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fxus65 klkn 221047 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
247 am PST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Synopsis...dry and mild conditions are expected through Monday. A 
Pacific storm system is expected to bring unsettled weather to the 
Silver state for most of next week. && 


Short term...today through Monday...infrared satellite imagery shows 
some high clouds moving across northwest Nevada through a weak ridge 
pattern this morning. There is a shortwave passing well to the north 
over Washington/or at this time which is an aid to keeping pattern progressive. Short 
term models are in good agreement on latest issuance. 


Another weak shortwave will drop a little further south 
and brush lkn northern zones this afternoon. Should see some 
breezy conditions in zone 31 with dry cold frontal passage late in 
the day. Another cold night expected tonight...near-normal 
temperatures on Sunday...then very cold again Sunday night as 
ridge attempts to restructure and pattern suggests a little slower 
Pace. Ridge axis is expected to move eastward into Utah by Monday 
and only slight warming will occur as flow aloft turns 
southwest...and begins to moisten ahead of a strengthening low 
prognosticated to position near the Southern California coast by Monday 
afternoon. Cooled daytime temperatures about 5 degrees today 
through Monday and reduced overnight lows a few degrees as cold 
air gets embedded. Not many changes otherwise with no precipitation 
in the short term forecast. 


Long term...Monday night through Friday. Confidence in the 
extended forecast is very low at this point in time. Models are 
flip flopping with timing...strength...and residence time of the 
cutoff lows. 


The European model (ecmwf) had a cutoff retrograding off the California coast 
through the weekend. It now has a more progressive pattern with 
the low moving out by Saturday afternoon and high pressure 
building in just to the west of the County Warning Area. 


The GFS has several low pressure systems moving south into the 
region through the week...with the third one moving into the 
Silver state on Thursday. GFS then has this low sitting over the 
region through the weekend...where it was more progressive 
yesterday...having the low move out over the weekend. 


Given the discrepancies in models and models runs...have opted to 
make little change to the forecast...keeping slight chance to 
chance probability of precipitation over much of the Great Basin. The onset of precipitation on 
Tuesday afternoon looks to be mainly rain in the valleys and snow 
in the mountains. By Wednesday afternoon sufficient cold air 
should move in the County Warning Area to change most of the precipitation over to 
snow. Amounts...if any precipitation does occur...will be highly 
dependent on how the scenario plays out. Currently concerned about 
the passes due to Holiday travel as they will most likely see all 
snow if and when precipitation does occur. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours 
with partly cloudy skies. && 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


92/97/97