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fxus61 kaly 200200 
afdaly 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
1000 PM EDT Friday Mar 19 2010 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will bring one more unseasonably warm day to the 
region on Saturday. It will start out sunny but as a front 
approaches clouds will increase in the afternoon. The front will 
move into the region Sunday and bring unsettled weather...along 
with cooler temperatures...for the start of the new week. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
as of 1000 PM...some high clouds have halted the temperature fall in 
the immediate capital district. However...upstream...satellite pictures 
show a lot of clear sky and that should settle in for awhile 
overnight. Then...a SW to west breeze might begin prior to 
sunrise...mainly north and west of Albany. Overall...current look 
pretty good with perhaps a few minor adjustments needed. Look for 
overnight lows around 40 locally...35-40 outlying regions...with a 
few colder remote spots. 


No further changes to any of the later periods. 


***********Previous near term discussion******************* 






Another quiet night with nothing more than a few cirrus floating about. 
Even though the wind has not entirely decoupled...temperatures have 
dropped quite a bit at places like kalb...about 6 degrees in the 
past hour...as one would expect after sunset. 


The question is whether or not enough of a breeze will prevent a 
free fall of temperatures as we have seen the past several nights. There 
are some indications that might be the case...at least north of 
kalb. Also...dewpoints are a little higher than previous nights 
(only by a few degrees). It appears that the lowest readings 
overnight will be down to our south where the wind will become calm 
and clouds the fewest. More clouds and a bit breeze should keep 
temperatures well above freezing most spots to our north (except perhaps 
kgfl). We will monitor trends throughout the evening to see if any 
updates are needed to raise/lower temperatures. Will add some more 
gustiness to Saturday afternoon as a weak cold front will 
nevertheless increases the low level lapse rate and promote 
excellent mixing. According to BUFKIT off the 18z NAM...there is 
potential for wind gusts over 30 miles per hour in some areas on Saturday 
afternoon. Will not go that high...but will increase. 


No other changes at this time. 


*********Previous near term discussion******************** 


The first portion of the weekend...starting tonight...will be a 
continuation of the delightful weather we have been having the 
last few days...under the influence of a subtropical high centered 
over the Gulf Coast. 850 hpa temperatures for this air mass were mostly 
in the plus 4 to plus 6 range...with surface temperatures mostly 
in the lower 60s and dewpoints in the very pleasant 30 to 40 
degree range. A warm front extended from the surface low north 
of the Great Lakes eastward to northern New England...with a 
cold front trailing southwest to the Southern Plains. Aside from 
a few strands of cirrus...skies were cloud free over the area. 


Some clouds will move into the region tonight...which will some 
what impede radiational cooling...especially north and west which 
will have the most clouds. The met/MOS and mav/MOS for Poughkeepsie 
and Danbury were very close together for lows tonight...although the 
met was considerably warmer at Montgomery a few miles southwest. 
They were also in agreement at Glens Falls and Saranac Lake. 


Some of the metars this afternoon were showing gusty winds...with 
gusts over 20 miles per hour at Burlington and Glens Falls. The prevailing 
direction did not favor boosting the wind speeds at Albany where 
the winds were still less than 10 miles per hour early this afternoon. 


Winds are again expected to become near calm tonight and lows 
tonight will be quite mild...especially north...ranging from the 
upper 30s across the Adirondacks and southern Vermont to the low 
40s in the greater capital region. 


Saturday...clouds will gradually overspread the region...but 
otherwise a very pleasant day for that early season cookout. Will 
use a blend of the mav/met MOS for highs...which will range from the 
low 50s in the Adirondacks to around 70 in the lower Hudson and 
Housatonic River valleys. 


For winds...used the local WRF through midmorning Saturday...then 
to the mav/met MOS...with some minor tweaking. A little breezy 
during the day...especially over the higher terrain. 




&& 


Short term /Saturday night through Monday/... 
to start...a frontal system approaches the region Saturday...but 
it looks like it will stall just north of our area as the main 
storm in the lower Mississippi Valley begins to move north into 
the Ohio Valley. This system sets up a low level jet of warm 
and moist air from the deep south some of which turns west 
around the north of the surface low and some of which turns 
eastward. Increasing amounts of moisture are forecast to overrun 
it. We only have slight chances of precipitation except in our far 
western zones until early Sunday...and it will be cool enough 
in the Adirondacks that it would come as snow rather than rain. 
Lows Saturday night/Sunday morning will range from the upper 20s 
in the Adirondacks to around 40 in the lower Hudson and Housatonic 
valleys. 


