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fxus64 koun 211114 
afdoun 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
614 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010 


Aviation... 
clouds generally will continue to move away to the east... but there 
may be enough wraparound moisture to keep VFR ceilings around 4-6k feet 
in central OK into the afternoon. North-northwest surface winds will increase with 
mixing to at least 20-25kt sustained later this morning west/gusts at 
least 30-35kt. Early-morning profiler winds already 30-50kt in 
lowest km. Surface wind speeds should drop off very quickly around 
sunset. Air becomes extremely dry at all flight levels after 
00-06z... relative humidity at or below 15pct. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CDT sun Mar 21 2010/ 


Discussion... 
still a potential for heavier snow in southeast OK next 6-12 hours. Radar 
trends give some support to 06z NAM/RUC in wrapping more snow back 
SW-S into Atoka County area with 3-6" accumulations. Thus we will 
hang on to the warning for Atoka and surrounding counties for the 
time being. Advisory also will be kept for the time being in areas 
immediately to the west for lighter wraparound Snow. Advisory will 
be dropped for the rest of central/ncentral OK where any additional 
amounts will be negligible... although winds/blsn and subfreezing 
conditions will keep roads slick through this morning. 


Main forecast issue then involves the effects of residual snow cover 
on temperatures next couple days. Much of central/north OK received 3-7 inches 
with heavier totals in ncentral OK. Similar amounts still could fall 
in the far southeast later this morning. Snow cover will play a role in the 
highs today at least... and to a lesser extent Monday... but the 
turnaround back to springlike temperatures can be rapid this time of year 
and so effects of snow cover should be minimal at most by Tuesday. 


Models are reasonably similar middle-late week with another front 
getting into northwest OK by late Tuesday and moving slowly southeast through Wednesday. Surface 
low develops over Texas Wednesday night and moves NE as next upper system 
moves in. Canadian air will only make it as far S as the North Plains by 
Thursday... and then will migrate southeast into the northeastern Continental U.S. Toward 
the end of the week. It will be quite a bit cooler here behind the 
midweek system... but it still looks like an all-liquid precipitation event 
with the low-level air not as cold and the upper system weaker and 
likely to track farther north. Another system moves in toward next 
weekend with low chances of showers by next Saturday. Each of these 
systems will lead to cooler/drier air sweeping through the Gulf. 
That and the relatively quick succession of systems will inhibit the 
return of any decent low-level moisture into OK. Although 
thunderstorms will be possible around Wednesday and maybe again 
Saturday... severe weather potential appears minimal this far north. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 40 25 58 39 / 10 0 0 0 
Hobart OK 41 25 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 47 28 69 43 / 10 0 0 0 
gage OK 49 19 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 
Ponca City OK 37 19 49 39 / 20 10 0 0 
Durant OK 38 30 59 40 / 70 0 0 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for okz031- 
041-042-046-047-050>052. 


Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for okz032-043- 
048. 


Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


23/24/24