617 
fxus64 ktsa 220916 
afdtsa 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
316 am CST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Discussion... 
models remain fairly close in the short term but early next 
week become divergent and by the later parts of next week have 
very differing solutions. 


An upper level system moving east well north of the forecast 
area will produce some middle level clouds over northern portions 
of the region this morning but will push off to the east by 
middle day resulting in a mostly sunny but cool Day. Point soundings 
indicate that like yesterday...highs will be lower than guidance 
values. 


Slightly warmer conditions are expected on Sunday as southerly 
winds start to bring some moisture back to forecast area with 
which will mainly result in increasing cloud cover during the 
day Sunday. Light rain remains a possibility on Sunday night 
but moisture will be limited and only patchy light rain or a 
few showers are expected with the better chances of measurable 
rain over the eastern half of the forecast area. 


This system will exit the area Monday morning with weak surface 
high pressure and ridging aloft keeping the area dry 
Tuesday and Wednesday. 


Models become diverse after Wednesday. Have trended to 
towards the European model (ecmwf) with a trough over the western half of 
the country with embedded short waves rotating under the 
trough to provide periods of lift along with low level 
flow off Gulf providing sufficient moisture for a period of 
unsettled weather. However...uncertainty is high in the 
details during the extended portion with very high bust 
potential in all sensible weather facets for Thursday and 
Friday. 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1107 PM CST Friday Nov 21 2008/ 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue through the valid taf period. Middle 
level relative humidity forecasts...along with current Sat imagery...indicates that 
some middle level clouds may graze xna/fyv around sunrise...as middle 
level wave drops sewrd. Current area of few/scattered high clouds also 
associated with this. High clouds may increase around 00z across southeast 
OK /affecting mlc/...but dry low/middle levels will stall the nwrd 
spread of any low/middle ceilings associated with increasing srly flow 
tomorrow evening/night. Light southeast winds will become 
southerly around 15z and increase to about 10 kts at all sites. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tul 51 39 57 42 / 0 0 10 20 
fsm 51 35 54 46 / 0 0 20 70 
mlc 51 41 58 46 / 0 0 30 20 
bvo 50 34 56 38 / 0 0 10 20 
fyv 49 31 51 42 / 0 0 20 60 
byv 48 31 50 42 / 0 0 10 60 
mko 51 36 56 44 / 0 0 20 20 
Mio 51 34 54 40 / 0 0 10 20 
f10 52 39 58 44 / 0 0 20 20 
hhw 53 42 59 52 / 0 0 40 30 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...10 
long term....15