747 
fxus64 kepz 141019 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
419 am MDT sun Mar 14 2010 


Synopsis... 
an upper level low pressure system with a cold front will move 
southward through southern New Mexico and western Texas tonight 
and Monday. This storm will cause increasing winds this afternoon 
with lowland rain showers and mountain snows mainly tonight and 
Monday. Temperatures will also become much cooler on Monday after 
the cold front moves through the region. High pressure and 
westerly winds will result in dry weather on Tuesday through the 
remainder of next week with temperatures gradually warming. 


&& 


Discussion... 
upper low was entering northwest Arizona early this morning with 
latest guidance indicating a track across the Silver City vicinity 
to near Columbus by 18z with system diving further southeastward 
across Mexico tomorrow afternoon. Initially the system will induce 
surface Lee troughing through southeast New Mexico today while middle 
level gradients strengthen as low slowly approaches. As a result 
expect increasing west winds this afternoon with mild dry weather 
through at least late afternoon. 


As system enters the County Warning Area late tonight/early Monday the region 
will become located in left front quadrant of 100 knots jet streak 
nosing into north central Mexico while strong DPVA spreads over 
New Mexico and West Texas. Thus dynamic lift will be on the 
increase. In addition surface cold front will push southward with 
rather strong boundary layer cold advection. These factors will 
cause cooling through low and middle levels. Associated deepening 
upward motion will also produce precipitation over much of the 
County Warning Area...especially east of the Rio Grande. However strongest upslope 
over the Sacramento Mountains will likely begin after 12z Monday 
when low moves south of the border. Accordingly will start Winter 
Storm Watch at midnight although heavier snow will probably not 
begin until around 12z Monday. Elsewhere temperature forecasts suggest 
mostly rain over the lower elevations below 6000 feet. High 
temperatures will also be around 15 degrees below normal on Monday 
behind the cold front. 


Gradual clearing and drying should occur Monday night as low moves 
east and ridge builds west of The Divide. Ridge flattens by 
Wednesday afternoon with a more zonal flow likely the remainder 
of the week. Expect westerly flow to transport seasonably warm dry 
air into the County Warning Area later periods with temperatures climbing to 
around normal. Embedded short waves and Lee troughing to the east 
may produce breezy to windy conditions Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
an upper level low pressure system with a cold front will move 
southward through southern New Mexico and western Texas this 
evening through Monday morning. This system will produce windy 
conditions this afternoon with wind gusts near 40 miles per hour and moderate 
or greater turbulence below 7000 feet above ground level. There will also be 
scattered areas of MVFR ceilings and visibilities with isolated 
IFR conditions tonight and Monday Monday in mountains snow showers 
and lowland rain showers. Areas of icing also possible tonight and 
Monday morning between 6000 and 8000 feet mean sea level. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
an upper level low pressure system with a cold front will move 
southward through southern New Mexico and western Texas this 
evening through Monday morning. This system will produce mostly 
dry and windy conditions this afternoon with wind gusts near 40 
miles per hour. However this evening through Monday isolated to scattered 
rain showers will occur over The Lowlands with snows over the 
higher mountains...especially east of the Rio Grande. Snow amounts 
may range from 6 to 12 inches over the Sacramento Mountains with 
up to 3 inches possible over the gilas above 7000 feet. 
Temperatures also cooling around 15 degrees on Monday. 


High pressure followed by a more westerly flow will result in dry 
weather Tuesday through Saturday with warming temperatures and 
lowering daytime humidities. Possibly becoming breezy to windy 
Thursday and Friday as upper disturbances move across the southern 
rockies. These conditions will result in a slowly increasing fire 
danger later periods. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 73 42 56 37 62 / 0 10 30 10 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 72 39 52 33 61 / 0 10 50 10 0 
Las Cruces 71 39 55 33 61 / 10 10 30 10 0 
Alamogordo 67 38 53 30 58 / 10 20 40 10 0 
Cloudcroft 49 24 34 19 43 / 10 40 70 20 0 
Truth or Consequences 69 37 54 30 59 / 10 20 20 10 0 
Silver City 58 31 47 28 50 / 20 20 10 10 0 
Deming 68 38 57 33 61 / 10 10 10 10 0 
Lordsburg 62 35 62 33 64 / 10 10 10 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon 
for nmz025. 


Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


05 rogash