation 
of snow bands...but we are confident enough in prevailing les 
steering flow to remain northwesterly...that we have forecast them to remain 
VFR through the period. For terminal Ops...plowable snow expected 
at ksyr with dusting accums mainly for kith-kbgm and essentially 
nothing elsewhere. 


Winds will remain light under 10 kts overnight...then become 
mainly northwesterly 10g20 kts for this afternoon. 


Outlook... 


Saturday night into Sunday...occasional MVFR/IFR expected 
primarily at ksyr/krme/kith...as a prolonged lake-effect snow 
event continues over the region. 


Later Sunday into Monday...improvement back to VFR foreseen. 


Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR restrictions develop 
again...as rain or snow could impact the terminals. 


Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR continues with snow. Some 
uncertainty. Elm and avp could be VFR depending on where the snow 
sets up. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...Lake effect Snow Advisory until 10 am EST Sunday for nyz016- 
044-045. 
Lake effect snow warning until 10 am EST Sunday for nyz017-018- 
036. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mlj 
near term...pvn 
short term...mlj 
long term...jab 
aviation...jab 

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