943 
fxus61 Kiln 180031 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
831 PM EDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


Synopsis... 
a ridge of high pressure will gradually move southeast across the 
region through the end of the week. A cold front will push through 
the area over the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... 
stratocumulus across the south is being stubborn to clear out this 
evening. Clearing will happen eventually as surface ridge builds in 
from the north overnight...but until then...updated the forecast 
to hang on to clouds across the far south for a few more hours. 
Made minor adjustments to temperatures...mainly to raise them slightly 
where clouds are hanging around. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... 
ridging at the surface and aloft will translate across the region 
through the period. This will keep a very dry air mass in place 
with few to no clouds. Opened up the diurnal range slightly by 
going slightly warmer than guidance highs and slightly lower than 
guidance lows. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... 
forecast focus will be on precipitation timing with weekend system. 
Conditions will start out dry on Saturday morning. Models begin to 
diverge after this point with the latest GFS and Gem trying to speed 
up the weekend system. European model (ecmwf) still has a slower solution with the 
precipitation. Have made adjustments to trend faster with the 
precipitation however did not completely jump on board with faster 
solutions until some run to run consistency develops. With trend 
towards faster solution have also ended precipitation a little 
quicker on Monday. 


Temperatures will warm up into the 60s on Saturday with southerly 
flow. Cooler air will filter in for Sunday and Monday as a cold 
front moves through the area. Went with a high temperature on 
Sunday earlier in the day with temperatures beginning to fall during 
the afternoon hours. With cold air advection Sunday night into Monday morning 
expect some light snow showers to mix in. Temperatures will begin 
to rebound for Tuesday into Wednesday as the area begins to see some 
sunshine associated with high pressure. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/... 
stratocumulus near and south of the Ohio River will continue to 
break up and push south over the next few hours...leaving just a 
few cirrus for the remainder of the taf period. Light northerly 
winds will become west or westnorthwest on Thursday as a weak 
ridge drops through from the north. 


Outlook...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday night 
through Monday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term...hawblitzel 
short term... 
long term...Novak 
aviation...hawblitzel