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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
243 PM MST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Discussion...relatively benign weather conditions will remain in 
place across the state into the early part of next week. Northwest 
flow remains in place through the weekend with gradually warming 
temperatures in the forecast. Little in the way of substantial 
cloud cover is expected this weekend...although we will see variable 
amounts of high cloudiness...in association with a weak disturbance 
off the Southern California coast...stream across the land of 
enchantment beginning late tonight and into the day on Sunday. 


Shortwave ridging amplifies over the state during the early part 
of next week ahead of a vigorous low pressure system forecast to 
move into the western states Tuesday night and Wednesday. Forecast 
models still expect this system...in some form or another...to trek 
across New Mexico on Thanksgiving day. Model consensus remains 
problematic...with variations in intensity...orientation...and 
eventual track still in place. 


With confidence low in the eventual forecast scenario in place for 
Thanksgiving day...it would not be prudent to make changes to the 
forecast at this time. This system and its eventual track merit 
close supervision however...given its potential to produce 
inclement weather across the state late next week. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions expected across northern and central New Mexico for 
the next 24 hours. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 10z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 


Dry and tranquil weather will continue into the early part of next 
week as a relatively weaker west northwest flow prevails aloft. 
Humidity recoveries will not be as high tonight with slightly warmer 
overnight low temperatures. A warming trend will also continue over 
the state on Saturday...especially in the east where temperatures 
will warm into the 60s and low 70s. Relative humidities will 
generally range from the middle teens to low 20s across the forecast 
area Saturday afternoon...and winds will predominantly be light from 
the south and west. Mixing heights will rise very slightly on 
Saturday...however light winds will keep much of the forecast area 
trapped in poor ventilation conditions. Ventilation will improve on 
Sunday as winds aloft strengthen slightly...and are aided with 
higher temperatures and mixing heights. A secondary ridge axis will 
build over nm on Monday allowing winds to decrease and poor 
ventilation to plague much of the area again. Forecast models are 
slowly converging on a solution regarding the approaching storm 
system during the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Isolated to 
scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers will likely develop 
over many portions of the state before a dry...and possibly 
brief...period of more tranquil weather moves in. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 27 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 17 60 17 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 18 60 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 28 68 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 12 54 16 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 21 58 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 14 50 14 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 15 57 17 57 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 23 58 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 26 58 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 26 62 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 31 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 30 62 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 30 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 31 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 27 64 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 28 59 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 30 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 33 59 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 19 61 21 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 25 62 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 30 59 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 30 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 32 67 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 29 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 27 66 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 29 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 28 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 27 68 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


03/52