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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
158 PM PST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Synopsis...dry and mild conditions are expected through the weekend 
as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. A Pacific storm 
system is expected to move into California on Tuesday bringing 
the risk of valley Rain...Mountain snow...and cooler temperatures 
to northern and central Nevada by Wednesday of next week. 
&& 


Short term...tonight through Monday...quiet weather expected for 
this weekend as high pressure builds over the area Saturday night 
and Sunday. Models show another weak cold front pushing across 
northern Nevada on Saturday bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air and 
locally breezy conditions. No precipitation is expected with this system 
since the upper level trough and associated jet energy remain 
north of Nevada as the trough pushes east across the Pacific northwest and 
weakens. High temperatures expected to remain above normal and generally 
in the 50s...and maybe near 60 across the lower elevations of 
central Nevada. However...with dry air across the state and good 
radiational cooling expected...expect low temperatures to be seasonably 
cold and generally in the middle teens to low 20s. Would not be 
surprised if the normally colder higher valleys across northern Elko 
County/eastern White Pine County drop into the single digits early 
Saturday and Sunday morning. 


Ridge axis over the area Sunday is expected to shift east by 
Monday as an upper level trough digs south across the eastern Pacific 
Ocean..resulting in warmer southwesterly flow over the Great 
Basin. Increased high temperatures into the upper 50s (north) to middle 60s 
(cntrl) Monday afternoon. Lowered sky cover as well Sunday and 
Monday with strong subsidence aloft. 


Long term...Monday night through Friday. Extended models end up 
with similar solutions by day 8 but differ on how they get there a 
bit. Period will start out with moving onshore into central/Southern 
California and moving up into the Great Basin by 12z Wednesday. Expect 
precipitation to start out fairly isolated during the day Tuesday but 
increase in coverage Tuesday night as low lifts northeastward overnight. Does not 
look like a heavy precipitation event but possibly a tenth to a 
quarter inch of liquid across much of the County Warning Area. Snow levels will 
remain fairly high...around 7000-8000 feet during this time period. 
With clouds and precipitation spreading across area and not much real cold 
air with it...raised lows about 5 degrees for Tuesday night. 


Upper trough becomes fairly elongated across the western U.S. By 00z 
Thursday with Nevada right in the middle. Kept in some low probability of precipitation with just 
light showers expected during this period. Snow levels expected to 
drop about 1000 feet by 00z Thursday as cooler air slowly filters into 
the area. This initial trough will get kicked out Wednesday night/Thursday as a 
strong system approaches the Pacific northwest coast. Models show much 
wider range of solutions with the handling of this low and just how 
far west it ends up will make a big difference in precipitation for 
the County Warning Area. European model (ecmwf) brings most of the energy on back side of low down 
the California coast as system intensifies and ends up in northern Baja California by 
12z Sat. At the same time...the GFS slowly brings the low down the 
California coast and it ends up just south of ksfo by 12z Sat with southerly 
flow over Nevada tapping into decent moisture and spreading precipitation up to 
the I-80 corridor. Given the recent Superior performance of the 
European model (ecmwf) and the fact that the GFS has a lot of jet energy on west side 
of low around 12z Friday...similar to the European model (ecmwf) and it does not bring 
the low much further south does not seem very likely. Will go more 
with the European model (ecmwf) solution and keep some chance probability of precipitation far south but 
taper off to the north. Snow levels will be falling to around 5000 
feet as some colder air moves in with this second system. 
Temperatures during this period are expected to be near normal 
during the day but a little above normal at night due to plenty of 
clouds around for much of the time frame. 
&& 


Aviation...light winds and just some increase high clouds keeping 
VFR conditions going across northern and central Nevada is expected 
over the next 24 hours. 
&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


95/86/86