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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
319 am MST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Discussion... 
hort term (today-monday)...generally tranquil and benign weather 
pattern in place for this period with generally zonal west northwest 
flow aloft until Monday when a high amplitude 500 mb ridge pushes 
into the Rocky Mountains from the West Coast. Also on Monday...on 
the downstream side of the 500 mb ridge...a 1029 mb surface high 
translates south along the Front Range into northeast New 
Mexico...pushing a moderate back door cold front south through the 
eastern plains of New Mexico and the central sections of the state. 
East winds are expected in the abq metropolitan before noon on Monday. 
Temperatures will remain above climate norms during the period and 
skies will be mostly clear except for occasional passing high and 
some middle level clouds originating from a weak upper level 
disturbance entrained into the subtropical jet moving across socal 
and Baja California California. 


Long term (monday night-friday) the GFS...ECMWF...UKMET all depict a 
dynamic 500 mb long wave trough to dig south along the West Coast on 
Tuesday...with a trough axis extending well south to offshore from 
Baja California California and a vigorous 500 mb shortwave low center 
approaching the central California coast. The European model (ecmwf) brings a 555h5 
low center onshore near Monterey Bay on Wednesday 12 UTC...while the 
GFS brings a 559h5 low center onshore further south near Point 
Conception on Wednesday 06 UTC. Thereafter...both models develop 
a large 500 mb upper low across the western US from Washington to 
Arizona...spreading a broad area of precipitation and unsettled weather 
from the southwest through the northern rockies from Wednesday 
through Friday. 


Model consensus continues problematic. As described previously... 
there are important variations in movement...intensity...orientation 
..and eventual track of this upper low center and trough. We are 
... Our forecast on the GFS. We expect consensus 
and details to emerge as this storm system approaches the 
observation network arrayed across the West Coast. 


Currently the GFS is more progressive and energetic than the 
European model (ecmwf)...bringing the first major area of precipitation associated 
with the storm into the western portions of the state late 
Wednesday. The cold core of the storm and additional precipitation 
arrives into western portions of New Mexico on Thanksgiving 
afternoon then continues to sweep through during the evening into 
Friday morning. 


Current GFS guidance indicates...we can expect a brief respite from 
stormy conditions on Friday before another round of stormy 
conditions over the weekend. However...we have lower confidence 
given the large variation in model guidance at this longer range. 


01 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions to prevail across northern and central New Mexico and 
at all taf sites. No aviation weather hazards are anticipated for at 
least the next 24 hours. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 22z. 05 


&& 


Fire weather... 
under the influence of high pressure...dry and tranquil weather will 
continue today. Light winds will result poor ventilation most 
areas. Temperatures will rebound most areas and by 15 to 20 degrees 
across the east where they will be accompanied by dramatic decreases 
in relative humidity. On Sunday...a short wave passes north of the 
state and winds will increase... especially east of the central 
mountains. Ventilation will improve on Sunday in response to the 
stronger winds at the surface and aloft. Minimum relative humidity of less than 15 
percent across the east combined with the stronger winds may result 
in an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions. A surface 
boundary moves into the northeast Sunday afternoon and through the 
remainder of the east overnight. High pressure builds over the 
state on Monday. Winds decrease and ventilation also decreases with 
poor to fair ventilation expected most areas. Extended models 
indicate that a dramatic chance is in store middle week...mostly likely 
Wednesday through Thursday. Isolated to scattered rain and higher 
elevation snow showers are currently forecast to develop across the 
west on Wednesday and increase statewide on Thursday. 


05 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 58 29 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 60 17 59 18 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 60 21 59 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 68 28 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 54 16 55 14 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 58 23 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 50 14 51 17 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 57 17 57 19 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 58 28 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 58 28 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 62 27 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 60 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 62 31 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 61 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 33 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 64 30 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 29 56 28 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 27 62 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 62 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 59 36 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 61 21 61 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 62 28 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 59 33 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 59 34 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 67 34 70 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 63 35 68 30 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 66 33 70 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 63 35 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 64 33 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 68 34 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


01/05