602 
fxus64 kepz 220910 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
210 am MST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the region 
through the weekend and into early next week. Light winds today 
will turn westerly Sunday warming temperatures back to slightly 
above normal. High clouds will periodically move across the desert 
skies but conditions will remain dry. Tuesday a fast moving 
disturbance will track over the area and provide slight rain 
chances. On Thanksgiving day a strong upper low will drop into 
the Desert Southwest. Increased moisture is expected to move into 
the area and give US a chance of lowland rain and High Mountain 
snow Wednesday night and Thursday. 


&& 


Discussion... 
an upper ridge will strengthen over the weekend and into early 
next week. This period will be quiet weather wise. Temperatures 
will warm today and Sunday back above normal levels as low level 
westerly flow returns. High clouds are expected to pass in and out 
of the area. 


Sunday night a weak cold front looks to push in from the NE. This 
will trim a few degrees off maximum temperatures Monday afternoon. Tuesday 
begins a change in the pattern as a West Coast upper low begins to 
move toward the region. The upper ridge will shift east and the 
first shortwave energy ahead of the main system moves across the 
County warning forecast area. Increased moisture is pulled up from the SW. The GFS 
increases clouds and is now more bullish on precipitation for the County warning forecast area Tuesday 
afternoon and evening. Slight rain chances have been added. 


The main system drops into the SW deserts late Wednesday. A deep 
moisture tap ahead of the system is aimed over our County warning forecast area. Dynamics 
suggest a real chance at precipitation for our County warning forecast area Wednesday night/Thursday as 
the system lifts across the area. Snow with this system looks 
reasonable above 7000 feet Wednesday night over the Gila and Thursday 
morning over the sacs. The system exits the area late Thursday as a 
short-lived ridge follows the trough. Upstream another deep upper 
level system looks to drop into the SW deserts coinciding with a 
strong backdoor cold front on Sunday. But that is beyond this 
7-day forecast package...and the models have been very unstable 
with solutions during this period. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 22/1200z-23/1200z... 
VFR conditions along with light and variable winds will prevail 
through the period. Ceilings above 20 kft. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
upper level ridging across the west...with surface high over the 
Great Plains...will result in dry conditions with light winds over 
the next several days. Temperatures will slowly warm up to near 
normal by Sunday. However...shallow mixing heights and light low 
level winds will result in poor transport winds across much of the 
region trough the weekend. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will 
result in some improvement early next week...as a rather unsettled 
pattern looks to set up for the southwest for the middle and latter 
parts of next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 64 38 71 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 61 33 69 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 63 34 70 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 62 33 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 53 29 58 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 61 32 69 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 60 32 64 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 63 32 70 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 64 33 70 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


14/bird