The likelihood of precipitation on Sunday increases as one GOES north... 
with likely probability of precipitation across northern Hamilton and Herkimer counties 
Sunday afternoon and chance probability of precipitation elsewhere. It will be mild with 
highs near 60 south...and progressively colder as one GOES north 
with low 40s across the Adirondacks. Precipitation will be all rain 
during the day...but will begin to mix and change in the north 
Sunday evening as cooler air gets into the region...with lows 
Sunday night from around 30 in the Adirondacks to the low 40s 
from Albany south and east. Likely probability of precipitation migrate southward 
Sunday night but quantitative precipitation forecast amounts still look fairly light with 
most areas 0.25 inch or less. 


Monday looks to be cloudy...wet...and dreary with overcast 
skies...rain...and highs from the lower 40s north to the 
middle 50s south. We have high likely probability of precipitation...with precipitation 
amounts of 0.3 to 0.5 inch. 


Sunday night and early Monday look to be cool enough for snow 
to fall in the Adirondacks...with 2 to 5 inches across the 
region before it turns back to rain Monday morning. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
the long term portion of the forecast is now in pretty good 
agreement between the European and GFS models regarding the cutoff 
low which will still be impacting our weather into Tuesday...before 
slowly slipping to the east off the middle Atlantic coast by Wednesday. 
It might turn cold enough at the tail end for some wet snow to mix 
in across portion of the valley floors...while snow showers continue 
across the higher terrain. No accumulation of snow is expected 
except across mainly the Adirondacks. 


High pressure will build in briefly for Wednesday. Both the 12z GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) forecast h850 temperatures a couple of degrees above freezing. 
With fairly good mixing and some sunshine...temperatures will reach 
well back into the 50s in the valleys...40s higher terrain. 


Unlike this recent anticyclone...the one on Wednesday will be 
short-lived as a strong upper level trough to the north of the 
Canada/US border surges south...sending a true late season Arctic 
air mass our way by late Friday. It looks as if it will take two 
cold fronts to eventually Herald the chillier air. The first one 
might touch off some shower activity...late Wednesday night into Thursday. 
Have 30 probability of precipitation included for this time frame. The second cold front 
looks more moisture starved...but still could trigger a line of 
showers (perhaps a windex situation...something we need to watch as 
the time nears)...by Friday night. 


&& 


Aviation /21z Friday through Wednesday/... 
no aviation problems through Saturday morning with VFR conditions to 
prevail this taf cycle. 


Any clouds tonight will be of the high cirrus variety and will have no 
impact to any of the terminals. Any wind will become light or calm. 


A nice start to the day Saturday with a continuation of light wind 
and few (if any sensible clouds). 


A cold front will begin slipping southward across the 
terminals...reaching Glens Falls by midday and kalb/kpou during the 
afternoon. This front will likely produce nothing more than a scattered to 
broken deck of VFR cumulus. No more than a sprinkle is expected with its 
passage. While a significant wind shift is not expected...the wind 
will pick up by afternoon...become gusty out of the west or 
northwest to near 20kts...possibly gusting well into the 20s at 
kalb. 






Outlook... 
Sat nt...VFR. Ceiling. Schc MVFR -shra for kpou-kalb. 
Chance IFR -shra kgfl. 
Sun-Tue...MVFR/IFR.Cig...increased chance for -ra. 
Wednesday...VFR...no sig weather. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a partial recovery expected tonight with maximum relative humidity values ranging 
between 85-95 percent. A west-southwest breeze might linger in most 
places...averaging around 5 miles per hour in valley locations...closer to 10 
hilltops. 


Relative humidity values will drop down to 30-40 percent once more on 
Saturday...except 40-50 percent well north and west of Albany. A S 
or SW wind 5-15 miles per hour on Saturday morning...will turn to the northwest 
at similar speeds as a weak cold front crosses our region midday or 
afternoon. Occasional gusts could reach around 25 miles per hour. At this 
time...the passage of this front will initially be dry with only a 
few clouds expected. However...as the front stalls...and a strong 
disturbance forms well southwest of it...moisture will increase 
later Saturday tonight into Sunday. The threat of showers will 
increase with a "wetting" rain likely by Monday morning. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
the weather will continue dry with unseasonably warm days through 
Saturday. Diurnal snow melt will produce minor rises on streams in 
the Adirondacks...Catskills...southern Vermont...and other areas 
where it remains. There is still 5 to 10 inches of water in the 
snowpack over areas of the Adirondacks...Catskills...southern Green 
Mountains and Berkshires. 


A storm now in the Southern Plains will move into the Ohio 
Valley Sunday and across the middle Atlantic region Monday and 
Monday night. This storm has the potential to bring one to two 
inches of precipitation to the region over a 36 to 48 hour 
period...but some of it may come as snow north of the Mohawk 
Valley. Most of the precipitation is likely to come as rain... 
and this would cause area streams and river to begin rising 
again early next week. 


Please refer to the winter/Spring flood outlook /albesfaly/ 
for more details on the potential for Spring flooding. 


For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including 
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations... 
please visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service 
/ahps/ graphs on our website. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...hwjiv 

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