258 
fxus61 kbgm 220900 
afdbgm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
400 am EST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Synopsis... 
lake effect snows will continue today...mainly across upstate New 
York. This activity will gradually diminish by Sunday night. 
The next storm system will approach early next week with more 
precipitation. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
lake effect snow showers and squalls will continue today with 
flow slightly meandering around 300-310 degree. We've seen some Finger 
Lake enhancement also. Added tomkins County to the advisory area 
due to this...otherwise no changes to current headlines. Morning crew wil have 
to re-assess the advisory for Seneca and warning for Cayuga where 
criteria may be hard to reach. Expect some weakening in the 
activity this afternoon primarily due to diurnal influences. Profiles 
indicate the subsidence inversion will be lowering tonight...but this 
may be offset by well-aligned 290-300 flow after 06z. Potnl for 
some re- intensification late mainly across onon/Madison. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/... 
les band forecast to lift northward tmrw. No headlines at this time for Oneida but 
day crew will have to take a closer look...appears advisory 
criteria may be attainable as band moves northward on Sunday. Otherwise next storm 
system looking pretty interesting for early next week. Expect precipitation in 
the form of -sn to spread across the region Monday night. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
updated as of 235 am...hi amplitude noam blocking starts setting 
up through the period...and exactly where the ridges and troughs 
become established is anyone/S guess. Most model suites/ensembles 
do seem to suggest that the northeast will be troffy and 
unsettled...and I/ll play the favorable long term odds that will 
be the case. 


Based on the latest guidance from HPC and the global models...we 
had to make a couple adjustments to the medium range forecast tonight... 
especially for the closer day 4. With both GFS/European model (ecmwf) suggesting 
deep low pressure cutting off in the vicinity...we bumped probability of precipitation up 
to likely on Tuesday...as something should be falling from the sky. 
Believe it will be snow showers for the most part...but some 
guidance suggests lower elevations nudge closer to 40...for a chance 
at rain on Tuesday. 


Snow showers beneath the closed...and filling upper low appear as 
though they will be scattered about cny/nepa Wednesday into Thursday 
before flow takes on a more northwesterly component with the possibility at 
a return to lake effect bands for late next week and the weekend. 
Bottom line is that much is up in the air during this period so 
stay tuned during this upcoming Holiday week. 


&& 


Aviation /09z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
lake effect snow machine continues to function on northwesterly 310-320 
flow...although it is not looking quite as intensely impressive as 
thought for this time of night. Still...the snow bands are 
producing IFR restrictions at ksyr-kith-kbgm...mainly in the visibility 
category with ceilings prevailing MVFR with scattered-broken IFR fluctuations. 
We see essentially no change in conditions through 12z...and 
probably a few hours beyond that too. A little surface warming later 
this morning will tend to disrupt the intensity of snow showers 
through the afternoon...so hoping for some improvement to MVFR 
visibility and VFR ceilings. For the fringe terminals...kelm may experience 
brief MVFR snow showers with a passing flurry possible at kavp 
remaining VFR. Krme will be a close call given the west-east fluctuation 
of snow bands...but we are confident enough in prevailing les 
steering flow to remain northwesterly...that we have forecast them to remain 
VFR through the period. For terminal Ops...plowable snow expected 
at ksyr with dusting accums mainly for kith-kbgm and essentially 
nothing elsewhere. 


Winds will remain light under 10 kts overnight...then become 
mainly northwesterly 10g20 kts for this afternoon. 


Outlook... 


Saturday night into Sunday...occasional MVFR/IFR expected 
primarily at ksyr/krme/kith...as a prolonged lake-effect snow 
event continues over the region. 


Later Sunday into Monday...improvement back to VFR foreseen. 


Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR restrictions develop 
again...as rain or snow could impact the terminals. 


Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR continues with snow. Some 
uncertainty. Elm and avp could be VFR depending on where the snow 
sets up. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...Lake effect Snow Advisory until 10 am EST Sunday for nyz016- 
044-045. 
Lake effect snow warning until 10 am EST Sunday for nyz017-018- 
036. 
Lake effect Snow Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for 
nyz025. 


&& 


$$ 


Long term...jab 
aviation...jab