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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
302 PM MDT Wednesday Mar 17 2010 


..significant snowfall again possible for the northern mountains 
and northeast Highlands/plains Friday through Saturday morning... 


Discussion... 
a ridge of high pressure over the SW United States will yield 
another dry day with above normal temperatures on Thursday. 
However...southwest winds will become breezy on the east central 
and NE plains Thursday afternoon thanks to a strengthening Lee 
trough. 


Precipitation chances will begin to increase again across 
the northwest Thursday night as a potent upper level trough dives 
toward nm out of the north and northwest. Models now agree on this 
trough crossing as an open wave Friday through Saturday with the 
best chance for accumulating precipitation mainly across northern 
areas Friday...then along and east of the Central Mountain chain 
Friday night into Saturday morning. A strong cold front is 
expected to dive southward into the state Friday and push south of 
our County Warning Area Friday night...with upslope flow reaching near 700 mb 
along and east of the sangres. This may spell several inches of 
snow for the sangres with near a foot along favored East Slope 
locations. Lighter accumulations will be possible in the San Juan 
Mountains...and a few to several inches of snow could accumulate in 
east central and northeast areas mainly Friday night into Saturday 
morning. Temperatures across the northeast plains should drop 
throughout the day on Friday with accumulating snow potentially 
beginning from Raton to Clayton as early as Friday afternoon. In 
addition to the precipitation and much colder temperatures that 
will linger through Saturday...strong winds will accompany the 
system as the jet stream passes over our southern tier of zones. 
The potential exists for west winds from 25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts 
to 50 miles per hour Friday afternoon from around Quemado to Ruidoso and 
Dunken. Another particularly windy region will be the eastern 
plains Friday afternoon and night as the pressure gradient 
tightens with the passing cold front. The brisk north winds may 
drop wind chills to near zero degrees across parts of the 
northeast Friday night. An Special Weather Statement remains in effect to highlight the 
potential dangers of this system. 


Dry weather is expected to return Saturday night through Monday as 
another ridge of high pressure crosses nm. Longer range models 
depict another weather system crossing the state Tuesday through 
the middle of next week. 


44 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours across most of 
the area. Models are hinting at some sort of moisture 
intrusion...thus the possibility of low clouds and/or br/fg...across 
the far southeast. I have not built that into the tcc or row 
terminal forecast but later shifts will need to monitor. Signature 
shows up within the models best between 11z to 14z. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
continued with very little change within the 
fire gridded forecast. Middle level dry slot that was over New Mexico 
today did provide a few lower humidity places but look for this 
dry slot to gradually lessen over the next 24 hours. 
Regardless...did lower humidity slightly tonight across the 
midslope areas and mountain areas on Thursday. 


The upper ridge will remain centered over the area tonight...thus 
the lighter wind flow observed today will remain into the overnight. 
High confidence that the upper level ridge will gradually break down 
on Thursday...especially the latter half of the day...as a 
positively tilted Pacific wave approaches the area from the north 
and northwest. As a result...temperatures will cool aloft while free 
air winds begin to increase out of the southwest. This will result 
in an increased surface flow from the south/southwest...especially 
during the afternoon and focused across portions of the eastern 
plains. This effect will provide increased ventilation. Higher cloud 
cover will also begin to increase as the day progresses. 


Precipitation chances will increase Thursday night with the best 
time frame for wetting precipitation Friday into Friday night. 
Models continue to vary some on the track and speed of the system 
passage but it does look like northern and eastern areas will remain 
favored as has been predicted the past few days. A vigorous back 
door cold front also remains predicted and did increase the wind 
speeds with this frontal passage during the day on Friday. 
Especially Friday afternoon and into the overnight. As far as 
critical fire weather conditions of strong winds coupled with low 
humidity on Friday...it still appears that the lowest humidity will be 
found south of the fire forecast area so concerns remain somewhat 
muted. The lowest humidity on Friday will be found across the far 
south. The east slopes of the sangre Delaware cristos looks to be 
especially favored by this event at this time. Lessening chances for 
precipitation on Saturday as drier air tries to infiltrate in from 
the west/northwest. Models are pretty consistent with that scenario. 


The models remain fairly consistent with building an upper ridge 
back over the area Sunday into Monday. This means a drying and 
warming trend with lighter wind flows and most likely lessening 
ventilation rates. Although this is middle March so the trend downward 
will be somewhat muted. The long range models such as the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) are predicting two Pacific wave passages Tuesday into 
Wednesday although...once again the duration of the event and track 
of the Pacific waves appear to be slightly askew between the two 
models. Thus...confidence higher for unsettled weather but lower on 
what type of unsettled weather. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 30 64 36 52 / 0 5 20 30 
Dulce........................... 20 59 24 44 / 0 5 20 50 
Cuba............................ 22 58 27 46 / 0 0 10 30 
Gallup.......................... 23 64 29 51 / 0 0 5 30 
El Morro........................ 23 61 30 49 / 0 0 5 30 
Grants.......................... 21 64 28 52 / 0 0 5 30 
Quemado......................... 23 64 28 55 / 0 0 5 20 
Glenwood........................ 31 71 34 65 / 0 0 0 10 
Chama........................... 18 52 21 39 / 0 5 30 60 
Los Alamos...................... 28 59 30 47 / 0 0 5 40 
Pecos........................... 26 57 31 48 / 0 0 5 30 
Cerro/Questa.................... 19 53 23 41 / 0 0 5 50 
Red River....................... 17 47 22 33 / 0 0 5 70 
Angel Fire...................... 16 49 23 36 / 0 0 5 60 
Taos............................ 24 60 27 46 / 0 0 5 50 
Espanola........................ 23 64 29 54 / 0 0 5 30 
Santa Fe........................ 28 62 32 49 / 0 0 5 30 
Santa Fe Airport................ 30 64 34 53 / 0 0 5 30 
Albuquerque foothills........... 36 66 39 58 / 0 0 0 20 
Albuquerque heights............. 38 68 41 60 / 0 0 0 20 
Albuquerque valley.............. 32 70 38 62 / 0 0 0 20 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 68 38 60 / 0 0 0 20 
Los Lunas....................... 32 69 37 63 / 0 0 0 20 
Rio Rancho...................... 34 68 39 59 / 0 0 0 20 
Socorro......................... 33 71 38 68 / 0 0 0 10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 24 58 31 51 / 0 0 0 20 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 63 31 54 / 0 0 0 20 
Clines Corners.................. 29 62 32 49 / 0 0 0 20 
Gran Quivira.................... 32 63 36 58 / 0 0 0 20 
Carrizozo....................... 34 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 10 
Ruidoso......................... 30 59 32 53 / 0 0 0 10 
Capulin......................... 24 60 29 40 / 0 0 0 60 
Raton........................... 26 67 31 45 / 0 0 0 60 
Las Vegas....................... 27 63 32 49 / 0 0 5 40 
Clayton......................... 34 71 38 41 / 0 0 0 30 
Roy............................. 31 65 34 49 / 0 0 5 40 
Conchas......................... 34 72 38 59 / 0 0 0 30 
Santa Rosa...................... 34 71 38 61 / 0 0 0 20 
Tucumcari....................... 35 74 38 58 / 0 0 0 20 
Clovis.......................... 36 70 39 63 / 0 0 0 20 
Portales........................ 35 71 38 65 / 0 0 0 10 
Fort Sumner..................... 35 71 38 63 / 0 0 0 20 
Roswell......................... 36 72 39 73 / 0 0 5 10 
Picacho......................... 33 73 37 65 / 0 0 0 10 
Elk............................. 34 66 36 59 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


44/50 

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