282 
fxus64 kepz 212209 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
309 PM MST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
a ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the region through 
the weekend and into early next week. Light winds Saturday will 
turn westerly Sunday slowly warming temperatures back to slightly 
above normal. High clouds will periodically move across the desert 
skies but conditions will remain dry. By Thanksgiving an upper 
low will drop into the Desert Southwest. Increased moisture is 
expected to move into the area and give US a chance of rain next 
Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Discussion... 
a cool day across the area today behind yesterday's cold front. 
Winds are now light out of the E/se. This is helping to keep temperatures 
down. Tonight should be a cold night with light winds and dry air 
in place. Some high clouds are to our west...but the upper ridge 
is building and most of the clouds are dissipating before reaching 
our area in subsidence. Thus mostly clear skies should help to 
cool off temperatures tonight. 


The upper ridge will strengthen over the weekend and into early 
next week. This period will be quiet weather wise. Temperatures 
will warm each day to back above normal levels as low level 
westerly flow returns. High clouds are expected to pass in and out 
of the area. 


Monday night a weak cold looks to push in from the NE. This will 
trim a few degrees off maximum temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday 
begins a change in the pattern as a West Coast upper low begins to 
move toward the region. The upper ridge will shift east and the 
first shortwave energy ahead of the mains system move across the 
County warning forecast area. Some increased moisture is pulled up from the SW. The GFS 
increases clouds and does blip out an area of precipitation over the sacs. 


The main system drops into the SW deserts late Wednesday. A deep 
moisture tap ahead of the system is aimed over our County warning forecast area. Dynamics 
suggest our first real chance at precipitation for our County warning forecast area Wednesday night/ 
Thursday as the system lifts across the area. Snow with this 
system looks reasonable above 7000 feet. The system exits the 
area Friday as a short-lived ridge follows the trough. Upstream 
another deep upper level system looks to drop down the California 
coast. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 22/0000z-23/0000z... 
VFR conditions along with light and variable winds will prevail 
through the period. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
upper level ridging across the west...with surface high over the 
Great Plains...will result in dry conditions with light winds over 
the next several days. Temperatures will slowly warm up to near 
normal by Sunday. However...shallow mixing heights and light low 
level winds will result in poor transport winds across much of the 
region trough the weekend. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will 
result in some improvement early next week...as a rather unsettled 
pattern looks to set up for the southwest for the middle and latter 
parts of next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 30 65 37 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 28 60 32 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 28 62 33 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 27 61 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 20 47 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 26 60 31 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 27 58 31 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 26 62 31 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 27 63 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


14 bird/hardiman